Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 241923
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
323 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG THAT COVERED MUCH OF UPPER MI THIS MORNING HAS BEEN QUICKLY
DIMINISHING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS MID LEVEL CLOUDS CLEAR FROM W
TO E. EXPECT THE FOG TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.

MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH WINDS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVES OVER FAR
NERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ADJACENT PARTS OF ONTARIO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z
TONIGHT. A SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSES TO THE NE...BUT WITH MOISTURE QUITE LIMITED AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAINLY NE OF THE CWA...PRECIP WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. DID KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER FAR NERN
LUCE COUNTY CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE PATH. ONLY EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH THE SHORTWAVE PASSAGE MAINLY OVER THE ERN/NERN CWA.
HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS CURRENTLY
SPREADING FROM SERN MN INTO WRN WI WILL ADVECT INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL UPPER MI TONIGHT BEFORE BEING SWEPT SE BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.

NOW FOR THE WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE
TIGHT BETWEEN THE 987MB SFC LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND THE 1020MB RIDGE
STRETCHED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND IA...BUT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF
AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING
WNW 925MB WINDS OF 38-45KTS ACROSS SRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN UPPER MI AT
18Z...STRENGTHENING TO 40-50KTS AT 00Z SUN. IF COLDER AIR WAS MOVING
IN BEHIND THE FRONT /SHOULD STILL BE ABOVE 0C AT 850MB/ AND THERE
WAS MORE OF AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT...WINDS WOULD LIKELY GUST TO
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE KEWEENAW AND POSSIBLE NERN UPPER MI
NEAR THE SHORE ON SAT. HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECT GUSTS TO 40MPH MAX IN
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FAVORED AREAS. DO THINK WINDS JUSTIFY A
GALE WATCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR...WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH THE LONG
TERM FORECASTER TO BE ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON LAKE PACKAGE.

OTHERWISE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 50S ON SAT UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NAM SHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS 12Z SAT WITH A
TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST AND ONE DIPPING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN AND THIS RIDGE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES 00Z MON WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO ROCKIES 12Z MON. DEEPER
MOISTURE AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE MOVE INTO THE CWA SUN NIGHT. THIS
PERIOD LOOKS QUIET WITH PCPN MOVING IN FOR SUN NIGHT AND BRING IN
CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE. SATURDAY LOOKS BREEZY WITH PCPN AND CLOUDS
STAYING WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
U.S. WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SERN U.S. 12Z MON. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS 12Z TUE AND THEN NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES 12Z
WED. ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES 12Z THU WHICH
WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHAT THIS
WILL MEAN IS TEMPERATURES WILL GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR PCPN MOST PERIODS WITH VERY LITTLE DRY WEATHER.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

POOR CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT OF KSAW WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
OTHERWISE...PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT IS AT KSAW WHERE LLWS MAY OCCUR.
ALSO...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS OVER WI TODAY MAY ADVECT OVER KSAW
TONIGHT AS SW LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. LIFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA...CAUSING CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE DRY AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR FRIDAY...GUSTY W WINDS WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER JAMES BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BELOW 20KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TO AROUND 30KTS. WITH LIMITED COLD
AIR SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE ON SATURDAY...THE MARINE
LAYER WILL LIKELY KEEP SURFACE WINDS BELOW GALES. BUT HIGHER
PLATFORMS SHOULD TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND GUST TO 35KT
GALES. THESE STRONGER WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AND THEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND DIMINISH WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT (TO 25KTS)
BEFORE SHIFTING EASTERLY BY MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ265>267.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...SRF






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