Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 010735
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
335 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

NOT MUCH OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER LOW
SPINS NEAR JAMES BAY...SENDING SHORTWAVE ENERGY THROUGH THE REGION
ON A FAIRLY REGULAR BASIS. PREDOMINANT SHORTWAVE RIGHT NOW IS JUST
SW OF THE CWA AND HAS SPARKED SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WHERE THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN BREEZES HAVE
COLLIDED. NOW THAT MUCH OF THE ERN CWA IS BEING DOMINATED BY THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE LAKE BREEZES...MOST DIURNAL SHOWERS HAVE
FADED. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE IS JUST N OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN A CU FIELD IS OCCURRING WITH
THAT...AND NO ADDITIONAL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THAT SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER OVER THE ERN
CWA TONIGHT...BUT THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AS SUCH...LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. COULD SEE SOME FOG
FORM INLAND TONIGHT AS WELL.

YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE...A LITTLE MORE POTENT THAN THE ONE CURRENTLY
SW OF THE CWA...WILL MOVE AGAIN ACROSS OR SLIGHTLY SW OF THE CWA FRI
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GREATER DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN TODAY DUE TO A PLUME OF HIGHER
MOISTURE THAT WILL MOVE IN. BEST AREA FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
OVER THE SCENTRAL AND ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE LAKE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. MLCAPE
VALUES LOOK TO BE 400-800J/KG OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORED AREAS
AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR SHOULD BE 20-25KTS. WITH THIS...COULD SEE SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION...BUT SHOULD ONLY BE TO THE POINT OF SOME PEA
SIZED HAIL AT WORST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE SHOWER/TS CHCS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN PERSISTENT NW FLOW ALF THAT
WL LINGER INTO THE COMING WEEK BTWN A MEAN UPR RDG OVER THE ROCKIES
AND A TROF IN QUEBEC. TIMING THESE SHRTWVS IS DIFFICULT AND LOWERS
THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN FCST. TEMPS THRU THE NEXT WEEK WL
GENERALLY BE AOB NORMAL WITH AN ABSENCE OF ANY ANOMALOUS WARMTH
UNDER THE GENERAL NW FLOW ALF.

SAT...SFC HI PRES UNDER SHRTWV RDG AXIS/AREA OF MID LVL DRY AIR
CROSSING THE UPR LKS SHOULD BRING DRY WX TO UPR MI. SOME SHOWERS
COULD ARRIVE LATE OVER NW PORTIONS OF LK SUP WITH PASSAGE OF SHRTWVS
THRU FAR NW ONTARIO AND ARRIVAL OF BAND OF DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR
CNVGC/H85 THETA E ADVCTN INTO THAT AREA AHEAD OF ATTENDANT SFC COLD
FNT BY 00Z SUN...BUT WL MAINTAIN GOING DRY FCST FOR THE LAND CWA
WITH SFC HI PRES LINGERING OVER THE E HALF OF UPR MI AND DRY MID LVL
AIR/MID LVL SUBSIDENCE INVRN STILL IN PLACE THRU 00Z SUN. ALTHOUGH
THE 00Z GFS GENERATES SOME PCPN OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF IN THE
AFTN...ITS FCST SDNGS SHOW A MID LVL SUBIDENCE INVRN ABV WELL MIXED
PBL THAT WOULD FAVOR DRY WX. WITH H85 TEMPS REACHING ARND 15C OVER
THE W LATE IN THE AFTN...EXPECT HI TEMPS TO REACH THE LO 80S OVER
THE INTERIOR W.

SAT NGT THRU SUN...SHOWER CHCS WL INCRS AS BAND OF DPVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC/HIER H85-5 RH ARRIVES FM THE NW TO THE SW OF SHRTWVS
CROSSING NW ONTARIO. VARIOUS MODELS SHOW SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES/ASSOCIATED FORCING...SO WL
TEND TO RELY ON A CONSENSUS FCST. SINCE THE GUIDANCE INDICATES  AN
ABSENCE OF SGFNT H85 THETA E ADVCTN ON SAT NGT IN ADVANCE OF A SFC
COLD FNT APRCHG FM THE NW...ONLY LOWER CHC POPS ARE APPROPRIATE FOR
THAT PERIOD IN THE PRESENCE OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. WITH THE RETURN OF
DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ON SUN...WL GO WITH HIER CHC POPS
FOR SHOWERS/TS AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS FCST ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SCENTRAL CWA...WHERE THE SFC FNT IS MORE LIKELY TO ARRIVE IN BETTER
SYNC WITH THE HEATING AND POSSIBLY INTERACT WITH LK BREEZE BNDRY OFF
LK MI. EXPECT THE LOWER MIN TEMPS ON SAT NGT TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR
E AND SCENTRAL CLOSER TO THE RETREATING DRY AIR/SFC HI PRES. MAX
TEMPS ON SUN ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE 70S AWAY FM LK COOLING WITH H85
TEMPS PEAKING AT 12-14C.

SUN NGT/MON...ALTHOUGH VARIOUS MODELS INDICATE OTHER SHRTWVS MAY DIG
SEWD INTO THE UPR LKS...OVERALL MID LVL DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE
INITIAL DISTURBANCE/COLD FROPA RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SUN POPS SHOULD
LOWER THE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD. SEEMS THE BEST CHC FOR SHOWERS/TS
WOULD BE OVER THE SCENTRAL ON SUN EVNG IF THE INITIAL SHRTWV IS
SLOWER TO PASS. WL RETAIN SOME LO CHC POPS ON MON OVER MAINLY THE
SCENTRAL AWAY FM STABILIZATION OFF LK SUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHC A
TRAILING SHRTWV WITHIN THE PREVAILING NW FLOW ALF IS STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED AND CAN INTERACT WITH SOME LK BREEZE BNDRYS. MAINTAINED
MENTION OF SOME FOG ON SUN NGT WITH MID LVL DRYING OVER SOME RA
MOISTENED LLVLS WITH LGT N WINDS OFF LK SUP.

EXTENDED...WL RELY ON MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN PERSISTENT TRICKY NW
FLOW ALF/POTENTIAL FOR SHRTWVS TO TRACK THRU THE UPR LKS AND
GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/TS. BULK OF THE MODELS INDICATE HI PRES WL
DOMINATE MOST OF THE TIME...SO ANY POPS WL BE ON THE SCHC SIDE AND
MAINLY OVER THE SCENTRAL AWAY FM THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF HI
PRES THAT WL BE OVER LK SUP MUCH OF THE TIME EXCEPT WHEN AND IF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE MIGHT PASS BY.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT LAKE BREEZES
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES ON FRIDAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TYPICAL OF SUMMER DOMINATING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...EXPECT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS THROUGH TUE. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG WITH RELATIVELY HUMID AIR OVER THE CHILLY
LAKE WATERS INTO MON...NO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS LIKELY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC



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