Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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642
FXUS63 KMQT 291955
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
355 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OVER
MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES REGION LATE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS...THIS FEATURE WILL ONLY BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
FOR SATURDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH
DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF RATHER QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. NORTHEAST FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT
COOLING OVER THE NORTHERN U.P. AND MAY INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FOG
ALONG THE SHORELINE AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS WITH LOWERING
INVERSION HEIGHTS.

850 MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR SATURDAY THAN TODAY AND WITH SOME
THICKENING OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE 5H TROUGH AND
THUS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR HIGHS. HAVE ALSO TRENDED
STRONGER WITH WINDS OVER WESTERN U. P. SHORES AND LAKE SUPERIOR PER
LATEST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WHICH SHOW POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS
FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 442 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY PERSISTENT PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND
BEYOND WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER WRN NORTH AMERICA WHICH
WILL IN TURN INDUCE A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS ERN NORTH AMERICA.
THIS RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN WILL REACH ITS PEAK AMPLITUDE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND WILL KEEP THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A
GENERALLY DRY NW FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME OF THE
MODELS...NAMELY THE GFS AND CANADIAN...SUGGEST POTENTIALLY STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEING FORCED MORE SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN THE TUE-WED TIME FRAME WHEN THE WRN NORTH AMERICA RIDGE
REACHES PEAK AMPLITUDE. AN ASSOC COLD FRONT PASSAGE WL ACCOMPANY THE
SHORTWAVE EITHER LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT AND COULD BRING A CHC FOR -SHRA
TUE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WED...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE EXPECTED PATTERN MOSTLY FAVORS NORMAL TO BLO
NORMAL TEMPS FOR UPPER MI. AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES...AN OVERALL DRY COLUMN ON MOST DAYS AS NOTED ON MODEL
SOUNDING AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF .5 INCH OR LESS MOST DAYS
WILL SUPPORT RATHER LARGE TEMP RANGES FROM NIGHTLY MINS TO AFTN
MAXES. THRU THE WEEKEND...TEMPS AT NIGHT WILL LIKELY DROP TO OR BLO
FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR COLDER AREAS. AFTN TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO
UPPER 50S AROUND 60F AWAY FROM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME WARMING WILL BEGIN MON...BUT PROBABLY MORE SO TUE AS W
TO SW FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT WHICH
SHOULD ARRIVE TUE NIGHT. HOW WARM TUE TEMPS GET WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT SOME LOCATIONS COULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 60S. IF QUICKER 00Z GFS AND GEM SOLUTIONS VERIFY WITH FRONTAL
TIMING TUE AFTERNOON...CLOUDS MAY ALSO ROLL IN QUICKER KEEPING TEMPS
COOLER THAN EXPECTED ON TUE. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR WED...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...AS HIGH PRES
BUILDING BACK IN FM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE BY
THU AS THE 8H THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTS E.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. WITH
NE FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE IS A CONCERN THAT SOME PATCHY FOG
MAY IMPACT KCMX AND KSAW OVERNIGHT DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW...CLEARING
SKIES AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS. THIS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR RANGE AFTER 9Z. AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL IS SMALL...
ESPECIALLY FOR KSAW...BUT DOES EXIST. WILL NOT MENTION THIS IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING NE WINDS OVER
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA. HIGHEST
SPEEDS AND GUSTS EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES HAVE THE
GREATEST IMPACT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE 5H TROUGH WITH WINDS REMAINING UNDER 20
KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJT
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...RJT



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