Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 281854
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
254 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WRAP AROUND SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ARE STEADILY
MOVING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE
AFFECTING THE WEST HALF OF THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COLD FRONT JUST CROSSING THE MN/ONTARIO
BORDER AT 18Z. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO THE KEWEENAW. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR WESTERLY WINDS TO GUST TO 40-45 MPH N OF HOUGHTON LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SEE SOCIAL MEDIA AND SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT ON FURTHER DETAILS ON THE WIND ACROSS THE KEWEENAW
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BEHIND THE FRONT PCPN HAS CHANGED
TO SNOW OVER NW ONTARIO UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT.  THE FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH
850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -6C BY 12Z WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LAKE
ENHANCED PCPN TO DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN NW FLOW. IN
ADDITION...THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE /WITH SOME INTERIOR SPOTS
SEEING THE FREEZING LEVEL DROPPING BELOW 500 FT/ SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF MARQUETTE. IN
FACT...SOME PLACES BY WED MORNING ACROSS INTERIOR WEST HALF MAY SEE
A DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE GROUND...ALTHOUGH ROADS SHOULD NOT BE
IMPACTED WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING TO THE MID 30S.

THE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE
EAST WED MORNING...LEADING TO A WEAK SFC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH INVERSIONS RATHER LOW
DESPITE 850MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND -6C...EXPECT ANY LAKE EFFECT
PCPN TO DIMINISH DURING THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST WHERE
HEIGHTS WILL START TO RISE WED AFTN. AS SUCH...WILL ALLOW FOR LIKELY
POPS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE EAST IN THE MORNING BECOMING SMALL CHANCE
POPS IN THE AFTN. IN THE WEST...WILL END ANY POPS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. IN FACT...WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF MANY PLACES SEE SOME
BROKEN AREAS OF SUNSHINE WED AFTN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. WILL BE A
CHILLY DAY THOUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO RISE OUT OF THE
30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 553 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

...SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL BE SLIDING EAST TOWARD
QUEBEC TO START DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SFC LOW NEAR 990MB WILL BE IN THE
VCNTY OF JAMES BAY. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE LOW LOWERS H85
TEMPS TO -5C. SOUNDINGS SHOW HIGH RH THROUGH H7 AT 12Z...BUT THIS
DIMINISHES TO 925-850MB MOIST LAYER THROUGH MORNING IN WEST AND IN
THE AFTN EAST. INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 2-3KFT WEST AND 3-4KFT EAST DO
NOT CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY OR EVEN INTO THE EVENING BUT THERE IS
DRYING BLO CLOUD BASE. WITH WATER TEMPS AROUND 6C...LOOKING AT
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND MORE SO FOR PURE LAKE
EFFECT. POPS HIGHEST FOR NW FLOW AREAS DURING THE MORNING. BREEZY
NEAR LK SUPERIOR...MAINLY EAST OF MARQUETTE. COULD SEE GUSTS IN
THOSE AREAS OVER 30 MPH AROUND DAYBREAK. SMALL POPS FOR STUBBORN
LAKE EFFECT WERE RETAINED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SFC CONVERGENCE MORE
OVR NCNTRL VCNTY OF MARQUETTE AND MUNISING WHICH IS WHERE HIGHEST
POPS WILL BE FEATURED.

INTO THURSDAY...FIRST PART OF THE DAY WILL BE A TIME OF TRANSITION.
SOME HINT THAT SHORTWAVE/MID-LEVEL RH SWINGS OVER THE AREA. PROBABLY
WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW...THOUGH PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT. LATE IN
THE DAY DIGS TOWARD LK SUPERIOR FM MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO.
THIS WAVE HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND WILL
SERVE TO BUCKLE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FM WNW TO SHARPER NNE-N INTO
FRIDAY. APPEARING LIKELY THAT ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP ALONG MUCH OF LK SUPERIOR LATER
THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THURSDAY NIGHT. BASED
ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...THOUGH THERE IS A LITTLE LINGERING LAYER OF
WARM AIR BLO H9...REST OF SOUNDING IS BLO 0C. PROFILES INDICATE
UNSTABLE PROFILE THROUGH H6...RESULTING IN LAKE INDUCED CAPES UPWARD
OF 500J/KG. A LOT OF LIFT IS LOCATED WITHIN MOIST LAYER AND BULK OF
MOISTURE/LIFT IS OCCURRING WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR BLO -10C. THINK WE
ARE LOOKING AT FIRST WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EVENT OF THE SEASON AND
SINCE TEMPS FALL INTO THE UPR 20S TO LOWER 30S AND SNOWFALL RATES ON
THURSDAY NIGHT COULD BE AT LEAST MODERATE...LIKELY WILL BE SEEING EVEN
AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW EVEN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR LK SUPERIOR.
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS MAY SEE AT LEAST AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. ADDED
TO THE SNOW WILL BE GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 30-40 MPH AS THE
DEEP MIXING/COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING DOWN STRONG H9-H85 WINDS.
TIME TO MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND WILL DO THAT
THIS MORNING.

LATER FRIDAY MORNING...DIRECT IMPACT FM THE SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER
MOISTURE FADE. ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS. STILL... UPPER
TROUGHING AND THERMAL TROUGHING IS ALIVE AND WELL ON FRIDAY WITH
H85 TEMPS DOWN TO -12C AND THOSE TEMPS OCCURRING WITHIN MOIST LAYER
WHICH WILL EXTEND UP TO 5-8KFT. THUS...SHOULD BE PLENTY OF ICE
CRYSTALS TO SEED FM ALOFT LEADING TO HIGHER SLR/S. HAVE LIKELY POPS
INTO THE AFTN FOR AREAS FAVORED BY NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS. WILL
SEE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMS NEAR LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY NORTH
CNTRL. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AND CONVERGENT FLOW...COULD
SEE SNOW SHOWERS MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS DELTA AND NORTHERN
MENOMINEE COUNTIES. STRONGEST WINDS DIMINISH BY MID-LATE AFTN. BY
FRIDAY EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING BUT STILL WILL BE COOL
AND BLUSTERY WITH ISOLD OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

REST OF THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE FURTHER IMPROVEMENT INTO SATURDAY
AS SFC RIDGE ARRIVES /NOT BEFORE A COLD NIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTERIOR WEST THOUGH/. THE PASSAGE OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO
SOUTHWEST BY LATER SATURDAY. WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR...BUT STILL
LOOKING AT HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE MID-UPR 30S NEAR LK
SUPERIOR AND IN LOWER 40S SCNTRL. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS ON
SUNDAY. MIX OF RAIN/SNOW CHANGING TO RAIN AS EVAPORATIVE COOLING
DOMINATES A GENERAL WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP REGIME AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING PLAINS LOW. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP SHOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH
MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY REACH IFR AT CMX THIS AFTERNOON
DUE TO WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. IN ADDITION...WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE
QUITE GUSTY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT
CMX WHERE THERE COULD BE WIND GUSTS OF 30-35KT. AFTER THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING...SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS OF RAIN OR EVEN SNOW TO DEVELOP
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...CIGS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ALL SITES MAY SEE CIGS DROP BELOW 2000 FT WHICH
IS FUEL ALTERNATE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 253 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014
LOW PRESSURE AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. A SHORT PERIOD OF WESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSE TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER MI SHORELINE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT NW AND DIMINISH TO 20 TO
30 KT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ON WED BEFORE A STRONG AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEST INTO THE UPPER MS VLY THU INTO FRI AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR N-NE GALE FORCE GUSTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE LAKE THROUGH
FRI MORNING BEFORE THE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-
     240>244-263-264.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...MRD






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