Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
237 FXUS65 KMSO 141829 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1229 PM MDT Tue May 14 2024 .DISCUSSION...This afternoon, expect showers and isolated thunderstorms to persist due to instability. Radar projections indicate these will mainly cluster along and east of Highway 93, from Kalispell to Stevensville and east along the Divide, including Butte. Wednesday will trend warmer and drier with afternoon breezes. Model guidance suggests a trough moving south from Canada into the region on Thursday and Friday, primarily bringing gusty winds. There`s a high probability (70-90%) of widespread wind gusts reaching 30 mph, with some areas, especially mid-slopes and higher elevations, seeing gusts of 40 mph. Lakes, notably Flathead Lake, can anticipate choppy conditions in the afternoon and evening. However, there`s uncertainty about the depth of this trough, leading to uncertain precipitation forecasts on Friday for most of the region, although northwest Montana is expected to have showery conditions. Recent weather models, both traditional and machine learning, have struggled to predict smaller-scale details in the Northeast Pacific, affecting forecasts for the Northern Rockies. While a composite of model solutions suggests a progressive system with cooler temperatures and shower chances, there`s variability in predictions. Towards the weekend, about 20% of models suggest a colder, wetter trough over central Idaho and western Montana. By the middle of next week, approximately 55% of models predict a wet trough over the region, potentially leading to mountain snow accumulations. && .AVIATION...This afternoon`s satellite loops show cumulus clouds forming, indicating a destabilizing atmosphere. Radar projections concentrate most shower activity between KGPI-KMSO-KBTM through the afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest marginal lift, supporting isolated thunderstorms, particularly near KBTM. Shower chances will persist into the evening before skies clear overnight. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$