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000
FXUS66 KMTR 191134
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
434 AM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 215 AM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Cooler conditions are expected today and tomorrow with light drizzle
possible each morning. Temperatures rebound late weekend and early
next week. A return to unsettled conditions arrives Tuesday and
persist throughout late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 215 AM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A well defined marine layer is in place this morning (around 1800-
2000 ft per Fort Ord Profiler) and will support patchy drizzle in
the upslope regions this morning. Otherwise, this afternoon sunny
conditions will return to inland areas with temperatures expected to
warm into the low to mid 70s. Meanwhile, the coast remains in the
upper 50s to mid 60s under mostly cloudy conditions.

Tonight, expecting clouds to make a return back inland and become
more widespread with low temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Again, patchy drizzle will once again be possible. Saturday will
feature slightly warmer temperatures inland, but only by a few
degrees. Wind will also be on the increase with breezy northwest
winds near the coast, in the coastal hills, and into the region`s
valleys. Looking for gusts of 25-35 mph in these areas by Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 215 AM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

By Sunday and Monday, ridging dominates the pattern once again with
interior areas warming to near 80 degrees with 60s and 70s as one
gets closer to the coast. By Tuesday, a change to more unsettled
conditions return as an upper level low approaches the region. This
pattern will persist throughout late week and points to possible wet
weather during the latter half of the week. However, there is no
major concerns for flooding and may end up being widespread light
drizzle if not light rain. Temperatures also turn cooler with highs
in the upper 50s at the coast and mid-to-upper 60s inland from
Tuesday throughout late week. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 434 AM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Conditions across the region at this time range from VFR-IFR.
Satellite imagery shows coastal stratus continuing to develop
inland. Light onshore flow will continue to help move stratus
inland, bringing low CIGs for most terminals this morning. Towards
the late morning to early afternoon today, stratus should begin to
mix out and recede, ushering in widespread VFR conditions. Winds
onshore and breezy this afternoon, then easing to become light into
the nighttime hours. Stratus is expected to make a return in the
late night of Friday to early morning of Saturday, bringing MVFR
conditions to near-shore terminals.


Vicinity of SFO...Low clouds continue to aggressively push closer to
the KSFO terminal this morning. Model agreement in the earlier TAF
issuance period did not indicate any significant stratus push into
the terminal, however, current satellite imagery suggests KSFO will
very likely develop MVFR CIGs shortly. Models continue to indicate
conditions remaining VFR at KSFO, but given current imagery, models
appear to be missing the mark entirely. As a result, extra attention
is likely needed for the TAF this morning as conditions change. Have
updated the KSFO TAF to reflect MVFR conditions as a result of
stratus CIGs through at least sunrise this morning. Otherwise,
starting in the late morning, KSFO should achieve VFR conditions.
VFR then lasts through the remainder of the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Low clouds will impact the approach, bringing
MVFR/IFR CIGs.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR conditions persist through the morning.
Low clouds will be slow to recede and mix out. As a result, VFR not
expected to return until the late morning to early afternoon today.
Winds onshore and breezy in the afternoon, then easing to become
light towards sunset with stratus and MVFR CIGs making a return
around the same time.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 434 AM PDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Moderate breezes out of the northwest and fair weather prevail
over much of the waters through at least Saturday afternoon. Come
the evening of Saturday, northwesterly winds increase to become
strong and gusty. Swell builds into Sunday out of the northwest as
gusty conditions continue but look to diminish towards the middle
part of the next week. Light southerly swell continues to move
through the waters this weekend and through the next work week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AC

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