Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
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226 FXUS63 KOAX 040437 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1137 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms are expected this evening into the overnight hours with a 5 to 10% chance of damaging hail and wind. - There is a chance of severe thunderstorms (15 to 30 percent chance) Monday afternoon and evening. - Additional chances for showers and storms possible through the end of the week, but no organized threat for severe storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 This afternoon - Saturday: There are still some high clouds around the area this afternoon, causing some echos to show up on radar, but we`re not seeing anything reach the ground. Winds are out of the southeast and temperatures are in the upper 60s to around 70 here around 2 PM, and should rise into the low 70s for highs this afternoon. We`re watching a cold front associated with a low pressure system out over the Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon which will move through overnight tonight. This will bring a line of showers and thunderstorms through around 10 PM to 6 AM. We are under a marginal risk for severe weather from the Storm Prediction Center. The environment out ahead of the cold front does have up to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE indicating enough instability for thunderstorms, and combined with 50-60 kt of 0-6 km Bulk Shear indicates a threat of up to quarter-size hail and damaging winds. This line should move through fairly quickly, but we could see up to an inch or more of rain in places. Once the main line moves through, expect a post-frontal rain shield to trail the main line, tapering off an hour or two later. Low clouds will hang around through the morning on Saturday, with the sun coming out Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will be a bit cooler with highs only in the low-to-mid 60s with breezy winds out of the north gusting to 25 mph in the morning, dropping off during the afternoon. Sunday-Monday: Another upper-level trough will start to dig into the Four- Corners region on Sunday, approaching our area. Sunday should be a fairly nice day with light winds in the morning becoming southeasterly and starting to increase during the afternoon ahead of the approaching system. Temperatures will stay on the cooler side with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s. We`ll see the surface low start to develop on the lee side of the Rockies Sunday evening with a surge of moisture lifting north out of the Gulf of Mexico associated with the Low-Level Jet across central and eastern Nebraska. We probably won`t see precipitation start Sunday night, but we`ll see increasing clouds with chances for rain starting Monday morning. We`ll want to watch Monday evening for potential severe weather as the main upper-level wave pushes the dry-line across our area. This is our best opportunity for severe weather, with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all possible. There is some possibility that stronger storms developing to our south cut off a lot of our moisture which could limit our severe potential, as the greater severe weather threat does appear to be to our south. We do still want to monitor this time frame, though. Storms do appear likely to be out of our area by Tuesday morning. Tuesday-Thursday: No other notable severe weather risks to mention through the rest of the forecast. We do see a shortwave move through Tuesday night that could bring another round of more modest storms through Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Through the end of the week we see a broad trough set up across much of the central CONUS with a fairly baroclinic pattern that could bring additional low chances for showers and storms, but no organized threat for severe weather. High temperatures stay in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1132 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024 The main concern of the TAF period continues to be the line of storms moving into eastern Nebraska over the next few hours. Those storms have already moved into the KOFK vicinity with lightning and rain, though ceilings and visibilities have yet to take a hit into MVFR or lower. Gusts as strong as 40 kts appear likely at KLNK when the line arrives around 0530 to 0600z, while areas north near KOMA see less intense storms with gusts as strong as 30 kts from 0645 to 0800z. Ceilings and visibilities are expected to take a hit behind the main line, with low-end MVFR ceilings and visibilities forecast through around or just after sunrise, with the area seeing clouds move out by late afternoon. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...McCoy AVIATION...Petersen