Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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856 FXUS64 KOHX 140140 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 840 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 829 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Nice and quiet at update time this evening. Light sprinkly rain has moved out of here and into KY and these quiet conditions are expected for the next several hours. However, before sunrise, CAMs continue to develop showers and thunderstorms in our west, traversing the mid-state through the mid-morning hours. These should be garden-variety storms, but will likely produce brief heavy rain and some decent rumbles of thunder. CAMs also want to develop a second round of storms for the afternoon/evening hours tomorrow. If you didn`t see, SPC spread a Marginal Risk over the entire mid-state tomorrow, and from the looks of it, for good reason. I don`t expect anything widespread in the severe category, but after pouring over forecast soundings, they are proving to be interesting. Lapse rates approaching 7.0 deg/km, CAPE values in the 1200-1500 J/Kg range and several algorithm parameters suggesting the potential for a couple strong to severe wind gusts tomorrow. However, there are a couple of limiting factors, from what I`m seeing. Shear is lacking. Not greatly lacking, but 20 kts of deep layer shear is barely enough to get thunderstorms going, let alone sustain updrafts. We`ll see how the shear pans out, but I would remain weather aware tomorrow, especially if you have outdoor plans. Like I said, it shouldn`t be anything widespread, but I would not be surprised for the need for a couple severe warnings for wind tomorrow afternoon. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 It`s pretty cool out there this morning with temps in the low to mid 60s. Current radar imagery shows some very light and scattered precip across the area. I would be surprised if any of it was making it to the ground, though, as this morning`s balloon launch shows a large dry layer above us. As the upper-level low continues to scoot in, moisture will fill in and rain will likely start making it to the ground this afternoon. The scattered activity will continue through the afternoon. Instability should stay on the low side, but can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder today. For tonight, the latest CAMs are showing a line of thunderstorms developing across west Tennessee overnight tonight around 3 to 4 am and pushing east through the area during the morning hours Tuesday. While there won`t be much instability around during that time, there could still be some thunder. Models show a second line developing between 12pm-2pm Tuesday afternoon that could bring a marginal severe threat, particularly to areas south of I-40. Right now, the main threats with that line appear to be small hail and damaging winds. I know with the recent bout of severe weather, that`s not what people want to hear. On the plus side, Tuesday looks like the only day (for now at least) of any consequence...And the threat is marginal. 0-6km shear values will be pretty low, lapse rates aren`t great (around 6 C/Km), and mean instability is around 1400 J/KG. Something else worth noting is that there could be a few heavy downpours with PWAT values near 1.40" tomorrow. While flooding isn`t a great concern, it will be something to monitor since the ground is still so saturated and a few waterways are still very full. That previous sentence goes for the whole forecast package, both now and through the long term. Rainfall amounts Monday- Wednesday will be anywhere from 0.5" to 1". && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1122 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Scattered activity will continue through Tuesday night and will be slow to exit off the Plateau on Wednesday. We`ll have some more scattered activity around as the surface low spins NE out of the area. Looking aloft, ridging will start building in late Wednesday night. This will provide temporary relief from the rain for at least Thursday. This upper-air pattern is a progressive one, though, and another upper-level low developing over the SW will start pushing this way through the rest of the forecast period. This translates to an active and unsettled weather pattern for the weekend. Forecast rainfall amounts for Friday-Sunday range anywhere from 0.5" to near 2". Temperatures in the extended period will generally be in the low 80s for highs and overnight temps in the 60s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024 Showers have been very light out there this evening, limited to some sprinkles. The remainder of tonight will be on the drier side before a line of showers and thunderstorms move through Tuesday morning. By the afternoon, convection looks to increase bringing more showers and thunderstorm through Tuesday evening. CIGs are lowering down to MVFR this evening with some periods of IFR expected tonight. These conditions remain through Tuesday with some reduced VIS with any heavier showers. Winds are coming in a little weaker than expected between 10 to 12 kts and will weaken through the night. Tuesday`s winds remain out the S around 10 kts but could become gusty with any stronger thunderstorms that develop. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 64 78 62 78 / 80 70 80 60 Clarksville 62 77 61 75 / 80 70 70 40 Crossville 57 71 58 70 / 40 70 90 80 Columbia 63 77 61 78 / 80 70 70 50 Cookeville 60 74 60 72 / 50 80 90 80 Jamestown 57 73 58 70 / 30 60 90 80 Lawrenceburg 63 77 61 77 / 80 70 70 50 Murfreesboro 62 77 61 77 / 80 70 80 60 Waverly 62 76 61 76 / 80 70 70 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Unger SHORT TERM...Baggett LONG TERM....Baggett AVIATION.....Cravens