Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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675 FXUS64 KOUN 041738 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A cold front has moved into far NW parts of the fa and will continue to move across parts of the area today. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move across the area through the morning hours with the highest chances near/behind the front. Gusty winds and maybe some small hail will be possible with the stronger storms. Locally heavy rain will also be possible. Additional showers/storms could develop in the area later this afternoon near any lingering boundaries. Meanwhile, showers/storms are also expected to develop SW of the fa this afternoon then spread NE into the area this evening. Storm development will continue overnight into Sunday as a shortwave moves across the southern Plains. Some severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and continue through the overnight hours with large hail and damaging winds possible but the biggest concern tonight will likely shift to flooding. Heavy rain is expected this evening into Sunday, especially across the southern half or so of the fa. Will continue with the current Flood Watch but flooding will be of particular concern in those areas that have already received heavy rainfall over the last week. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Showers/storms are expected to continue into Sunday as the shortwave continues to move across the southern Plains with heavy rain/flooding the primary concern although some of the storms could also produce some strong winds and hail. Rain chances will gradually decrease from west to east Sunday. Monday: It still looks like there could be a significant severe weather event in the area on Monday. Models show a negatively tilted trough approaching the region Monday. At the sfc, a dryline is expected to move into western parts of the fa by late afternoon. Ahead of the dryline, a moist, unstable airmass is expected to be in place. Storms are expected to develop near the dryline late Monday afternoon/evening. The highest chance for storm development will be in northern parts of the fa closer to the upper support with storm coverage expected to decrease the farther south you go. Severe storms are expected with large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all possible. Tuesday and Wednesday: Moisture will linger in SE parts of the fa. Heating and any disturbances in the flow could lead to storm development late afternoon/evening on both days in southeast parts of the fa but chances are currently low. A frontal boundary is expected to move across the area middle/late next week which will shunt the better moisture south of the fa that could lead to at least a brief break in the active weather pattern before more widespread rain chances potentially return next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Widespread MVFR ceilings are expected through Sunday morning. A slowly-moving cold front will become diffuse in the Red River region later today. Showers and thunderstorms will be common over the southern half of Oklahoma and areas south, especially overnight. Some of these TAF sites will have IFR conditions at times particularly with thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 58 72 62 80 / 80 80 20 40 Hobart OK 57 74 61 84 / 90 60 20 40 Wichita Falls TX 62 76 64 84 / 90 60 10 30 Gage OK 50 74 57 87 / 50 40 20 30 Ponca City OK 54 69 59 80 / 70 70 20 60 Durant OK 65 76 64 81 / 80 90 20 30 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OKZ006>008-011>013- 018>020-023>048-050>052. TX...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for TXZ083>090. && $$ SHORT TERM...25 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...09