000
FXUS64 KOUN 250007
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
707 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A surface warm front will slowly move towards the north this
evening. Isentropic ascent along and ahead of this boundary will
support periods of showers and thunderstorms, especially across
the northern half of the area. Elevated instability overnight into
the morning will support hail with the most intense cores.

The main upper level support will move through the southern
Plains Thursday afternoon, providing sufficient large scale ascent
over our area. A dryline is forecast to move into the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Thursday afternoon. All ingredients
align for any initial cells that develop along the dryline to
produce severe weather, potentially significant severe with all
hazards possible.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Thursday Night into Friday: As the synoptic scale lift shifts
towards the northeast overnight Thursday, the dryline/Pacific
front will push eastward. Additional thunderstorms will form along
the boundary overnight across far western north Texas. This
development is expected to grow upscale into a line overnight from
southwestern to central Oklahoma, and shift eastward through the
morning. With sufficient shear, instability and a strengthening
low-level jet, severe weather remains possible with all hazards in
play. The dryline/Pacific front will stall somewhere near the
I-35 corridor Friday afternoon, and may be the focal point for
additional redevelopment. The main limiting factor is that the
main forcing will be off to the east. The thermodynamic
environment will be uncapped and with sufficient deep-layer shear,
any storm that can form, has the potential to be severe.

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across western
Oklahoma as sustained winds of 20-25 mph and RHs in the teens will
be likely behind the dryline.

Saturday: Saturday still has the potential for significant severe
weather across the entire area. Moisture return ahead of another
advancing negatively-tilted mid-level wave will move in quickly. A
dryline will once again sharpen across the Oklahoma/Texas
panhandles/state line as a surface low deepens in southwest
Kansas. There are still model uncertainties with this system,
however. Timing of the mid-level trough will greatly impact when
the large scale ascent overspreads our area, and if convection can
stick around Saturday morning, that will likely hamper convection
later in the afternoon. A slower trough ejection and morning
convection will limit severe potential, but if there is no morning
convection and the timing of the wave coincides with peak
heating, significant severe weather will be expected will all
hazards possible. Lastly, depending on how many rounds of rainfall
we get through the remainder of the week, will dictate the
flooding potential by Saturday.

By Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will continue to move out of
the area with weaker flow aloft. Higher heights will move in by
early next week, with a warm up into the 80s by Tuesday and low
chances for thunderstorms.

Bunker

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

MVFR ceilings are expected to form overnight with showers and
thunderstorms in northern Oklahoma before sunrise. IFR ceilings
are expected at most TAF sites by sunrise and lasting into the
daytime Thursday. Southeast wind will turn south and become
moderately gusty Thursday. Severe thunderstorms are possible in
western Oklahoma in the late afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  64  77  64  83 /  70  50  90  30
Hobart OK         65  78  59  85 /  50  30  80   0
Wichita Falls TX  67  80  64  85 /  40  10  90  20
Gage OK           57  81  54  86 /  50  40  40   0
Ponca City OK     58  73  62  83 /  80 100  90  40
Durant OK         66  79  67  80 /  30  20  60  80

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...09