057
FXUS65 KRIW 271929
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
129 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers continue across the state this
  afternoon/evening with winds becoming breezy as well.

- Showers continue across western WY Sunday with scattered
  showers and thunderstorms spreading east during the
  afternoon.

- Early indications of unsettled weather continuing throughout
  the upcoming week with multiple quick moving systems.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A soggy start to the weekend for most of the Cowboy State as rounds
of precipitation moved through overnight and early this morning.
Eastern slopes of the Wind River Range look to have been the
bullseye. This morning`s COCORAHS reports show over 1 inch of rain
in Fort Washakie and over 0.75 inches in Lander for the past 24
hours. Showers will continue across the state today with parts of
the Bighorn Basin, Natrona and Johnson Counties having less of a
chance (10-30%) for seeing precipitation. Elsewhere showers look
likely, with most seeing a 50-80% chance of precipitation during
afternoon today. Temperatures are on the cooler side today, with
highs around 50, the warmest temperatures will be in the Bighorn
Basin where the sun may break through the clouds. Winds increase by
the early afternoon with breezy conditions developing across parts
of Sublette, Sweetwater, Fremont, Natrona, and Johnson Counties.
Gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be possible at times today. Wind weaken
by the evening becoming light and variable overnight. Showers will
begin to dissipate by the evening, with scattered showers possible
over parts of western WY through the overnight.

The upper-level low that brought precipitation to the state over the
past few days will slowly move northeast towards the Northern
Plains. A weak shortwave will trail behind this low moving into NW
WY this evening bringing rain and high elevation snow showers. This
weak shortwave moves through the state on Sunday bringing the chance
(30-60%) for scattered showers and (5-15%) isolated thunderstorms.
Precipitation comes to an end across much of the state by Sunday
evening with a brief lull in activity before another system moves in
on Monday. Another weak shortwaves sweeps across the PACNW and moves
into the Northern Rockies by Monday afternoon. Showers look to
develop by the late morning across western WY before gradually
spreading east through the day. A few isolated thunderstorms will be
possible across the state during the afternoon, with having a (10-
20%) chance for a thunderstorm. Winds look to increase Monday as the
pressure gradient tightens due to the approaching shortwave.
Currently models are showing a (40-70%) chance for most of the state
to see gusts of 35+ mph during the day Monday. Winds look to remain
breezy after Monday, as the pressure gradient remains tight due to
another system nearing for the second half of the week. Temperatures
will briefly rebound for Monday, with near normal values for areas
east of the Divide. Cooler temperatures are forecast to return for
Tuesday as a cold front sweeps across the region during the early
morning hours.

The remainder of the week is looking active with multiple quick
hitting systems moving through the region. Impacts are still too
uncertain at this time to go in detail about as we are still
multiple days out. Overall, it looks like we have a 1 in 2 chance of
having more unsettled weather through the upcoming week. The Cowboy
State could possibly see a wide variety of weather ranging from
thunderstorms to strong winds and even snow over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1047 AM MDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Mainly VFR conditions for the entirety of the period with LND
lifting right above to start the period. JAC is likely to see
MVFR ceilings and visibility with light rain on station between
01-05Z. Otherwise, lifting to VFR after and to the end of the
period. Elevated winds at BPI, PNA, RKS, and CPR gusting up to
18-25kts through about 00-01Z before diminishing due to
radiational cooling and improving skies. Mid level ceilings
remain overnight scattering out by the end of the period around
16-17Z and winds less than 10-12kts. Winds will increase at BPI,
COD, PNA, and RKS with daytime heating and mixing to the
surface after 16-17Z lasting into the next period. No other
weather elements are expected with aviation weather much
improved from the past day or two.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for
WYZ002.

Winter Storm Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ015.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hattings
AVIATION...Lowe