805
FXUS61 KRLX 091035
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
635 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Additional showers and storms today, some becoming strong to
severe. A cold front will promote cooler conditions Friday
and the weekend. Warmer with diurnal storms expected next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 635 AM Thursday...

Opted to drop the Flood Watch this morning for the southern
coalfields as rainfall rates within encroaching stratiform pose
no concern to flash flooding. Also tweaked POPs to reflect radar
trends, with the aforementioned light rain stretching into our
southern zones, and last night`s moisture-laden boundary now
lifting northward. Rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 235 AM Thursday...

A stationary boundary draped through parts of southeast Ohio
into north-central West Virginia yields the only sign of
lightning in our forecast area at the time of writing. This
low-topped convection poses a bit of a hydro concern early this
morning as it festers within light flow between 5,000-15,000ft
AGL, resulting in relatively slow storm motion to the north.
Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr within this band amidst tarnished
flash flood guidance due to previous activity may cause
localized flooding concerns during the predawn hours.

Otherwise, the bulk of stronger convection resides well south of
the forecast area early this morning, with even stratiform rain
now sailing away from our extreme southern zones. Flood Watch
for southwest Virginia and McDowell County in West Virginia
currently runs until later this morning, but if radar trends
hold, very little additional rainfall will sweep through and may
pose an election to end the Watch early.

Surface low pressure approaching from the west today will
promote another dose of showers and storms as it tracks along
the stationary boundary. A cold front will gradually clear out
the area late tonight, but until then hi-res guidance suggests
isolated activity sprouting during the late afternoon/early
evening followed by a segmented line of convection drifting
southward for the first part of the overnight hours. A few
storms could reach strong to severe thresholds, imposing the
threat for damaging wind gusts, hail, and a tornado or two.
Forecast rainfall amounts are anticipated to be less impactful
compared to previous days, but a few isolated spots for flooding
concerns could sprout throughout the period given how saturated
the ground remains in response to unsettled weather this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

Most of Friday should be unsettled with very little chances of
diurnal thunderstorm potential although we cannot rule them out.
An upper level trough will be the culprit for Friday. Going
into Saturday there will be a break during the morning as
a surface ridge builds in after the aforementioned trough moves
east. But by the afternoon, chances of shower and storm
potential will rise across the entire area as a surface low with
upper level support moves into the region. This feature will be
forecast to graze the northern periphery of our CWA.

Relatively quiet weather anticipated for Sunday as surface high
pressure and upper level ridging builds in and will only allow
for the northeast mountains to endure chances for shower and
storm activity mainly for the afternoon and evening. The rest of
Sunday will be dry area-wide and going into the next period.
Temperatures will remain cooler than normal through Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Thursday...

For Monday, expect dry conditions into the afternoon although
the rest of the day will have shower chances with little in the
way of any probability for thunderstorms. Another surface low
with upper level support is forecast to approach the area late
Monday keeping chances for shower activity through the rest of
this period along with daily diurnal chances for thunderstorm
activity. This period will also have a warming trend to get the
area back up to around seasonable temperatures, maybe even
slightly above, starting Monday and continuing through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 635 AM Thursday...

Some MVFR ceilings have sprouted across the area this morning
and is progged to encompass more of the forecast area in the
next several hours. Clouds attempt to lift back into VFR
thresholds this afternoon across the south, but will quickly
fill back in overnight. This will be in response to a cold front
making eastward progress through the area, slated to complete
its passage on Friday. Pockets of IFR may transpire across our
northern terminals initially tonight, then becoming more
widespread by the conclusion of the valid TAF period.

Another round of showers and afternoon thunderstorms will be
possible today ahead of FROPA. Some storms may be capable of
producing strong wind gusts, hail, heavy downpours, and brief
vsby/cig restrictions.

Winds will begin out of the southwest today, then gradually
veering out of the northwest late tonight into Friday in
response to the cold frontal passage. Breezier wind gusts may be
observed along the higher terrain, and possibly BKW & EKN,
overnight into Friday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceiling restrictions may vary
from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 05/09/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
Lingering IFR conditions behind the cold front remain possible
along the mountains on Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MEK