645
FXUS61 KRNK 081430
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1030 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday
when a cold front crosses the Mid Atlantic. Cooler conditions
will arrive for the weekend with the potential for mountain
showers. Warmer air should return during next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1030 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) The severe threat is decreasing overall. Showers and
thunderstorms are possible later this evening into tonight.

2) A cold front will cross the Mid Atlantic on Thursday.

Cloud debris from earlier showers and thunderstorms is crossing
over the Appalachian Mountains in association with an outflow
boundary. The latest 12Z RNK sounding reveals a notable amount
of westerly flow and drier air just above the surface. Based on
the latest high-resolution models, the severe threat appears to
be shifting south towards North Carolina and Tennessee. As a
result, the threat in Virginia and West Virginia is decreasing.
Temperatures were tweaked slightly lower to account for the
cloud cover.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms may occur in northwest
North Carolina during the next several hours, but the best
chances may not take place until late this evening into tonight
as the outflow boundary is buckled back northward as a warm
front due to an approaching low pressure system in the Plains.
Showers and thunderstorms could reach the mountains but fade
before completely crossing the Blue Ridge overnight. The
antecedent conditions still remain rather dry, so any flooding
threat seems minimal.

The cold front from the aforementioned low pressure system will
cross the Mid Atlantic on Thursday. However, the central area of
low pressure should pass to the north over Pennsylvania. Some of
the models indicate the showers and thunderstorms possibly
splitting Virginia and West Virginia during Thursday afternoon,
but the chances will remain in the forecast due to the dynamical
and orographical lift possible along with the warm and humid
air. The wind could also turn breezy from the west during
Thursday as the cold front passes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 500 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1. Chance of storms decreasing on Friday.

2. Temperatures will turn cooler by Friday.

An upper level shortwave on Friday will have its potential
limited by reduced moisture availability in the wake of
Thursday`s frontal passage. There will still be scattered
showers and storms, though the severe risk is much lower.

Temperatures will cool to the 60s and low 70s Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 500 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

  - Daily chances for showers
  - Cooler at the end of the week

At upper levels flow becomes more west to northwest as a long
wave through develops over the northeast United States on
Saturday. A short wave coming through the northwest flow will
bring a cold front through the region Saturday night and Sunday.
This will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms
mainly in the mountains.

Maximum temperatures through Sunday will be 5 to 10 degrees
below normal, with a gradual warming trend next week. The
coldest overnight lows will be Friday night. A few of the
typically favored locations may cool into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 625 AM EDT Wednesday...

A line of storms over West Virginia this morning will continue
to progress south. Will see some increased cloud cover from
these, along with the potential for an isolated thunderstorm and
some gusty winds from through perhaps 13z for LWB/BLF.

Gradually clearing through the day and thunderstorms may
redevelop again late this evening and overnight. Periods of
IFR/LIFR. Winds generally SSW today.

Some fog development is possible again across the region tonight.

Forecast confidence is average.

Extended Aviation Outlook...

Unsettled weather is expected through Saturday. Daily threat of
SHRA/TSRA through at least Friday. This will bring periods of
MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities at times. Winds through
Wednesday will favor a SW direction and may be gusty at times.
Some improvement over the weekend especially Sunday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...BMG