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000
FNUS71 KRNK 230718
FWSRNK

Spot Forecast for Sinking Creek Unit 2...USFS
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
318 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0500 EDT on April 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure remains over the area today bringing with dry and
warm weather. Minimum RH values today will range from 20 to 30
percent, with slightly higher values near the ridges of the
southern Blue Ridge. RH values begin to improve late afternoon
into tonight as SW winds bring in some moisture. SW winds between
5 and 15 mph are expected this afternoon into tonight.

A cold front crosses our region on Wednesday with scattered
showers mainly across the western mountains. Temperatures remain a
few degrees either side of normal through the week with high
pressure returning behind the front.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 40.
Max humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West around 3 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1200 knot-ft).
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................2.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      5AM
Sky (%).........48
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0
Temp............40
RH..............49
20 FT wind dir..W
20 FT wind spd..4
20 FT wind gust.6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4
Mixng wind dir..W
Mixng wind spd..3
LVORI...........2
ADI.............2
Haines index....5
VRate mph-ft/1K.1

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR (0.01 in).......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........West 2 to 8 mph shifting to the southwest 12 to
                    16 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (96100 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................2 early in the morning increasing to 80 in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........63     65     16     3      4      13
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............39     44     53     60     66     69
RH..............54     49     41     32     25     22
20 ft wind......W 4    W 4    SW 5   SW 6   SW 7   SW 9
20 ft wind gust.6      6      6      8      10     13
Mix hgt (ft)....400    400    2800   4300   5600   6500
Mixing wind......W 2    W 2    W 8    W 13   SW 13  SW 16
LVORI...........2      2      1      1      1      1
ADI.............2      2      30     63     80     75
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
VRate mph-ft/1K.1      1      23     53     71     105

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
CWR (0.01 in).......10 percent early in the morning.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 9 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (84600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (5400 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................74 early in the evening decreasing to 7 late in
                    the night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........20     36     36     30     47     70
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      10
Temp............66     62     58     55     53     52
RH..............26     37     44     51     55     62
20 ft wind......SW 10  SW 6   SW 7   SW 7   W 9    W 9
20 ft wind gust.14     10     10     10     12     13
Mix hgt (ft)....5800   700    600    600    800    1100
Mixing wind......SW 16  SW 14  SW 13  SW 10  SW 9   W 13
LVORI...........1      2      2      2      2      2
ADI.............74     9      8      7      8      11
Haines index....5      5      4      4      4      4
VRate mph-ft/1K.97     10     7      6      7      14

$$

Forecaster...Hanes
Requested by...Robbie Claytor
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411686.2/RNK
.DELDT 04/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL robert.claytor@usda.gov