778
FXUS64 KSHV 291800
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
100 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1046 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Weak upper-level ridging to continue to force any lingering
convection east of the region through the afternoon. However,
with the onset of daytime heating, could see a few stray showers
and thunderstorms developing across portions of northeast
Louisiana and south Arkansas this afternoon. High clouds continue
to march east, mainly prevailing across Arkansas and Louisiana.
However, shallow stratus deck will linger across the entire area
through late morning with the expectation that diurnal mixing will
help to erode the low cloud deck and allow some sunshine to break
through. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the upper 70s to
lower 80s across most areas this afternoon. Current forecast is
on track, no update needed at this time. /05/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Tornado Watch #160 is valid through 3am for Grant, Winn, LaSalle
and Caldwell Parishes in Northeast/North Central Louisiana. Flood
Watch is still in effect now until Noon for the southeast half of
the Four State Region. Cancelled the northwest half of the Flood
Watch with this morning forecast package and it`s possible that
the remaining Flood Watch can be cancelled earlier than Noon today
across our southeast half.

Leading edge of a LEWP was beginning to accelerate south and east
through our eastern most zones early this morning and this is
where there will continue to be a wind/isolated tornado threat for
at least one more hour before these threats shift south and east
of our region. Likewise, this will be a continued flood threat
through at least the mid morning hours with another inch or two of
precipitation possible with lighter amounts further north and
west.

Will need to watch for some patchy dense fog early this morning
across our western half as the clearing line has made it into NC
Texas a little faster than progs would indicate, otherwise, look
for a short drying trend to commence later today, through tonight
and through all but our far southern zones on Tuesday. Introduced
small chance pops mainly south of the I-20 Corridor for Tue as
there is some indication that a remnant boundary or front will
begin returning back northward during the day that could act as a
forcing mechanism with daytime heating for at least isolated
convection south of the I-20 Corridor. Otherwise, did not stray
too far from NBM temps through the short term portion of the
forecast.

13

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

The drying trend is short lived unfortunately as more significant
rainfall is back in the forecast for later this week.

The Southern Plains returns to southwest flow aloft with a
developing longwave trough carving its way into the Intermountain
West. This flow will only amplify as strong upper ridging remains
anchored across the Southeast U.S. and into the Appalachians.
Upstream disturbances in this southwest flow aloft will likely
provide the upper forcing necessary, combined with plentiful Gulf
of Mexico moisture and you have the ingredients for locally heavy
rainfall once again. Convection should be isolated to scattered
in coverage Wed thru Wed Night with the first impulse likely
impacting our region Thu into Thu Night with another close on its
heels during the day Friday. NBM is a little drier than one would
think with another stronger disturbance moving our way Sat into
Sat Night per the GFS but have followed it`s lead for now.
Needless to say this late week system has the potential to become
another flood maker with severe weather probabilities a little
less certain.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

For the ArkLaTex terminals, mid&upper level decks have cleared
all but KMLU. The low decks are lifting/scattering for all our TX
sites, and likewise into AR/LA this aftn with better warming.
Weak surface high in the wake of nocturnal convection is
basically from the rain cooled air. No wind flow around an air
mass this go around. SFC wind will remain light & var for us with
SW flow aloft off the deck and generally W/SW for climb out and
FLs. Overnight, wet ground and near calm wind will bring LIFR/IFR
mostly for FG/BR, which will improve quicker tmrw w/ better sun.
/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  65  87  68 /  10   0  10  10
MLU  78  64  84  64 /  90  10  10  10
DEQ  82  58  84  61 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  82  61  86  65 /  10   0   0  10
ELD  78  60  85  61 /  50  10   0  10
TYR  83  64  86  69 /   0   0  10  10
GGG  83  63  86  67 /  10   0  10  10
LFK  85  65  86  68 /  10   0  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...24