Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

000
FXUS01 KWBC 250717
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Valid 12Z Thu Apr 25 2024 - 12Z Sat Apr 27 2024

...Unsettled weather and severe thunderstorm chances will continue
to expand across much of the central United States over the next
several days...

...Increasing risk of flash flooding across parts of central and
eastern Oklahoma Saturday night...

...Active fire weather pattern to emerge over the southern High
Plains today...


An increasingly active weather pattern is beginning to unfold
across the mid-section of the Nation as an upper-level trough from
the subtropical eastern Pacific nears Baja California and the
Southwest. This trough is expected to interact with warm and moist
air returning from the Gulf of Mexico and produce an expanding
area of showers and thunderstorms gradually lifting north of a
warm front. The initial stages of rain/thunderstorm formation are
setting up across the central Plains early this morning. A greater
severe weather threat is expected to expand across the central
Plains this afternoon as a surface cyclone rapidly deepens in
eastern Colorado in response to the approaching upper level
trough. The aforementioned warm front is expected to continue
lifting northward while a High Plains dryline pushes east. This
environment is anticipated to produce numerous thunderstorms
across the central and southern Plains, with scattered storms
turning severe. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced
Risk (level 3/5) for severe weather across parts of western Kansas
and Oklahoma into the eastern Texas Panhandle and northwest Texas.
Very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple strong tornadoes
will all be possible. Multiple rounds of heavy rain could also
lead to scattered flash flooding, which has prompted a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall across parts of northeast
Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northwest
Arkansas. By Friday, the low pressure system is forecast to deepen
and slide northeast across the central Plains before eventually
reaching the upper Midwest on Saturday morning. This will spread
shower and thunderstorm chances eastward into the upper Midwest,
mid- and lower Mississippi Valley, as well as the southern Plains.
The greatest severe weather threat to end the week is forecast
across parts of the central Plains and mid-Mississippi Valley,
where an Enhanced Risk of severe weather includes parts of
southwest Iowa, southeast Nebraska, northeast Kansas, and
northwest Missouri. This severe weather threat includes the
possibility of a few tornadoes, large to very large hail, and
damaging winds. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding
are also possible across much of the Mississippi Valley into the
southern Plains on Friday.

No breaks from Mother Nature to start the weekend as another round
of severe weather and possibly a dangerous flash flood threat
impacts parts of the central/southern Plains. After the initial
system progresses into the Upper Great Lakes, a lingering frontal
boundary is expected to stretch into the central Plains on
Saturday, along with a southern High Plains dryline. Meanwhile,
the western U.S. trough is anticipated to reload due to an
approaching shortwave from the northeast Pacific. This setup is
forecast to produce another round of strong to severe storms
Saturday evening, with several thunderstorms expected to move
slowly over parts of central and eastern Oklahoma. This creates a
situation likely to lead to numerous instances of flash flooding
and is highlighted by a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) for Excessive
Rainfall, with a Slight Risk spanning from north-central Texas to
southern Iowa. Residents and visitors across the central U.S. over
the next several days are urged to remain weather aware, have
multiple ways to receive warnings, and never drive across flooded
roads.

Behind the dryline across the southern High Plains, the
combination of very low relative humidity and gusty winds are
expected to raise fire danger to critical level through this
weekend. Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly.
Outdoor burning is not recommended. Additionally, gusty winds up
to 60 mph could lead to areas of blowing dust.

Elsewhere, unsettled weather is expected to persist over the West,
Great Basin, and Rockies over the next few days with the passage
of the upper trough. Precipiation is expected to remain mostly
light, with embedded downpours and high-elevation heavy snow by
Friday across the Rockies. The Northwest should be the wettest
region across the West as a Pacific low pressure system moves
onshore. The Coastal Ranges as well as the Cascades could receive
a couple of inches of rainfall with heavy wet snow possible across
the higher elevations. This active weather will also accompany a
cooling trend throughout the West in contrast to the recent spring
warmth across the region. Chilly weather is also forecast across
the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through the end of the week as high
pressure builds southward from Canada. Low temperatures could dip
below freezing on this morning and have prompted Freeze Warnings
and Frost Advisories to be issued from the Midwest to southern New
England. Most of the above average warmth will be found throughout
the Plains outside of areas experiencing prolonged periods of
rainfall, with highs into the 80s remaining across the Southern
Tier States into Friday. Above average warmth will also begin to
spread eastward into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley by
Saturday with highs into the upper 70s and low 80s.


Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$