Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS62 KTAE 170132
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
932 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
No major changes were made to the forecast this evening. Some fog
remains possible tonight with most guidance suggests the best
opportunity for fog along the southeastern Big Bend. However,
confidence was not high enough to issue a Dense Fog Advisory at
this time, but one may be needed depending on how things trend
overnight.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
The main concern overnight is the chance for fog across the area. An
area of sea fog developed across Apalachee Bay last night and
persists this afternoon, and similar conditions are expected
tonight. Some of this dense fog could impinge on the coast from
Franklin county eastward to Dixie county, and we`ll keep an eye on
these trends this evening into the overnight in case a dense fog
advisory is needed on the coast. Elsewhere, patchy fog could develop
with a moist airmass and light winds in place. Overnight lows will
generally range from the mid 50s across the northern counties to the
mid 60s across the southeast big bend.
On Sunday, a nearly stationary frontal boundary will lift slowly
northward into southern Alabama and southern Georgia. Meanwhile, a
mid-level shortwave will ride along the Gulf Coast overtop the
surface front and bring a round of showers and thunderstorms to the
forecast area, starting during the mid-afternoon hours across
southeast Alabama and the Florida panhandle, then spreading eastward
across the remainder of the area during the evening as a MCS moves
through. The severe weather looks marginal. Ample deep layer shear
will be in place, but instability is on the marginal side. The main
threat is for isolated damaging wind gusts, although a brief tornado
cannot be ruled out if the low level jet intensifies in association
with the MCS. The Storm Prediction Center continues to outline the
southern half of the area in a Marginal Risk of severe weather
(level 1 of 5) where the greatest instability will overlap with the
shear.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
A stationary front will gradually lift north with an
east-west orientation over far southern AL and GA. In the upper to
mid levels, various shortwave perturbations will ride the
predominately westerly flow regime serving as a source of lift
across the area sparking showers and thunderstorms areawide. A messy
storm mode / MCS is expected to occur across the area with the SPC
outlining our FL counties and southernmost tier of GA counties in a
marginal risk (1/5) for severe weather. A few damaging wind gusts
appear possible given the stronger mid-level flow, and perhaps a
brief tornado or two along the frontal zone where low-level SRH will
be locally enhanced. The main question with this setup will be
buoyancy as persistent cloud cover will inhibit destabilization.
The threat will continue through the evening on Sunday, gradually
shifting off the coast of FL and perhaps persisting slightly longer
across our easternmost FL Big Bend and coastal FL Forgotten Coast
counties as a cold front pushes into the area. The SPC D3 also has
our easternmost FL Big Bend counties outlined in a marginal risk
(1/5) for severe weather at this time as the threat may linger
across the aforementioned area through the morning hours.
High temperatures Sunday will reach the low 80s in the FL Big Bend
with mid-upper 70s expected in the FL Panhandle, SE AL, and SW GA.
Overnight lows will generally remain in the mid to upper 50s with
low 70s in the easternmost FL Big Bend. Highs on Monday following
the cold front will range from the mid to upper 60s in SE AL, SW
GA, and the FL Panhandle with the FL Big Bend seeing highs in the
low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Large scale upper troughing will exit the region
through the long term resulting in a benign pattern through late
Thursday. Upper ridging will build in keeping high temperatures
through Thursday in the mid to upper 60s with lows in the upper 30s
to low 40s. Come Thursday, a shortwave trough will traverse the Gulf
Coast before entering our region. Additionally, a surface low will
trek toward the area bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast area. The severe threat appears
questionable at this time given uncertainty regarding if the warm
front will push onshore or not. Regardless, thunderstorms and heavy
rain appear possible with the system on Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail this evening with
a touch of fog being possible around the area. However, confidence
was not quite high enough to include in this package, but the
rough timing for it would be between 10Z to 13Z if it were to
occur.
VFR conditions continue into Sunday morning as clouds increase
from the west in advance of another batch of showers and
thunderstorms that will bring lower ceilings and lower
visibilities. Confidence is a bit higher that these showers and
storms will impact KDHN and KECP before 00Z Monday, so included
some VCTS in the TAFs to account for that. Elsewhere, included
VCSH in the TAFs in case the showers and thunderstorms arrive
earlier than currently expected.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Calm to light winds are expected over our waters this
evening through tomorrow morning before gentle to occasionally
moderate breezes out of the south occur as a stationary front lifts
north. Additionally, rain chances will increase over the area
beginning tomorrow evening through Monday afternoon. Some stronger
storms with cannot be ruled out with this system with gusty and
erratic winds near and within these storms as well as waterspouts.
Winds will become northerly again on Monday as a cold front pushes
south with advisory conditions possible as winds increase with the
tightening of the pressure gradient. Wave heights will also see an
increase to around 6 to 7 feet. Following this, seas will calm down
once again on Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
There are no significant fire weather concerns with widespread
wetting rain expected on Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Behind
this system, a dry airmass with low relative humidity will move in
for Monday and Tuesday. However, wet fuels will preclude critical
fire weather conditions.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024
Most areas saw about 0.5 to 1 inch of rain across southeast
Alabama and southwest Georgia yesterday with lower amounts (to
none) across Florida. The highest totals were around Colquitt up
to Fitzgerald where up to 2 inches fell. This rain didn`t result
in flash flooding or much aggravation on the rivers. Looking
forward to Sunday and Monday`s system, rainfall totals have crept
up a bit. We`re now expecting about 1 to 2 inches of rain across
the Florida counties and up to an inch elsewhere. Depending on how
the storms orient themselves as they move through the area, there
could be some brief bouts of training convection, which may lead
to locally higher amounts. Reasonable worst case scenario rainfall
totals are around 2 to 4 inches. This could result in some
localized flooding, and the Weather Prediction Center has outlined
our Florida counties in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall
(level 1 of 4) for Sunday. The next system arrives Thursday and
Friday, but heavy rainfall and flooding concerns are uncertain
with this system.
Regarding the rivers, the Kinchafoonee is expected to rise back to
action stage given the rain upstream in central Georgia and over
the basin itself. Otherwise, no additional flooding is expected on
the rivers. The Apalachicola, Choctawhatchee, and Flint are all
falling (or beginning to fall). The exception is the lower
Apalachicola and lower Chipola where the flood wave is reaching
these points, and causing backwater flooding into the lower
Chipola. Given the forecast rainfall totals and the location of
the rainfall, no additional river flood concerns are currently
anticipated.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 62 82 58 69 / 0 70 90 10
Panama City 63 76 56 69 / 0 90 80 10
Dothan 58 76 52 63 / 0 90 70 0
Albany 58 76 52 64 / 0 90 80 10
Valdosta 62 82 58 68 / 0 60 90 20
Cross City 65 81 62 74 / 0 20 70 40
Apalachicola 63 73 60 68 / 0 70 80 20
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Sunday for
FLZ108-112-114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ730-765-775.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Reese
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Worster
LONG TERM....Worster
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Worster
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...Young