Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS62 KTAE 181934
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
334 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Northwest upper flow will prevail as an upper trough exits the
region. At the surface, north-northwest flow will prevail as a cold
front continues sweeping the region advecting colder and drier air
into the forecast area. Overhead, high pressure will build over the
region with large scale subsidence and drier air aloft keeping cloud
cover minimal in the overnight hours. A complex scenario is in play
tonight regarding minimum temperatures in portions of our SE AL and
SW GA counties where this would typically be a decent setup for
radiational cooling, perhaps resulting in temperatures 32 and below.
However, winds are expected to remain somewhat elevated this evening
which could keep temperatures slightly warmer than if the winds were
calm. Looking at probabilistic guidance, the NBM has around a 50%
chance of temperatures below freezing for the aforementioned areas.
Given the sensitive nature of how early the grow season has started
this year, opted to upgrade the previous freeze watch to a freeze
warning to err on the side of caution. Make sure to cover vulnerable
plants this evening and bring smaller potted plants inside.
Overnight lows are expected to be in the low to mid 30s across our
SE AL and SW GA counties with upper 30s to low 40s across our FL
counties.
Cool northerly flow will persist through tomorrow keeping max
temperatures slightly below average. High temperatures in our SE AL
and SW GA counties will mainly be confined to the low 60s with mid
to upper 60s across our FL counties.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Quiet conditions are anticipated through the middle of the week as
upper level troughing moves out and surface high pressure settles
into the region. One last chilly night is expected Tuesday night
due to light winds and clear skies aiding radiational cooling in
the remnant cool airmass in place from Monday`s cold front.
Dry conditions are expected as high temperatures warm into the low
to mid 70s on Wednesday afternoon, about 10 degrees warmer than
Tuesday high temps.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Broad westerly upper level flow, with some contributions from the
subtropical jet, will influence the pattern from Thursday into the
upcoming weekend. A few weak disturbances are expected to pass
through the flow Thursday night into Saturday bringing the
possibility of scattered showers and storms as these disturbances
interact with a weak stationary boundary across the eastern Gulf. The
greatest rain chances appear to be south and east of the area and
across the Florida peninsula, but with broad upper level support
in place and weak isentropic ascent possible with these features,
rain chances still remain high over the forecast area. Severe
weather prospects at this point remain uncertain, but with limited
instability, anything more than isolated strong/severe storms in
this pattern appears unlikely at this point across our area.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A cold front pushing through the area will continue to
erode lower clouds across all sites with KVLD likely holding onto
MVFR CIG`s for the next hour or so. Following this, winds will shift
to northerly at all sites with clear skies through the remainder of
the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Cold front continues to move south of the region and as another
wave moves through tonight, expect an increase in northerly winds
across the area which will bring solid advisory level conditions
with 20 to 30 knot winds into early Tuesday. A brief gust to low-
end gale force can`t be ruled out tonight. These winds will begin
to reduce during the afternoon on Tuesday and conditions will
drop to cautionary levels by the overnight hours. Light winds and
seas are expected Wednesday through Thursday with some increases
to cautionary levels possible on Friday/Saturday as the next
system bringing rain passes to our south. Easterly flow is likely
as this system moves through.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
A cold front will continue sweeping through the area today
resulting in northerly flow tomorrow. In addition, the airmass will
be quite dry dropping MinRH values into the low 20% range. Transport
winds will be around 10mph out of the north with mixing heights up
to 4200ft yielding fair dispersions tomorrow. With the recent
rainfall, fire concerns remain low at this time given higher fuel
moisture areawide. Wednesday will see transport winds out of the
west around 5-10mph with mixing heights around 4000-4300ft
yielding fair to good dispersions once again. MinRH values will
generally remain around 30% areawide, though our FL Big Bend
counties may see dispersions in the 20% range. Fire weather
concerns are also low for Wednesday given higher fuel moisture
from the recent rains.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 241 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The back end of the flood wave stemming from heavy rain on March 9
has almost finished its trek down the Flint River, with the Flint
River at Bainbridge dropping below flood stage earlier today.
High flows and minor flooding will continue along the Apalachicola
River throughout this work week.
Rainfall this past weekend was not enough to cause new flooding.
Upcoming dry weather from this afternoon through Thursday
morning will allow rivers to continue flushing water and generally
receding. The next round of rain will come on Thursday night and
Friday. The heavier rainfall amounts are forecast over our Florida
counties, with the most likely amounts currently around a non-
concerning one inch. However, there are some low-probability
outlier solutions that show around 3 to 4 inches of rain over the
Big Bend region, which would be more significant. However,
uncertainty in the pattern still remains fairly high.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 39 64 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
Panama City 40 62 45 68 / 0 0 0 0
Dothan 34 61 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
Albany 34 61 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 38 62 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
Cross City 40 64 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 42 60 47 66 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ112-114.
GA...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for GAZ120>124-142.
AL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ065>067.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday
for GMZ730-755-765-775.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ750-752-770-
772.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Worster
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Worster
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs