Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 160823
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
423 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Surface obs show that a shift to light northerly winds has made it
south to near I-10. The decayed remnants of the old MCS are now
moving from South Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle. In
fact, radar shows that weak showers have been blossoming over much
of the service area since 2 am. Potential for light showers will
continue for many places until a couple hours after sunrise.

This afternoon, there is potential for a few showers to pop up along
the seabreeze front, especially where the seabreeze and the larger-
scale washed out front can maximize lift. Given pockets of moderate
instability over our Florida counties, cannot rule out an isolated
thunderstorm. Overall, the trend in the forecast has been downward
with rain chances this Saturday afternoon, with the axis of deepest
moisture now expected to remain a little further south... just
offshore in the northeast Gulf over to the northern Nature Coast.

Inland locations south of the Florida state line will see
temperatures rise well into the 80s again today. Further north,
light northwest winds will contribute to highs just missing the 80-
degree mark.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

The stationary front will gradually lift northward into southern
Alabama and southern Georgia Sunday. Meanwhile, a mid-level
shortwave will ride along the Gulf Coast overtop the surface
front, bringing a round of showers and thunderstorms to the
forecast area. The shortwave becomes a bit more elongated as it
passes through the area Sunday evening into Sunday night. The cold
front finally will clear the area late Monday morning as the main
upper-level trough provides the final push to the front. Hi-res
guidance is indicating that there could be two waves of
convection. The first would be associated with the shortwave
Sunday afternoon and evening. The second would be overnight Sunday
into Monday associated with the larger scale trough and cold
front. There will be ample shear in place, but instability is the
question thanks to a bit of a mid-level cap. The low-level jet
will also intensify through the afternoon into the nighttime hours
to about 30-40 kt. Thus, isolated strong to severe storms will be
possible Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, mainly in our
Florida and southern Georgia counties south of the front. The
Storm Prediction Center has outlined these areas in a Marginal
Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) for the potential of
damaging wind gusts, some hail, and perhaps a tornado or two.

Temperatures will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s Sunday afternoon,
then temperatures begin to fall behind the front. Lows Sunday
night will be in the 50s, only reaching the 60s and lower 70s
Monday afternoon. Monday night will be a shock to the system with
lows in the 30s area wide. In fact, a few of our normally colder
spots in southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia could drop to the
freezing mark. Winds will also be elevated in the post-frontal
cold air advection environment, leading to wind chills in the
upper 20s to lower 30s area wide.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

High pressure dominates the first part of the long term as it
slides overhead Tuesday into Wednesday. This will keep skies clear
with highs in the lower to middle 60s Tuesday and lows in the
upper 30s to lower 40s Tuesday night. Upper-level ridging overhead
Wednesday will bring a quick warming trend with highs back in the
low to mid 70s. The next trough begins to take shape over the
southern Plains Wednesday with increasingly diffluent flow over
the Gulf of Mexico. An area of low pressure will develop over the
western Gulf Coast and northern Gulf, then move across the
southeast US Thursday into Friday. This will bring our next chance
of showers and a few storms. Severe weather and heavy rainfall
threats are questionable with this system as it`ll depend on the
placement of the low and the attendant fronts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A moist low-level air mass along with a washed out frontal boundary
across the region will lend itself to IFR ceilings until an hour or
two after sunrise. Radar indicates a blossoming of weak showers that
will continue through sunrise.

Starting a couple hours after sunrise, ceilings will quickly lift,
and clouds will scatter out into fair weather cumulus for the
afternoon. Cannot rule out a seabreeze shower in the afternoon at
TLH, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Dense sea fog will be possible across Apalachee Bay for much of
the day into tonight. Light west to northwest winds today will
become more southwesterly tonight as a stationary front lifts
northward. Rain chances increase again as the next system starts
kicking the cold front through the area. An isolated strong to
severe storm cannot be ruled out Sunday and Sunday night with
strong winds and waterspouts. Winds become northwest again Sunday
night as the front moves southward again, clearing the marine
area Monday. As high pressure builds over the western Gulf states,
the pressure gradient tightens, resulting in strong winds over
the waters. Advisory- level winds are likely Monday and Tuesday
with a stray gust to gale force not out of the question. Seas will
build in response to 4 to 6 feet. Winds and seas subside mid week
as high pressure slides overhead.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

The combination of a washed out cold front wavering over the region
today and the inland penetration of an afternoon seabreeze will
amount to variable wind directions today, though favoring some
component of a westerly direction. A stronger cold front will more
solidly push across the districts late Sunday night and Monday
morning, preceded on Sunday afternoon and evening by the next
widespread wetting rain. Otherwise, low daytime dispersion values
are forecast near the immediate coast today and again on Sunday due
to locally low mixing heights.

Areas of fog are possible this morning and again Sunday morning,
mainly near the coast and over Southeast Big Bend districts.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Most areas saw about 0.5 to 1 inch of rain across southeast
Alabama and southwest Georgia yesterday with lower amounts (to
none) across Florida. The highest totals were around Colquitt up
to Fitzgerald where up to 2 inches fell. This rain didn`t result
in flash flooding or much aggravation on the rivers. Looking
forward to Sunday and Monday`s system, rainfall totals have crept
up a bit. We`re now expecting about 1 to 2 inches of rain across
the Florida counties and up to an inch elsewhere. Depending on how
the storms orient themselves as they move through the area, there
could be some brief bouts of training convection, which may lead
to locally higher amounts. Reasonable worst case scenario rainfall
totals are around 2 to 4 inches. This could result in some
localized flooding, and the Weather Prediction Center has outlined
our Florida counties in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall
(level 1 of 4) for Sunday. The next system arrives Thursday and
Friday, but heavy rainfall and flooding concerns are uncertain
with this system.

Regarding the rivers, the Kinchafoonee is expected to rise back to
action stage given the rain upstream in central Georgia and over
the basin itself. Otherwise, no additional flooding is expected on
the rivers. The Apalachicola, Choctawhatchee, and Flint are all
falling (or beginning to fall). The exception is the lower
Apalachicola and lower Chipola where the flood wave is reaching
these points, and causing backwater flooding into the lower
Chipola. Given the forecast rainfall totals and the location of
the rainfall, no additional river flood concerns are currently
anticipated.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   84  64  80  57 /  30   0  80  80
Panama City   79  63  76  55 /  10  10  80  60
Dothan        78  61  75  51 /  10  10  90  50
Albany        79  59  75  51 /  10  10  90  70
Valdosta      83  64  82  57 /  20   0  80  80
Cross City    82  64  80  62 /  10  10  50  70
Apalachicola  75  64  73  58 /  20  10  70  70

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for GMZ730-755-
     765-775.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Young


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