819
FXUS62 KTAE 271904
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
304 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE
WEATHER,HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

A weak surface trough moving through northern Florida along I-10
this afternoon has produced a couple of sprinkles/light showers.
With just just enough low-level moisture in place, especially along
the developing sea breeze, decided to go ahead and add a 15 percent
chance for sprinkles/light showers along I-10 north into southern
Georgia and Alabama this afternoon. Any sprinkles/showers should
dissipate by this evening.

High pressure sliding down the eastern seaboard will maintain
southeasterly breezes and mild temperatures tonight into Sunday.
Slightly drier air arrives tomorrow and should preclude any showers
in the afternoon. Some residual moisture lingering in the mid and
upper levels will keep a few clouds streaming overhead through the
night and into Sunday. Temperatures tonight should drop into the
lower to middle 60s before warming into the lower to middle 80s
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Monday night)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Ridging will continue to prevail across the area on Monday ahead
of a shortwave vorticity maxima that is expected to enter the
region on Tuesday. Surface high pressure will continue to remain
entrenched off the east coast of Georgia and Florida Sunday night
through Monday night. This will continue to maintain easterly to
southeasterly surface winds across the area that may be gusty at
times during the afternoon hours. Overall, expect another dry day
with high temperatures climbing to above average values in the mid
to upper 80s, and lows starting in the low 60s Monday morning.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

The aforementioned shortwave vorticity maxima that is expected to
push into the region Monday night into Tuesday, with provide some
forcing for ascent across the region. The one caveat to this, is
that PWATs will generally remain around 1 inch or less across the
region. With the dry airmass entrenched over the region, the
coverage of rain showers will be extremely limited. At this time,
PoPs are around 15-20%, which is up from yesterday`s forecast.
This is likely due to the shortwave forecast to be slightly more
amplified than previous forecasts. Beyond this chance for isolated
showers, the remainder of the upcoming week looks to remain
fairly dry with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s, and lows in the
low to mid 60s.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Generally VFR conditions are expected through the period with a
light to moderate southeasterly wind. A cumulus field has
developed around the region late this morning and into the
afternoon, but ceilings are lifting. A similar setup is possible
mid to late Sunday morning that may bring brief MVFR ceilings near
the end of the TAF period. However, confidence wasn`t high enough
to include in the TAFs at this time.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Elevated southeast winds will continue this weekend with advisory
level conditions expected tonight across all marine zones;
however, they will initially start across Apalachee Bay before
surging west towards the Panhandle marine zones. The strongest
winds are likely to be via nocturnal easterly surges, and advisory
conditions are expected areawide tonight. Winds and seas will
relax to more favorable conditions early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Fire weather concerns will be somewhat elevated into Monday. Warm
and dry conditions continue through the weekend. Southeasterly winds
this weekend turn a bit more southerly as we head into early next
week. This should allow the sea breeze to push a little more inland
Monday and Tuesday. Rain chances will remain low, generally less
than 10 percent, through Monday before increasing slightly as more
moisture works into the region on Tuesday. High dispersions will
remain over much of the region Sunday before lowering some on Monday
for all but the I-75 corridor and southeastern Alabama.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 213 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

With near zero rain chances for the upcoming week, there are
minimal flooding concerns at this time. Minor flooding is ongoing
along portions of the Suwannee River basin; however, these
portions of the river should exit minor flood, especially with
dry conditions expected areawide over the next week.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   65  85  62  85 /  10   0   0   0
Panama City   68  81  66  81 /   0  10   0   0
Dothan        65  84  62  85 /  10   0   0  10
Albany        63  84  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      64  84  61  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    63  85  59  86 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  69  76  68  77 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for FLZ108-112-
     114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday
     for GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Sunday
     for GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Reese
SHORT TERM...Bunker
LONG TERM....Bunker
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Bunker
FIRE WEATHER...Reese
HYDROLOGY...Bunker