Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS62 KTAE 141433
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1033 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
...New UPDATE, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1028 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
The fog has mostly dissipated and the advisory was allowed to
expire. The rest of the near term forecast looks on track.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 418 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Light southeast flow and a moistening air mass will support early
morning fog development this morning and again on Friday morning.
A cold front will push south through Alabama and Georgia on
Friday, turning up stationary near the Florida state line on
Saturday. Proximity of this front will bring some showers and
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. A strong
cold front will push south across the region late Sunday and
Sunday night, bringing another chance of storms. A cooler and
drier air mass will follow from Monday through next Wednesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 418 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Dense fog is the primary concern this morning with satellite imagery
and local observations showing low stratus and fog spreading
northward toward the I-10 corridor. A Dense Fog Advisory is in
effect for all of our Florida counties until 10am ET/9am CT. We`ll
monitor to see if this needs to be extended in area and/or time
through the morning.
High pressure will scoot off the southeast US coast into the western
Atlantic with a bit of surface ridging extending into our area.
We`ve already seen the first signs of moisture return in the form of
fog this morning, but moisture will be increasing further this
afternoon. Thus, an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out in
the Panhandle this afternoon or evening, especially if the sea
breeze can become more established. Later tonight, most of the rain
should remain out of our area, but conditions appear favorable once
again for at least patchy fog across the area. However, given low
confidence in its evolution and coverage, opted for just patchy fog
in the grids tonight. Temperatures will rise to the lower 80s for
highs today with lows tonight in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 418 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
A broad 500 mb ridge axis will exist over the eastern Gulf on
Friday and Saturday, while a southern stream cutoff low spins over
the Southwest U.S.. In the southwest flow between these two
features, a shortwave will eject out of northern Mexico tonight.
It will then quickly traverse the Lower Mississippi Valley and
the Southeast States on Friday. It will push the surface cold
front that is currently over the Central Plains into central
Alabama and Georgia by Friday evening.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop in advance of that front,
starting Friday along a line from eastern Tennessee into northern
Louisiana. These storms will push southeast through Alabama and
Georgia during the course of Friday, at first tapping into a
moderate unstable air mass with moderate amounts of deep-layer
shear. Storms could be strong as they enter our northern counties
along the U.S. Hwy 82 corridor on Friday afternoon. However,
storms will weaken as rain-cooled outflow pushes the line
southward into a less unstable environment with warmer mid-level
temperatures. Meanwhile, the more favorable upper-level height
falls and jet- stream lift will exit east through South Carolina,
orphaning the withering convection over our region on Friday
evening. If convection even makes it south of a Panama City-
Valdosta line on Friday evening, it will be quite weak by then.
The surface cold front will limp south to near the Florida state
line on Saturday, turning up nearly stationary for a time.
Eastward-propagating multi-cluster thunderstorms storms could
develop along and just south of the surface boundary in the
afternoon, in an environment of moderate convective instability,
moderate deep- layer shear of 30-40 knots, and an east-west axis
of Precipitable Water (PW) values exceeding 1.5 inches. A few
strong storms are possible, characterized by strong outflow winds
and perhaps some hail. However, jet stream dynamics will be
lacking on Saturday, so storms will be dependent on low-level
boundaries and convective cold-pool interactions.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 418 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
An upper trough over the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday will
gradually dig and amplify a bit as it moves off the U.S. East
Coast on Monday and Tuesday. In response, a stronger cold front
will have more push as it moves south through Alabama and Georgia
on Sunday PM, then through North Florida late Sunday night and
early Monday.
Meanwhile, an upper impulse could come rippling through the
southern stream jet stream on Sunday, providing some additional
lift within the weakly to moderately unstable air mass. Once
again, strong thunderstorms are possible, particularly over our
Florida counties where moisture and instability will be more
available.
Behind the cold front, surface high pressure will move from the
Central Plains on Monday, across the Lower Mississippi Valley on
Tuesday, then across the Deep South on Wednesday. Northerly
surface flow and the arrival of a continental polar air mass will
bring a cool and dry air mass from Monday PM through next
Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
LIFR/VLIFR conditions continue at TLH and ECP with low cigs/vsbys
due to dense fog. There`s still some possibility that this fog
makes it to DHN and VLD, but it would be short-lived IFR/LIFR
conditions. ABY should remain VFR. All sites will return to VFR
after 14-15z and will remain there through the day. Easterly winds
become more southerly this afternoon. Overnight tonight, another
round of fog is expected, mostly likely at DHN, ECP, and TLH.
Introduced IFR/LIFR conditions at these terminals after 06z. ABY
and VLD may remain VFR through the night.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 418 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
High pressure extending from the western Atlantic into northeast
Florida will maintain gentle to moderate southeast breezes over
the northeast Gulf waters through Friday. A nearly stationary
front over the Florida Panhandle on Saturday will bring a turn to
gentle and moderate westerly breezes. A stronger cold front will
more solidly push south across the waters around Sunday night,
followed by fresh to strong northerly breezes on Monday and Monday
night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 418 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Light east to southeast transport winds around 10 mph will become
more southerly this afternoon. Thus, good dispersions are expected
across the area, though dispersions will likely remain low along the
coast near Apalachee Bay. Min RH values could drop into the upper
20s near the I-75 corridor, but should be in the mid-30s to near 50
elsewhere. An isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out in the
Florida Panhandle this afternoon.
A cold front approaches the area and stalls Friday into Saturday.
Showers and storms will increase in coverage Friday afternoon and
evening, mostly in the AL and GA zones. Some storms could produce
strong gusty winds. Rain chances linger into Saturday. Outside of
storms, increasing southerly to southwesterly transport winds will
lead to high dispersions on Friday in SW GA and good dispersions
area-wide on Saturday
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1028 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
High flows continue to route downstream along the Flint,
Apalachicola, and the Florida reach of the Choctawhatchee Rivers.
This all stems from heavy rain last Saturday.
The Flint at Albany has been in minor flood for nearly 48 hours
now, but flow contributions from upstream will let off pretty good
on Friday. Below Albany, strong local contributions from the
Ichawaynochaway and others still makes a moderate flood a
possibility at Bainbridge.
The Apalachicola will benefit a little from a reduction in the
flow contribution from the Chattahoochee, but it will remain in
minor flood through at least the middle of next week.
The flood crest on the Choctawhatchee is now moving downstream
between Caryville and Bruce.
Additional rainfall from Friday through Sunday night will most
commonly run in the 0.5-1.25 inch range. Local amounts of 2-3
inches are possible where training or backbuilding storms can
develop on Friday and Saturday. These amounts are not expected to
cause new river flooding. However, short-lived localized runoff
issues are possible where this rain comes down fast enough.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 82 61 86 66 / 0 0 20 10
Panama City 76 64 78 65 / 10 10 10 20
Dothan 81 62 84 63 / 0 10 40 50
Albany 81 59 85 63 / 0 10 40 50
Valdosta 83 59 87 65 / 0 0 30 20
Cross City 83 61 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 70 65 75 65 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Young/Wool
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Haner