Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS62 KTAE 140520
AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
120 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 916 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
The most significant change to the forecast was to bring patchy
fog further northward into portions of Southeast AL and Southwest
GA, as dew points gradually rise overnight. Highest confidence
in areas of fog remains in the Fl counties into Southwest AL, and
fog could be locally dense in these areas on Thursday morning.
Cannot rule out the need for a Dense Fog Advisory for portions of
this area on Thursday morning, so please be cognizant of this
if traveling.
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Through Thursday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
High surface pressure situated over the Southeast US will remain
through the near term keeping our weather fair and quiet. Moisture
moving inland from the Gulf, thanks to the seabreeze, will allow for
the potential for patchy to dense fog developing over our FL
counties during the overnight hours. Fog may extend northward
towards the Dothan, AL area. Fog and low clouds should clear out
soon after daybreak Thursday. Although, cloudy skies are likely to
remain for areas west of the Flint/Apalachicola River basins.
Temperatures for Thursday will start in the low 50s for areas along
and north of I-10. Mid to upper 50s along the coast. Temperatures
will then warm to the low to low-mid 80s by the afternoon for the
high.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday night through Friday night)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
With Ridging to the south and troughing to our north throughout the
short term, we`ll see some vorticity squeeze through as a surface
low pressure moves across eastern CONUS. With much of the forcing to
the north and a weak LLJ, around 20 to 30kts, a low end chance for
severe is possible, but storms are expected to remain sub-severe.
PWATs around 1.5 to 2 inches could lead to some moderate to heavy
downpours which could lead to issues for areas that were flooded in
our last event.
Expect overnight temps generally in the mid 50s to low 60s with
daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
A series of shortwaves over the weekend will bring increased
precipitation chances in association with a front that will move
past the region late Sunday. Along with plenty of moisture advection
from the gulf and higher dewpoints, there is enough instability
(mean CAPE values of 400-800) and bulk shear (about 60 kts) for for
some scattered thunderstorms to form on Saturday. The second
shortwave on Sunday will be a little bit stronger and have more
widespread rain. With confidence of severe threat decreasing, water
will be the main concern with PWATs for the weekend to be around 1.5
inches, which according to sounding climatology is in the upper 90%
for this time of the year. QPF totals up to a quarter inch may be
possible, particularly for the Southern Alabama and Georgia
counties. The rain will be affecting areas with rivers already
sensitive to last week`s rain event, so further flooding hazards
are possible.
Once the front moves through late on Sunday, temperatures and
dewpoints will begin to decrease to below average temperatures for
mid March. Lows will be in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s once
post frontal conditions settle into the region on early Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 108 AM EDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Dense fog and consequent VLIFR conditions have developed at ECP
with a fog deck approaching TLH as I type. Thus, LIFR to VLIFR
conditions are expected at ECP and TLH for much of the night. DHN
and VLD could see drops down to IFR or maybe LIFR near 12z with
fog and/or low stratus. ABY should remain VFR as dry air still
holds on there. Fog will dissipate by 14-15z at all sites with VFR
conditions and light southerly winds for all sites through the
remainder of the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
High pressure over the southeast US will slowly move eastward
into the western Atlantic by Friday. Generally light to moderate
southeasterly winds are expected through Thursday night. A cold
front will approach the forecast area Friday then stall over the
weekend. Winds will become southerly to southwesterly in response.
Seas through the week will be around 1 to 3 feet. Scattered
showers and storms will be possible Friday through the weekend
over the waters.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Poor dispersions on Thursday with low dispersions below 20 units
along the immediate coast. Dispersions improve for Friday but,
remain poor along the immediate coast. Also on Friday, there are
pockets of high dispersions around 70 units in the FL panhandle and
GA districts. Patchy to dense fog is possible tonight for the
Florida Panhandle and may extend northward to the Alabama
districts.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024
River flooding continues along the Flint, Apalachicola, and
Choctawhatchee Rivers. The Flint at Albany and the Kinchafoonee at
Dawson are on their way down, but river levels continue to rise
downstream at Newton and Bainbridge, the latter of which is still
forecast to reach moderate flood late tonight or Thursday. On the
Apalachicola side, releases from Woodruff Dam should be on the
decrease, which should allow the levels at Blountstown to start
coming down, albeit very slowly. Farther west on the Choctawhatchee,
we`re just now beginning to crest at Caryville and should crest at
Bruce in about 2 days. Many of our other rivers are in action stage.
Upcoming rain this weekend could aggravate already swollen and full
river basins, particularly the Choctawhatchee and the ACF. There is
a wide spread in rainfall forecasts for the end of the week into the
weekend, which lends low confidence to how the rivers will respond.
However, should we get another 2 to 4 inches of rain this weekend,
many rivers could return to minor flood.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 83 58 85 65 / 0 0 10 20
Panama City 77 62 78 66 / 10 0 10 30
Dothan 80 59 83 64 / 10 0 30 60
Albany 81 56 85 64 / 0 0 40 50
Valdosta 84 58 87 65 / 0 0 20 30
Cross City 84 59 84 62 / 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 71 62 74 65 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Montgomery
SHORT TERM...Oliver
LONG TERM....Porcelli
AVIATION...Young
MARINE...Oliver
FIRE WEATHER...Montgomery
HYDROLOGY...Oliver