Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 130801
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
401 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Fair weather will prevail through tonight. A surface high pressure
ridge axis will extend westward from the Atlantic across south
Georgia today, keeping light winds in place along with a dry air
mass north of the Florida state line. Nearshore seabreezes will
bring a little moistening of the air mass over our Florida counties.
This moistening over our Florida and far south Georgia counties will
support development of areas of fog late tonight, possibly dense
around sunrise on Thursday morning.

Otherwise, an upper level impulse over far eastern Texas right now
will bring plenty of high clouds today, possibly becoming opaque at
times. High temperatures today will be similar to Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

High pressure will begin sliding eastward into the western
Atlantic with a cold front approaching the area on Friday. Upper-
level ridging until then will keep things quite warm for our area.
In fact, many places Thursday and especially Friday will see high
temperatures reach the middle 80s with lows in the 50s and 60s.

A shortwave will move across the Tennessee Valley Friday, eroding
the northern part of the ridge and sending a cold front toward the
Gulf Coast. However, it won`t clear our area; more on that in the
long term section. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible along the northern periphery of our forecast area, closer
to where the cold front and shortwave will be located. PWATs will
also increase to about 1.4 to 1.6 inches ahead of the front, which
could help storms produce some heavier downpours. Additionally,
there will be some instability, but it won`t be lined up with the
best shear or lift. Thus, while a strong storm or two cannot be
ruled out, severe weather potential appears low. The front sags
southward into our area Friday night before stalling.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

The weekend is a bit interesting with a stationary front likely
setting up in or near our area. Shortwaves will continue riding
along the Gulf Coast -- one on Saturday and a stronger one on
Sunday. We`ll still have plenty of moisture in place with PWATs
still in the 1.3 to 1.6 inch range, with higher amounts over the
Florida counties. This front will serve as the focus for scattered
showers and thunderstorms, though the best chances for rain arrive
Sunday with the stronger shortwave. Instability will still be
sufficient for storms over the weekend, but shear isn`t
particularly high -- around 40 to 50 kt in the 0-6 km shear. Thus,
a low-end strong to briefly severe storm or two is possible, but
heavy downpours look to be the greater hazard. If storms end up
training over the weekend thanks to generally west-southwest flow
parallel to the frontal boundary, then localized flash flooding
may become possible. But uncertainty remains high at this time.
Temperatures over the weekend will be in the 80s during the day
and 60s at night.

Once the front finally clears our area Sunday night, much cooler
air returns in its wake. Temperatures fall to below normal levels
with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 146 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

The main concern through this morning will be the development of
low clouds and possibly fog at TLH. Satellite imagery currently
shows low clouds moving north off the Gulf near AAF
(Apalachicola), where cloud bases of 1,300 feet are being
reported. S-SW flow aloft in that layer will bring the clouds and
moister air toward TLH early this morning. At first, IFR stratus
may arrive. As we get near sunrise, fog is possible for a couple
hours.

Elsewhere, DHN and ABY will be too far inland and dry for anything
other than high cirrus. Low odds exist at ECP and VLD for some
brief IFR cigs around sunrise, but odds are too low to include in
the TAF for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

High pressure over the southeast US today will slowly move
eastward into the western Atlantic by Friday. Generally light to
moderate southeasterly winds are expected through Thursday night.
A cold front will approach the forecast area Friday then stall
over the weekend. Winds will become southerly to southwesterly in
response. Seas through the week will be around 1 to 3 feet.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible Friday through the
weekend over the waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

A moister air mass will creep inland from the Gulf over our Florida
districts today, while inland districts over Alabama and Georgia
will hold on to a dry air mass for one more day. Moister southerly
flow will make further inroads north of the Florida state line on
Thursday and Friday, bringing a warmer and muggier air mass by
Friday. Fair to poor daytime dispersion today will improve some on
Thursday, improving even more on Friday, as southerly transport
winds gradually increase.

A moistening air mass will support areas of dense fog around sunrise
on Thursday morning, mainly over our Florida and far south Georgia
districts. Patchy fog is possible on Friday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 326 AM EDT Wed Mar 13 2024

River flooding continues along the Flint, Apalachicola, and
Choctawhatchee Rivers. The Flint at Albany and the Kinchafoonee at
Dawson are on their way down, but river levels continue to rise
downstream at Newton and Bainbridge, the latter of which is still
forecast to reach moderate flood late tonight or Thursday. On the
Apalachicola side, releases from Woodruff Dam should be on the
decrease, which should allow the levels at Blountstown to start
coming down, albeit very slowly. Farther west on the
Choctawhatchee, we`re just now beginning to crest at Caryville and
should crest at Bruce in about 2 days. Many of our other rivers
are in action stage. Upcoming rain later in the week could
aggravate already swollen and full river basins, particularly the
Choctawhatchee and the ACF. There is a wide spread in rainfall
forecasts for the end of the week into the weekend, which lends
low confidence to how the rivers will respond. However, should we
get another 2 to 4 inches of rain this weekend, many rivers could
return to minor flood.

Regarding the flash flood component, soils across much of the area
west of the ACF are wet. The good news is the plants are leafing
out, which should help soak up some of the water, and we have a
couple more dry days ahead. As alluded to in the river flood
discussion, this weekend`s setup is quite uncertain with a large
spread in rainfall total forecasts. WPC has included our southeast
Alabama counties in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall (level 1
of 4) for Friday and the entire forecast area for Sunday. Current
deterministic forecasts yield about 1 to 1.5 inches across AL and
GA with 0.5 to 1 inch in FL. However, much will depend on where
the front stalls this weekend, and where disturbances and moisture
set up best. The reasonable worst case rainfall would bring 2 to 4
inches of rain to much of the area, which could yield a localized
flash flood risk.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   77  51  82  60 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   72  57  77  63 /   0   0  10   0
Dothan        75  51  81  60 /   0   0  10  10
Albany        75  48  81  57 /   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      78  49  84  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    79  53  84  60 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  70  59  71  62 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Haner
SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Haner
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Haner
HYDROLOGY...Young


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