Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTAE 181721
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
121 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Light shower activity should be exiting the Florida Big Bend through
the early morning hours as the cold front finally pushes through the
CWA. In the cold fronts wake, dry air will be advecting into the
region throughout the day, which will quickly scour out any
lingering clouds by mid-day, with near clear skies expected by the
evening. Across the upper levels, a late season trough is expected
to dig south into south central Georgia by tonight, which will aid
in the cold air advection across the region as 500mb heights fall
areawide. In conjunction with the aforementioned height falls,
surface pressure will be quickly increasing throughout the day as
high pressure pushes into the region today. This will lead to a
tight pressure gradient across the region as well as gusty afternoon
winds. While temperatures tonight are forecast to fall into the mid
to upper 30s areawide, the potential for frost is looking less
likely as winds look to remain elevated through the overnight hours.
RH values from 06-12 UTC look to peak around 60%, which is low for
frost development. While frost is unlikely, there could be the
potential for patchy frost in sheltered locations where ground
moisture may lead to micro-climates of higher RH across portions of
SE Alabama and SW Georgia. These locations have the best chances for
frost development given the cooler low temperatures forecast
tonight. High temperatures today will struggle against cold air
advection; however, they are expected to climb into the mid 60s in
SE Alabama and SW Georgia, and the low 70s across the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Deep west-northwest upper level flow will keep the weather cool
and dry. A cool continental surface high will drop south through
eastern Texas, with a ridge axis extending east. This ridge axis
will pass south across the service area on Tuesday, then hang out
over the northern Gulf on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Given its proximity on Tuesday night, winds will readily go calm.
Clear skies and dry air will provide ideal conditions for
radiational cooling. So early Wednesday morning will be the most
favorable time for our typically colder spots to bottom out in the
mid 30s and support some patchy frost.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The cutoff upper low which has loitered over the Southwest U.S.
and northwest Mexico will finally budge this week and start to
move straight east. As the upper trough axis crosses the Southern
Plains on Thursday, upper level diffluence will overspread the
Gulf on Thursday night, and a dual jet structure will be
favorable for a strengthening surface low moving east across the
Gulf. The most likely track would take the surface low across the
FL Peninsula on Friday. This most likely track would keep the
forecast area on the cooler and more stable poleward side of the
low, with rain and showers, and perhaps some embedded elevated
thunder over our FL counties. However, there is a notable cluster
of ensemble members that take the low more northeast across the
Big Bend region and far south Georgia. If this left hand track
were to verify, then a warm, moist unstable air mass would have a
chance to spread northward as well, with the structure of the low
possibly supporting hodographs and a shear profile favorable to
all convective modes around Friday. Again, this outcome will be
highly conditional on a more left hand track of the low.

Regardless of the track that the low takes, once it moves out into
the Atlantic, dry northerly surface winds on its back side will
arrive in time for next weekend. Despite the northerly winds, the
air mass next weekend looks quite seasonable, with near normal
temperatures expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A cold front pushing through the area will continue to
erode lower clouds across all sites with KVLD likely holding onto
MVFR CIG`s for the next hour or so. Following this, winds will shift
to northerly at all sites with clear skies through the remainder of
the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

A cold front will sweep across the waters early this morning.
Northwest breezes behind the front will become strong by this
evening, with a few gusts approaching gale-force tonight. A high
pressure ridge extending eastward from Texas will quickly settle
over the waters Tuesday afternoon, remaining in place through
Wednesday night. Surface low pressure will quickly move east
across the Gulf and Florida Peninsula on Thursday night and
Friday. North of the low, easterly breezes will develop, possibly
becoming strong at times.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

An upper level trough will push through the region today, which will
lead to gusty northwest winds through the mid morning and afternoon
hours. These strong winds combined with mixing heights around 4,400
to 4,600 feet will lead to high dispersions for areas primarily west
of the Flint and Apalachicola river basins. Although dry air will be
advecting into the region, minimum RH values today will only drop
into the upper 30s to low 40s. Expect much lower minimum RH values
on Tuesday as dry air continues to push into the area. Minimum RH
values on Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be in the low to mid
20s; however, winds will be near calm as high pressure settles into
the region. Although RH values will be low, there are no fire
weather concerns at this time outside of high dispersions given the
recent rainfall across the region the last week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 346 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The back end of the flood wave stemming from heavy rain on March 9
has almost finished its trek down the Flint River, with the
Bainbridge gage expected to drop below flood stage later today.
High flows and minor flooding will continue along the Apalachicola
River throughout this work week.

Rainfall this past weekend was not enough to cause new flooding.
Upcoming dry weather from this afternoon through Thursday
morning will allow rivers to continue flushing water and generally
receding.

The next round of rain will come on Thursday night and Friday. The
heavier rainfall amounts are forecast over our Florida counties,
with the most likely amounts currently around a non-concerning
one inch. However, there are some low-probability outlier
solutions that show around 3 to 4 inches of rain over the Big Bend
region, which would be more significant.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   39  63  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   39  62  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        34  61  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Albany        34  60  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      37  61  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    39  64  36  70 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  42  60  45  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for FLZ112-114.

GA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
     GAZ120>124-142.

AL...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for
     ALZ065>067.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday
     for GMZ730-755-765-775.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 AM CDT
     Tuesday for GMZ750-752-770-772.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Haner
LONG TERM....Haner
AVIATION...Worster
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...Bunker
HYDROLOGY...Haner


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.