856
FXUS62 KTAE 070533
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
133 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1004 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

The forecast is on track, so no updates needed.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Mainly isolated convection should diminish this evening and pave the
way for quiet, but muggy overnight conditions. Fog and low stratus
redevelops over the FL counties, then spreads to the remainder of
the Tri-State area through the early morning hrs. Some of the fog
has the potential to be dense once again, but confidence was not
high enough to issue an advisory at this time. The best chances
appear to be over Southern AL/Western FL Panhandle. Conditions
should improve by mid morning. Forecast lows range from the upper
60s inland to around 70 along the coast.

For tomorrow, a building subtropical ridge from the SW Gulf sets the
stage for 3-day period of hot weather characterized by daily inland
high temperatures in the upper 80s/low 90s. Heat indices will be a
few degrees hotter. Strong subsidence from this ridge should
suppress most if not all convection. These conditions can be harmful
to those sensitive to heat, so please take the necessary precautions
if exposed. For beachgoers, be mindful of what color flags are
flying: red = high risk for rip currents while yellow = moderate.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Fairly benign period of weather with ridging in control. Cannot rule
out an isolated shower or rumble of thunder across SE AL and SW GA
late Wednesday. Unseasonably warm with highs in the upper 80s to low
90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Southern stream shortwave energy will lead to an unsettled period of
weather centered on Thursday and Friday with a slow frontal passage.
Cannot rule out heavy rain and severe weather, especially on Friday.
The timing of the front will determine the severe weather potential
with otherwise favorable shear. Temperatures cool to more seasonable
levels Friday and Friday night with the passage of the front. Some
lingering clouds/showers are possible into the weekend if the front
slows with the support of addt`l southern stream shortwave energy,
but that is still uncertain, and the forecast leans drier attm.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Some low stratus is starting to develop in and around KECP and
KDHN early this morning. Expect that to fill in over the next
couple of hours leading to at least IFR conditions with LIFR
conditions possible near sunrise. Elsewhere, IFR to LIFR ceilings
are expected to develop later this morning, generally after 09Z,
and continue until about 13Z or so. There is also the potential
for fog, especially in and around KTLH and KECP between 11Z and
13Z. Amendments may be necessary depending on how the early
morning hours go.

Ceilings should start to lift to VFR after 13Z with VFR conditions
forecast the rest of the TAF period. Winds will generally be
light to moderate out of the south to southwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1007 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Late this evening, Buoy 42036 was observing southerly breezes of
4-6 knots, and southerly waves of 2 feet at 4 seconds.

From CWF synopsis...A high pressure ridge will extend from from
south of Bermuda across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday.
Gentle southerly breezes will slowly increase to moderate
southerlies as we move through the middle of the week. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday night into
Friday night as a cold front approaches. The front is expected to
pass the waters Friday night with northwest winds in its wake.
Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet this week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

Minimal rain chances are on tap for Tuesday and Wednesday, but the
tradeoff will be hot afternoon conditions when high temperatures
surge into the upper 80s/low 90s away from the immediate coast. Heat
indices will be a few degrees hotter. By Thursday coverage of
showers/thunderstorms increase ahead of an approaching front from
the NW. Even wetter & stormier weather is expected on Friday once
the front moves through the region. Widespread wetting rains are
likely. Persistent southerly winds maintain a moist airmass. Lastly,
high afternoon dispersions are forecast through Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 251 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

The main concern is rainfall centered on Friday ahead of the next
cold front. The highest amounts are expected in the AL/GA counties
where WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall, but this
threat may shift southward into the FL counties in subsequent
forecasts. On the rivers, there are no flooding concerns at this
time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   69  90  72  91 /   0  10   0  30
Panama City   73  85  74  85 /   0   0   0  20
Dothan        70  92  73  89 /   0  10   0  50
Albany        69  92  71  90 /   0  10   0  50
Valdosta      68  92  70  91 /   0  10   0  30
Cross City    67  89  68  87 /   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  73  82  75  82 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...IG3
SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...Haner
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...LF