939
FXUS62 KTBW 041239
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
839 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 826 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

There is more moisture in place across the area this morning. The
12z TBW sounding depicts 1.39 inches of PW. This is around
a quarter of an inch more than yesterday mornings sounding. This
value is also around the 75th percentile of early May PW
climatology. Additionally, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s
to low 70s across most of the peninsula.

The broader upper level pattern features ridging across the
Caribbean northwards into New England. However, there is a weak
shortwave across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This weak shortwave
trough will move onshore around the time of peak heating and
seabreeze activity. All of the above coupled with the higher than
normal PW values should lead to the best chances for
showers/storms that we`ve seen in several days. Chances for
showers and storms will range from as low as 20% along the coast
to as high as 50% across the interior. Highs today will climb into
the upper 80s to low 90s for most locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR conditions persist across the terminals. Isolated to scattered
showers/storms will develop later this afternoon (after 21z). A
few of these showers/storms could impact the terminals. For now,
have only mentioned VCSH at KRSW, KFMY, KPGD, and KLAL. Will
continue to monitor conditions throughout the day to evaluate the
need of VCTS/TSRA in the terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Atlantic high pressure will ridge into the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico through the rest of the weekend and into early next week,
with southeasterly flow turning onshore near the coast each
afternoon with the sea breeze. The ridge will drift south Tuesday
and Wednesday, with winds becoming slightly more southerly. Wind
speeds will remain below headline criteria. Rain chances will
remain low, but a few sea breeze storms could drift into the
waters each day during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Relative humidity may briefly drop to critically low levels each
afternoon this weekend, mainly over the interior. However, wind
speeds are not forecast to be fast enough to cause Red Flag
Conditions. Otherwise, spotty high dispersion indices will be
possible each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  73  89  73 /  20  20  30  10
FMY  90  70  90  70 /  40  40  40  20
GIF  91  70  90  69 /  30  20  50  10
SRQ  89  71  89  71 /  20  20  30  10
BKV  91  65  90  65 /  20  20  40  10
SPG  87  75  87  74 /  20  30  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson
DECISION SUPPORT...Close
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close