Routine Space Environment Product (Daily) Issued by NWS
000
FXXX10 KWNP 150031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 15-Apr 17 2024 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 15-Apr 17 2024
Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 17
00-03UT 3.00 3.00 1.33
03-06UT 3.33 3.00 1.33
06-09UT 5.00 (G1) 2.33 1.33
09-12UT 4.00 2.00 1.33
12-15UT 2.33 1.33 1.67
15-18UT 2.00 1.00 1.67
18-21UT 2.33 1.33 1.67
21-00UT 2.67 2.00 1.33
Rationale: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely
on 15 Apr due to CME effects and CH HSS influences.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 15-Apr 17 2024
Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 17
S1 or greater 1% 1% 1%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 14 2024 0232 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 15-Apr 17 2024
Apr 15 Apr 16 Apr 17
R1-R2 45% 45% 45%
R3 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 15-17 Apr.