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000
FXUS64 KTSA 252344
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
644 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Some convection continues across far NE OK this afternoon
along and just north of a surface warm front. As this feature
continues to lift north, the area should be mostly convection
free until later tonight. Additional storms are expected to
develop within a low level jet axis that sets up to the west
late this evening. An area of storm will spread east into NE OK
after 09z. Large hail and straight line winds will be the primary
severe threats but an isolated tornado threat will exist given
the favorable shear that will be in place.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Convection will be ongoing Friday morning, however the severe
threat will lessen through the morning as the low level jet
subsides. Storms may linger across far NW AR into the afternoon,
so will keep high PoPs in those areas after 18z. Isolated
to scattered storms that can develop back further to the west
during the afternoon will have severe potential as the airmass in
this area becomes unstable once more. Greatest severe potential
will be Saturday as afternoon storms develop along a surface
dryline to the west. Storms will move east and enter eastern
Oklahoma during the late evening hours. Storm strength will be
maintained by a developing low level jet, along with favorable
diffluence aloft. All modes of severe will be possible before the
severe threat transitions to a more heavy rainfall/ flash flooding
threat. Deep layer moisture over the area along with low level
flow paralleling the mean flow will support training convection
by late Saturday evening and during the overnight hours across NE
OK, and will enhance the flooding threat. The upper trough axis
will lift through the area on Sunday, with the focus for
convection and some severe weather setting up across SE OK and NW
AR later in the day Sunday. The first part of the week should
remain relatively dry, with increasing storm chances by mid week
and another frontal boundary moves into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Ceilings will remain or become MVFR overnight into Friday morning.
Scattered showers will remain possible at times, but the main
complex of showers and storms will not arrive until late tonight
into Friday morning. Most storms will exit the area by late Friday
morning, and ceilings will improve to VFR at the Oklahoma sites
Friday afternoon. Gusty south winds will continue through the
forecast period, with LLWS developing overnight as the low level
jet strengthens.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  82  67  81 /  90  70  10  70
FSM   62  78  67  84 /  70  90  60  50
MLC   67  79  68  82 /  80  80  30  70
BVO   60  82  63  81 /  90  70  10  70
FYV   58  75  63  81 /  70  90  60  50
BYV   56  73  63  80 /  60  80  60  50
MKO   62  77  65  81 /  90  80  20  60
MIO   59  77  65  81 /  90  90  20  50
F10   65  80  67  80 /  90  70  10  70
HHW   66  75  66  80 /  60  80  40  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...05