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000
FXUS63 KUNR 211729
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1129 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today with increasing southerly winds.

- Turning unsettled this week with chances for showers and
  thunderstorms returning by mid week.

- Windy at times this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday)
Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Semi-progressive NW flow will dominate the weather through the
week, supporting several impulses through the region. WAA will
ramp up today with temps 20 degrees warmer than yesterday. High
will be in the 60s most places with a few 70s possible in NE WY.
However, pressure falls will support increasing southerly winds
with gusts over 30 mph expected on the plains at times in the
afternoon. A fast moving NW flow impulse will advect through the
region tonight into Monday. The main impact from the this system
will be gusty NW winds Monday behind the cool front, mainly across
NW SD, where adv level winds are expected, possibly approaching
warning levels in far NW SD. A few light showers will also be
possible late tonight across the far NW. However, lack of
appreciable moisture (per closed GOMEX) will highly limit
coverage. Unsettled NW flow will then continue to support periodic
chances for rain showers this week, along with a few
thunderstorms, as better moisture profiles return. In addition,
expect fluctuating temps as cold fronts propagate through the
region every other day, with breezy conds behind each front. The
flow then becomes more amplified by next weekend as the next deep
western CONUS trough develops, eventually supporting a storm
system in the Plains by early the following week,

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Monday)
Issued At 1124 AM MDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions will continue through 06z Monday. South-southwest
winds will gust to 30-35kts at times on the open plains through
this evening. A sharp cold front will move through the area 06-15z
Monday with a few gusts to 40-45kts over northwest SD into Monday.
A brief period of local MVFR CIGS are possible behind the front
over northeastern WY/higher Black Hills after 06z Monday.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...Helgeson