Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 270606
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
206 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will remain stalled near Lake Erie into Tuesday as waves of
low pressure ride northeast along the front eventually pulling the
front off to the southeast on Tuesday. High pressure will build
southeast into the area Tuesday night then lift northeast by
Thursday to allow a low to move up the Ohio valley to New Jersey by
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
3H jet pushing eastward across Ohio which puts northern Ohio/NW
PA in a favorable area for lift through the overnight. Will
leave the higher pops going with only minor changes to the
timing of the rain as it moves eastward. There could still be
an isolated rumble of thunder overnight but the atmosphere has
stabilized. So we will remove the mention of thunder from the
forecast.

Previous Discussion...
Energy from the surface and upper low lifting ne across MI
tonight will induce bands of shra and tsra that will move ne
across the cwa. Most of the convection will shift into the east
by the latter part of the night as a weak cold front/trough gets
pulled east across the cwa. Total rainfall from now until 8 am
should generally range from around a quarter of an inch to half
an inch with locally higher amounts where repeat tsra occur.

Lows will be seasonally warm, mostly in the low to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
There will only be a brief break in the rain threat the first half
of the day Monday as the next system moving toward the area will
provide for an increasing threat for shra/tsra in the
afternoon...especially in the west half of the area.

With the track of the surface and upper low across the northern part
of the area, would think measurable rainfall will occur everywhere,
so will increase pops more Mon night into Tue along with QPF.

Temps will stay well above normal into Tue until cooler and drier
air push in for Tue night thru Wed night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The area will be located between high pressure over Quebec on
Thursday with low pressure approaching from the Plains. Another day
of easterly flow off Lake Erie could keep the Toledo area several
degrees cooler than the rest of northern Ohio. Nudged temperatures
down a few degrees downwind of the lake but hard to include much
detail as it will be highly dependent on storm track.

Showers will develop on Thursday night and continue through Friday
as the next in a series of low pressure systems tracks out of the
Plains across the southern Great Lakes. Kept highs in the 50s on
Friday but entirely possible to reach the 60s if the more northern
track of the low shown by the ECMWF/Canadian pans out. This system
pulls away to the east on Saturday but models in poor agreement with
regard to how much moisture/cloud cover lags behind. Showers should
taper off Saturday given the shallow moisture depth with quiet
weather on Sunday as weak high pressure arrives between systems.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Weak occluded front over northwest Ohio will push east overnight
and continue to weaken. Showers along the PA border will move
east. Some uncertainty on how much conditions may deteriorate
overnight. IFR ceilings in northern Indiana will probably clip
KTOL in the early morning hours. IFR clouds that have developed
at KCAK and KYNG may well linger into the daylight hours Monday
morning and could expand to KMFD. Conditions should improve
Monday late morning and especially afternoon as mixing
increases and ceilings rise. More rain and MVFR and eventually
IFR conditions are expected later Monday night as low pressure
moves into Ohio.

OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR much of the time Tue then again by
Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Warm front will continue to move north of Lake Erie this evening
with weak low pressure slowly moving northeast across the Central
Great Lakes. Southerly flow of 10 to 15 knots possible overnight
shifting to southwest on Monday as the low continues northeast into
Canada. Another area of low pressure will move out of the Plains and
cross the Ohio Valley on Monday night. Northerly winds will develop
and pull a cold front back south across Lake Erie. Winds only
expected to be 10-15 knots so may be able to avoid a Small Craft
Advisory despite onshore flow but will need to monitor trends over
the next 36 hours. Strong high pressure will then build east across
Ontario and Quebec from Tuesday night through Thursday with
east/northeast winds on the lake. Easterly winds may increase to 15
to 20 knots for a period of time on Thursday and will need to keep
an eye out for Small Craft conditions on the western basin. Another
area of low pressure will approach from the Plains towards Friday
but models in poor agreement on wind speeds and track at this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...KEC



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