Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 272314

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
714 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Low pressure over Lake Ontario will move off the east coast tonight.
High pressure over the midwest will slide across the Ohio Valley on
Friday. Another low pressure system will cross the Great Lakes over
the weekend with the associated front sagging across the area on
Sunday. High pressure will build in for Sunday night and Monday.


No significant changes for the 630 update.

Original discussion...
Light showers developing on the back side of the surface low
enhanced by the veering flow off Lake Erie will continue at times
into the evening. Also, some radar echoes upstream have developed
off the northern lakes. Just cold enough aloft to keep a small
chance of showers in the forecast tonight, mainly in the snowbelt.
Stratocumulus all the way back to the Mississippi Valley. The models
show some drying from the north by morning but will stick with
clouds given the northwest flow and the time of day. Forecast lows
will be a degree or two above guidance due to the cloud cover.


Decent ridging develops on Friday into Saturday but the next short
wave is already charging across the Rockies and is progged to cross
the lower Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday. The models are not
in agreement on how fast the front sags across the lower and eastern
Great Lakes. The front could drop across Lake Erie as early as
Saturday evening but with the approach of the short wave and weak
development of a surface low on the front, a slower arrival of
the front is preferred. Showers are already mentioned in the
forecast for northeast OH and northwest PA on Saturday and will
keep a small chance across extreme NE OH/NW PA given the
uncertainty. With the increasing southwest flow ahead of the
front, temperatures on Saturday should top off well above normal
with 70s in most areas.

With the entrance region of the jet overhead and the deepening
trough there should be a good chance of rain Saturday night into
Sunday as the front drops across the area. Cooler Sunday although
there is some uncertainty in temperatures depending on the
specific timing of the front.

The front should be southeast of the area by Sunday evening and
high pressure will build across the Great Lakes. It will likely
not be cold enough for lake effect aside from a few clouds.


A weak frontal boundary will move into the forecast area on Tuesday.
This system is forecast to become quasi-stationary over the region
for the middle part of the week.  Initially,  the front has very
limited moisture and guidance is not indicating significant
precipitation chances on Tuesday.  A low pressure wave will develop
along the front Wednesday.  Moisture and dynamics will increase with
the wave. Model guidance values increase precipitation chances
Wednesday into Thursday.  Temperatures are expected to be well above
normals on Tuesday but should cool back to seasonal normals mid to
late week.


.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Low pressure is to our northeast this evening while high pressure
is building in from the west. Conditions continue mostly MVFR
across Northern Ohio and NWRN PA with ample moisture trapped in
the boundary layer under a strong inversion based around 3kft MSL.
The airmass remains fairly moist at and below the inversion
through the overnight before drying from the north and west during
the day. Feel MVFR cigs will persist longer than guidance so will
keep cigs MVFR through the night with patchy IFR possible at KYNG
which is in line with an expanding area of light lake effect rain.
This should begin to shift after 08z. Expect conditions to turn
VFR around 15z west. Further east 16-18z expect VFR cigs but those
should break to scattered after 18-22z.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Saturday night and more likely on
Sunday possibly lasting into Sunday night. Non-VFR possible again


A low pressure system will move east of the lakes this evening.
Pressure gradient across the lakes remains fairly significant.
Northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots are possible through the evening
with waves 3 to 5 feet. I will continue the current small craft
advisory.  Winds will decrease late tonight and should drop below
small craft criteria a few hours after midnight.

High pressure will build over the area on Friday morning.  Winds
will become light and somewhat variable as we transition into the
high pressure system.  Eventually winds will shift to the south to
southwest during the afternoon on Friday.  This southwest flow will
continue through Saturday.  Winds will increase in strength Saturday
afternoon as another cold front approaches the area for Sunday.
Winds and waves may approach small craft criteria on Saturday.

A front will move across the lake on Sunday.  This will bring a wind
shift to the north northwest Sunday afternoon.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>149.


SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Garnet
MARINE...Garnet is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.