Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 292300
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
700 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will push east across the area tonight. High
pressure will briefly build into the region Tuesday before a
weak trough of low pressure swings through the southern Great
Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. A large area of high
pressure will drift east across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
Wednesday through Thursday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Watching two areas of showers with isolated thunder. The first
was across northwest Ohio ahead of the cold front. Made the
showers "scattered" versus "chance" for northwest Ohio this
evening. The other area of showers was across extreme northeast
OH and northwest PA. These showers should shift east and
diminish by 8 PM or so. Made a few other minor adjustments to
the pop tonight based on the latest meso models to keep a
chance/slight chance of showers a little longer across north
central Ohio tonight. No other changes for the evening update.

Original "Tonight" discussion...
Isolated showers beginning to develop mainly east of the I-71
corridor this afternoon. Went ahead and upped pops to mid chance
for a few hours late this afternoon. A few rumbles of thunder
are possible, with around 500 j/kg of SBCAPE across the area. A
cold front will push east across the area tonight. Hi- res
guidance continues to indicate widely scattered precip ahead of
the front, spreading east across the area through the night,
with slight chance to low chance pops in general. Some thunder
is possible through the evening but any thunder chances should
diminish overnight as the atmosphere stabilizes. Mainly dry
conditions are expected on Tuesday as high pressure briefly
builds through the area. Another weak trough passage through the
area Tuesday night prompts some slight chance pops across the
area. No major changes to temperatures from previous forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level trough axis should be moving across the region on
Wednesday with scattered showers/thunderstorms anticipated. High
pressure then builds into the area Wednesday night with drier
conditions returning. The high will move east of the region by
Thursday night with increasing chances of showers as the next
wave approaches in the NW flow.


Wednesday will see temperatures slightly below seasonal averages
but all locations return to average levels for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast
on Friday as yet another wave moves through the upper level
trough. These storms could be a bit stronger but that is
something to watch over the next few days. Cold front should be
moving into central Ohio on Saturday with any
showers/thunderstorms moving south of the region by Saturday
afternoon. Models differ on the timing of this system across the
area so changes may occur over the next few shifts. High
pressure should build back into the region Sunday into Monday
with drier conditions anticipated.

Temperatures will run within a few degrees of seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Cold front just NW of TOL will push across the forecast area
tonight. Currently scattered showers with isolated tsra ahead of
the front. The tsra will diminish after sunset. MFVR conditions
in the heavier rain showers.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR at times Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves should decrease overnight with waves running in
the 1 to 3 foot range. Southwesterly winds will increase Tuesday
night into Wednesday but we should not have any larger waves on
the south shore of the lake. As a weak trough/front crosses the
lake on Wednesday allowing winds to shift more to the west. This
may build waves to near small craft advisory levels Wednesday
into Wednesday evening. Winds decrease for Thursday as high
pressure moves across southern Ohio.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt/Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Greenawalt/Mullen


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