Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 062315
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
615 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST REACHING THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY MONDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE ENOUGH INFLUENCE FROM THE
HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS
WILL DROP TO THE MID/UPPER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECTING THE SYSTEM TO BE WEAKENING AS
IT APPROACHES BUT SHOULD STILL SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY EVENING WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT. MODELS MOVE THIS FEATURE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS MOISTURE AND LIFT
INCREASE AS IT DOES. WILL BEGIN WITH CHANCE POPS WEST BUT WILL
QUICKLY BOOST TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL. MODELS SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY
SLOT THAT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MONDAY WILL BEGIN
WITH CAT POPS EAST AND CHANCE WEST...STILL UNDER THE DRY SLOT. FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER WILL HAVE MOST OF THE AREA WITH A LIKELY
POPS. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
NAM SHOWS A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL
CONTINUE LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
THE LINGERING UPPER LOW/TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN PROBLEM
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MARGINAL TEMPS. TEMPS BEGIN SUNDAY
EVENING ABOVE FREEZING AS PRECIP BEGINS AND 925MB TEMPS ARE ALSO
ABOVE FREEZING SO EXPECTING RAIN. FOLLOWING THE NAM12...SUNDAY
NIGHT...TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT WHILE
IN THE EAST THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS.
WILL CHANGE PRECIP TO SNOW WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL KEEP A MIX
EAST. MONDAY THE BEST CHANCE FOR ALL SNOW SHOULD BE WEST WITH A
MIX AT LEAST IN THE AFTERNOON EAST. CONFIDENCE INCREASES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW. WILL KEEP ACCUMS
LIMITED GIVEN TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SECOND COLD FRONT WITH THE ARCTIC AIR SHOULD BE PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA TUE WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LAKE EFFECT
TYPE SITUATION THAT WILL THEN PERSIST THRU SAT. THE LAKE EFFECT
MAY BE INTERRUPTED AROUND FRI INTO FRI NIGHT AS A CLIPPER TYPE LOW
MAY BE DROPPING SE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BRINGING THE NEXT
REINFORCING BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOTHER BAND OF STRATUS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LAKES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
SNOW AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY SW WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS BACKING TO S UNTIL MON WHEN THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE. WINDS TURN BACK TO
SW LATER MON THEN TO WNW BY TUE AFTER THE NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHES
THRU AND INCREASES TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THAT LASTS INTO THU BEFORE
SOME DIMINISHING TAKES PLACE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...ADAMS


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