Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 051110
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
710 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MICHIGAN WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A
WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...THEN
PUSH SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES DEVELOPED
OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL FROM VANLUE TO
FOSTORIA TO NEAR WOODVILLE. STORM MOTION IS VERY SLOW WITH STORMS
BUILDING TO NORTH AT 5-10 MPH. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT SOME AREAS
HAVE ALREADY HAD OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN AND ARE MONITORING FOR ANY
FLOODING ISSUES. STORMS ARE APPROACHING THE TOLEDO AREA AND HEAVY
RAIN LOOKS TO IMPACT AT LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE MORNING
COMMUTE. IT APPEARS THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN AREA
OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS AN UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS
MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS INDIANA AND NW OHIO AHEAD OF THE DRIER AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE RUC SHOWS THIS SPOKE
OF ENERGY WILL TEND TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER
THAT MODELS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WEAKENING AND SLOWLY
LIFTING NE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT TO
SEE THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IN THE WEST TEND TO WEAKEN
THROUGH 13-14Z THEN WAIT FOR INSTABILITY TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS GIVEN THE WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH POCKETS OF CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THERE WILL
BE LESS OF A TRIGGER THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
INITIATION IN NW OHIO ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE WAVE AND NE
OHIO ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED...CAN NOT RULE OUT A WARNING OR TWO AS
STRONG CELLS COLLAPSE. NOT ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ANYTHING MORE
ORGANIZED TODAY.

WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP THAN YESTERDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE MID 80S IN PA TO NEAR 90 IN NW OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING ALOFT
ON SUNDAY. THE TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EXCEPT FOR NE OHIO/NW PA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AGAIN ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. DEWPOINTS START TO MIX OUT BY MONDAY
AND EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO FINALLY PREVAIL WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY CAPPED.

THE RIDGE ALOFT STARTS TO FLATTEN BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE MIDWEST. GFS IS STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SHORTWAVE
ENERGY STREAMING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS ENERGY AND OUTPACES THE RETURN OF
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FILL IN TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH. GIVEN THE SLOWER
TIMING...KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH MODELS SIGNALING
CHANGE OF THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN MID WEEK.   UNFORTUNATELY THE
ECMWF IS COMING INTO LINE WITH THE LATEST GFS.  ALTHOUGH GFS A
LITTLE FASTER ON THE TIMING TREND IS STILL THE SAME.  MODELS PUSH
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY ONLY TO STALL THE
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.  MEANWHILE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS NICE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY A DIGGING
TROUGH BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION FROM NW OH INTO THE WESTERN BASIN WILL DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTED TSRA TO REDEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE AGAIN APPEARS TO BE NW OHIO. ADDED VCTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR TOL AND FDY.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON.   SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE LAKE EARLY IN
THE WORK WEEK AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.  MODELS CONTINUE TO
HOLD OFF THE NEXT FRONT UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.