Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 210123
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
923 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
KANSAS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD OUT OF QUEBEC THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END. MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE
AREA WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. A NEW
IMPULSE WILL BRING IN NEW CONVECTION TOWARD MORNING...ITS EXACT
POSITION STILL UP IN THE AIR. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS FOR OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES AFTER ABOUT 4 AM. HAVE ADDED THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG TO EASTERN AREAS THAT SAW THE MOST RAIN AND WILL HAVE A
PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MID 60S FOR LOWS LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE IN THE AREA THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR RIGHT NOW WHICH AREA WILL
NEED IT. IT SEEMS TO BE SOUTH OF A TOLEDO TO MANSFIELD TO
YOUNGSTOWN LINE. FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING A
THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE FLOOD AND SEVERE POTENTIAL
MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON SUNDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING A DOMINANT UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THAT EXTENDS NORTH ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY AS IT DRIFTS NORTH TO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MAIN CONCERN IS FOR ANY POP UP
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS AS WELL AS ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE. FOR NOW REALLY
DIFFICULT TO PICK UP ON ANYTHING CONCRETE SO FOR NOW WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OR LOWER OTHERWISE. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL...GENERALLY CENTRAL
AND WEST. NORTHEAST OHIO AND NWRN PA SHOULD BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
JUST A COUPLE SMALL SHOWERS LEFT ACROSS THE AREA AND THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING WILL BE DRY. THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER THROUGH 06Z BUT THEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO
RETURN. STILL EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR VSBYS LATER TONIGHT WITH
PATCHY IFR AS WELL. NEW GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER AREA OF
PRECIP DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND POSSIBLY MOVING ACROSS NW OHIO
TOWARD DAYBREAK. WILL INCLUDE A FEW HOURS OF PRECIP AT THE WESTERN
TAF SITES. BETTER CHANCES WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. TIMING AND COVERAGE STILL UP IN
THE AIR SO JUST TEMPO MENTIONS MOST AREAS FOR NOW. EXPECT THE
COVERAGE WILL BE THE GREATEST IN THE WEST. LIGHT FLOW OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME S TO SW THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN W AROUND MIDDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY. A WARM
FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS OHIO
THURSDAY AND ONTO THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND KEEPING WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT.  WAVES AS A RESULT SHOULD CONTINUE AT 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...TK



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