Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 200449
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1150 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will continue to run well above normal this
week. A cold front Tuesday will not even be able to break the
streak. A stronger system Friday will bring colder air back to
the region for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Slight increase in cloud cover overnight as cirrus streaming
around the upper level ridge arrives with periods of partly
cloudy skies. There is also a considerable gradient noted in
dewpoints across central Ohio at 23Z with 35 degrees observed
FDY/MNN and 45 degrees at DAY/CMH. HRRR model data shows
extensive fog expected to develop across much of Indiana and
southern Ohio in the moisture rich area. Did introduce a mention
of patchy fog overnight in the southwestern counties as a light
east to southeast wind will put these locations on the fringe of
the expected fog/stratus deck.

Previous discussion...In general high pressure will be in
control across the area tonight. Skies will be clear through the
evening and with light winds...temperatures will fall quickly
toward and after dark. The remnants of a back door cold front
will press across NY...and this may bring cloud cover into
northwest PA overnight. The bulk of the cold air stays northeast
of our area...but will likely see temperatures dip below
freezing for far eastern OH and nw PA. Others will be in the
30s. A decent amount of drying has taken place today and not
expecting fog to be all that bad. Confidence is low...but would
be most likely across the southern locations where dewpoints
remain a bit higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The surface high will be shifting east of the area on Monday and
winds will come around from the east-northeast to the
southeast...and eventually south by Monday night. We will warm
nicely again tomorrow...with the exception of the immediate
lake shore where winds will remain northeast. Another spread of
upper 40s near the lake...upper 50s for most...and a few spots
hitting 60. Southerly flow Monday night will keep areas warmer
than the night before.

There is a cold front Tuesday. It has remained on target for the
daytime hours. Most of the guidance brings showers into Toledo
in the morning...midday Cleveland Mansfield and takes showers
across the eastern part of the area in the afternoon. Coverage
still does not warrant higher than 60 or maybe 70 percent. Bulk
of the upper support will be north of the area. Will still go
above guidance temperatures. There will be time for the
central/eastern areas to warm well. Guidance has been running
cool too...as would be expected in a unseasonably warm regime.
There is room though for those temperatures to not pan out...but
it will not be too far off.

Again no real cold air behind the front and with high pressure
returning to the Ohio Valley...a southwest flow will mean
another really warm day. Made no change to the mid/upper 60s we
had going.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging is progged to continue across the area and our spring
pattern will continue into late week. One of the west coast storms
will dig across the southern Rockies mid week and lift out late in
the week.

In the meantime, the models are coming more into agreement of a weak
front, or at least frontogenesis, across the lower Great Lakes on
Thursday. Not sure how much rain might occur but will include at
least a chance or slight chance of showers in most areas. Warm
frontogenesis will occur Thursday night into Friday. The warm front
should move north of the area on Friday in the increasing south
flow. Again, not very confident on the amount of showers that will
occur. We will likely break into the warm sector for a while and I
suspect Friday will become very warm, perhaps nearing 70 again in
many areas.

The models have been suggesting the passage of the strong cold front
will come between late Friday afternoon and about midnight or so
Friday night. Will have higher pops for the frontal passage and will
include thunder and wind.

Colder and blustery on Saturday. Temperatures will likely drop back
to near normal. It will be colder aloft and could see a few
snow/rain showers, especially downwind of Lake Erie in the wrap
around moisture with the trough aloft. High pressure should build in
on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A ridge of high pressure over the area will move off to the east
monday. Light and variable winds will become east to ne into monday
morning with little change into early monday night.

A band of higher dewpoints in the southern part of the area will
likely cause some fog to develop there with some of this fog
probably affecting fdy...mfd and maybe cak. Will stay with mostly a
MVFR forecast for the fog with possibility of some IFR for a while.

Generally expect partly cloudy skies on Monday and into Monday night
once we evaporate the fog in the south with patches of high clouds
and a light east to ne wind.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR should develop Tuesday and continue into Tuesday
night. Non-VFR will develop again Thursday or Thursday night and
continue at times Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Have had some brisk west winds over the central basin this afternoon
in the vicinity of a weak cold front dropping across the south shore
of Lake Erie. Those winds will diminish quickly and veer north and
then east tonight and Monday as high pressure slides east across the
Great Lakes.

The next cold front is due later Tuesday. South to southwest winds
will pick up nicely ahead of the front and become southwest to west
behind the front. Not expecting enough wind for a small craft
advisory.

A light to moderate southwest flow will persist until the next front
drops across the lake on Thursday. Then winds will veer northwest
Thursday but come quickly around from the southeast on Friday as low
pressure tracks across the plains.

The low will be a significant storm system as it tracks across the
northern Great Lakes Friday into Friday night pushing a strong cold
front across Lake Erie Friday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...KEC/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Kosarik



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