Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 302005
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
405 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AND STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS. THE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE EAST AND BUILD SOUTHEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
INTERESTING PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG JET
SLIDING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET STARTS OFF ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND DRIFTS EAST
SOUTHEAST AND LINGERS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE FAST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE GIVEN THE
CURRENT LOCATION. THE BEST THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE IN
THE SWEET SPOT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND UPPER JET BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE HEAVY RAIN
MAY BE MORE OF A THREAT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME SHALLOW AS IT SAGS
SOUTH AND THE OVERRUNNING NORTH OF THE FRONT MAY ENABLE THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA TONIGHT. PW RISES TO 1.75 OR HIGHER IN MOST
AREAS. IT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT NECESSARY AT THE MOMENT EXCEPT AROUND THE
TOLEDO AREA WHERE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE WILL LIKELY BECOME AN
ISSUE. WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN ALL AREAS.

THE TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TONIGHT AFTER THE FRONT.
COMBINE THE RAIN COOLED AIR THE THE WIND SHIFT AND TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP FROM THE 80S TO THE 60S QUICKLY AND THEN THE 50S WITHIN
A COUPLE OF HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE ERIE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A WAVE ON THE FRONT FOR
SEVERAL RUNS NOW AND CANNOT ARGUE AGAINST IT WITH THE TROUGH
CUTTING OFF ALOFT. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WAVE OR WHERE THE TRACK WILL BE. WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/RAIN AND MENTION A CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND TRIPLE POINT MAY BE NEAR
ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE ON THE THUNDER THREAT.

WE TYPICALLY DO NOT HAVE AS MUCH FLOOD RISK IN THE SUMMER WITHOUT
CONVECTION BUT THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY AND WILL KEEP THE
FLOOD WATCH UP INTO THE AFTERNOON...IT CAN BE CANCELLED EARLY IF
THE RAIN IS LIGHTER.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST
PA...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. IT MAY TAKE A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TO
LOSE THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOWERED THE HIGH TEMP FORECAST A BIT
TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BEGIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE
COULD STILL BE TRYING TO SHAKE HIGH CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. IT SHOULD
BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. THE MODELS BEGIN TO SHOW AN INCREASE
IN THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRAY SHOWERS BUT WITH
THE LACK OF A FOCUS FOR FORCING THEY WILL MOST LIKELY BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. I WILL REMAIN IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST
THINKING AND LEAVE THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK. I WILL INTRODUCE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THIS
FEATURE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TAF
LOCATIONS. IN GENERAL CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WAVE
DEVELOPING ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE ON
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT BEFORE THE WAVE DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY DICTATE THE
AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW TOL...CLE AND ERI HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES OF SEEING IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z. MVFR AND IFR WILL BE
WIDESPREAD BY 10Z. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
THUNDER WILL ALWAYS BE POSSIBLE BUT THE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
DURING THE NIGHT HOURS. SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LATE OVERNIGHT BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY SOUTH OF THE LAKE. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE A WIND SHIFT
FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION TO A NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST
DIRECTION. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM 1O TO 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING TO
15 TO 25 KNOTS BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT SO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER EASTERN CANADA FRO
THE START OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW FROM A
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...GARNET
MARINE...GARNET


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