Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 222357
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
657 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley will track across the
Ohio Valley and move off the SE coast Friday.   Low pressure will
track across the Northern Lakes Saturday dragging a strong cold
front across the forecast area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Clouds continue to erode from the west this evening as low level
flow backs and high pressure expands eastward. Have adjusted
the forecast to include a window of mostly clear skies for those
locations, before increasing again with the mid/high cloud
overnight. Expecting the clearing trend to continue to the
south and east except for the snowbelt areas where clouds will
linger with westerly flow lingering off Lake Erie. Continued
the chance of flurries in the east this evening.

Previous discussion...
Stratus deck has begun eroding over NW OH as the drier air
mixes in. Forecast question of the day is how cloudy will it be
tonight? The 850 mb ridge does not reach NW PA until toward
midnight local so the clouds will be slow to erode. In addition
mid level deck will move in from the west overnight as a weak
front moves across ERN Lake Erie. Last night in areas of
clearing the temps plunged to upper teens to lower 20s. In the
cloud covered area temps lingered in the upper 20s to lower 30s.
That said kept clouds partly to mostly cloudy with overnight
lows in the lower to mid 20s. Did leave a few lingering flurries
in the east this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will cross the area Thursday night but it will be
dry for most locations. However there could be a few snow showers
around Erie. We will then see a warming trend with most locations
reaching 45 to 50 degrees. Unfortunately when it gets warm this time
of year it is typically accompanied by gusty south to southwest
winds. The cold front will cross the region late Friday night into
Saturday morning. This front may not have all that much moisture to
lift until it interacts with Lake Erie. So that will produce the
best chances of precipitation across NE OH into NW PA. Rain should
change over to all snow as we approach midnight Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will be moving east across the area Sun night which
will bring any lingering flurries in NW PA to an end. Warmer temps
will spread in Mon thru Tue then the next cold front may push across
the area later Tue night or Wed but the models differ on the timing
of this front. For best collaboration, will stay with the superblend
guidance which appears to take a middle of the road approach,
showing an increasing chc for rain Tue night and Wed. Likewise,
temps on Wed shown to be cooler than Tue due to the possible cold
fropa.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Clouds of 3-4K feet remain from central Ohio to NW PA while
gradually eroding from the west. Low clouds will continue to
slowly clear for inland areas overnight as high pressure expands
eastward, while expected to linger for much of the night at
YNG/ERI. A few flurries possible at ERI but otherwise no
precipitation expected. West/northwest winds will become light
and develop out of the southwest on Thursday with thickening mid
level clouds. OUTLOOK...The next chance for non-VFR conditions
will come Saturday as another cold front moves through.

OUTLOOK...The next chance for non-VFR conditions will come
Saturday as another cold front moves through.

&&

.MARINE...
Update...Updated the lake forecast to boost current conditions.
Getting observations winds are closer to 15 to 25 and waves on
the south shore up to 6 feet in places. Will however continue
the expectation of diminishing conditions as the high builds
into the area.
Original...Winds will continue to decrease on Lake Erie as
high pressure ridges into the area from the Middle Mississippi
River Valley. The northwesterly winds will continue strong
enough to keep waves in the 3 to 5 foot range from Vermilion to
Ripley. The larger waves lingering longest from Geneva-on-the-
lake to Ripley. High pressure will be short lived as the the
next weak frontal boundary moves across the area Thursday night.
The next storm system to impact the lake will be over the
weekend. Southwesterly winds will increase Friday night into
Saturday and may reach small craft advisory levels, greater than
21 knots, early Saturday. A small craft advisory will
definitely be needed in the wake of a cold front Saturday
afternoon into Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/KEC
SHORT TERM...TK/Mullen
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK


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