Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 241723
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
123 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Central Appalachian Mountains will drift
of the Southeastern Coast of the U.S. this afternoon. This will
allow a weak cold front to move southward to around Lake Erie and
become stationary Wednesday evening. A ridge of high pressure
will extend west from the Atlantic Ocean into Northern Ohio and
Northwestern Pennsylvania by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Noon temperatures were in the mid to upper 70s across the region
with only a few cumulus clouds in eastern OH. The airmass will
remain too dry for more than patchy clouds to develop which will
allow for a few more degrees of warming this afternoon. Still
looking at lake breeze this afternoon which will cool the
northeast lakeshore region a few degrees holding them into the
70s. Elsewhere most areas should see temperatures around 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will sag southward toward Lake Erie from the
north on Wednesday. Increased moisture levels, the approaching
front and the lake breeze boundary should all impact the
thunderstorm chances by Wednesday afternoon. However the coverage
of the thunderstorms will likely be limited since the upper level
ridge will remain fairly strong. So at this point in time it
appears that the best chances for isolated to maybe scattered
convection will be closer to the lakeshore and across NW Ohio. The
frontal boundary may never move south of Lake Erie Wednesday
night unless it gets a nudge by some thunderstorm outflow. In any
event the front will lift back to the north on Thursday with some
jet energy riding the north side of the upper level ridge. In this
pattern the better chances of thunderstorms should remain across
NW OH. Later shifts will need to monitor the situation Thursday
afternoon/evening as a piece of jet energy moves across Lake
Huron. It may be close enough to initiate thunderstorms along a
lake boundary to the east of Cleveland. The upper level ridge then
builds a bit more on Friday but with a moist atmosphere and warm
temperatures will have to keep a mention of afternoon/evening
thunderstorms.

It will be warm through the short term with highs warming a degree
or two each day. All inland locations should be well into the 80s
by Friday. It will also become more humid with each day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term begins Saturday with models in decent agreement
showing an upper ridge across the Ohio Valley and Eastern Great
Lakes. At the surface...high pressure will be centered off the East
Coast while low pressure will be centered in the plains. The ridge
will build through Saturday before drifting east to New England for
Sunday exposing the area to more of a swly flow aloft. In general
both the ECMWF and the GFS show elevated moisture through the period
with diurnal instability leading to the expectation of scattered
mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms. temps will be above
normal with highs 80 to 85 Saturday and Sunday...cooling to 75 to
80 Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Mainly clear skies will continue through tonight with high and mid
level clouds moving in tomorrow morning in advance of the next
system. mainly sw flow expected during the period with light winds
tonight. given the pressure gradient the lake breeze may not make
it to KCLE today. Will however take the flow to wnw in a couple of
hours for a few hours.

Outlook...Short stretches of Non-VFR conditions possible in
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Saturday as
well as early morning haze/fog/mist late in the week.

&&

.MARINE...
A light gradient will persist across the lake through the period
resulting in light winds and small waves. The best chance for
thunderstorms comes Wednesday night and Thursday as a weak back door
cold front drops onto the lake from the northeast while a
disturbance aloft moves through the region. Thunderstorm chances
will increase again towards the weekend as moisture and instability
increase.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Jamison/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...TK


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