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000
FXUS63 KDLH 241801
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
101 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND LOWERING FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE KBRD AREA HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VSBY FROM THE RAIN. THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER AT KBRD...BUT IT IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO INCLUDE THE FORECAST. THE KINL/KDLH/KHIB AREAS COULD ALSO SEE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...BUT NOT QUITE CONFIDENT YET. THE KBRD AND KINL
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.
I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS
KHIB AND KDLH...BUT IT MAY. EXPECT THE 5 TO 15 KNOT S TO SE WINDS
TODAY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND STRENGTHEN LATER TOMORROW MORNING.
THE WINDS AT KDLH MAY BE MORE SE TO E DUE TO THE WINDS COMING OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

SHORT TERM...A SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND NW WI AT
07Z. SOME CI WERE TRYING TO MOVE INTO THE FA FROM THE NW...BUT
WERE ERODING AS THEY ENCOUNTERED THE RIDGE. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 00Z SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
RETURN FLOW/WAA TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST SOME WAA
PCPN WILL APPROACH FROM THE W BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE FA WILL KEEP
THE RAIN AT BAY. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAIN FOR TODAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL FLATTEN A BIT
TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ATTEMPTS TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE. THIS
COMBINES WITH THE WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PUSH SOME SHOWERS INTO THE
SW QUAD OF THE FA THIS EVENING...THEN SPREADING TO THE BORDERLAND
AND AS FAR E AS THE TWIN PORTS AND THE ST. CROIX VALLEY IN NW WI.
HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO LACK OF DECENT
INSTABILITY...VIRTUALLY NO CAPE.

ON SATURDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS. ONE WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE IN THE MORNING AND MAY GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS. HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE. AGAIN NO MENTION OF THUNDER
WITH NO INSTABILITY. BY AFTERNOON...A SFC HIGH BUILDS WWD WITH DRIER
AIR ERODING ANY POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN AND HAVE NO MENTION.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SFC HIGH TO THE
EAST WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FURTHER TO THE WEST...A SERIES OF SHRT WVS WILL TRY
TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MID MS
RIVER VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT WITH CHC
POPS OVER THE SWRN COUNTIES LATE SUN AND EARLY MON...AND LOW CHC
POPS ADVANCING EWD MON/MON NIGHT AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
AND A SRN BRANCH OF THE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM DEVELOPS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. AS THE RIDGE
TRANSITIONS EWD...A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL USHER IN A
WARMER/MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS JUICY AIR MASS WILL INTERACT WITH A COUPLE PASSING FRONTAL
ZONES AND ALLOW FOR LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF T-STORMS
INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S...AND TREND UPWARD MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S. TEMPERATURES WED/THUR WILL CLIMB IN TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
HOWEVER...BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  57  42  59 /  10  20  10  10
INL  45  62  45  65 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  49  58  47  61 /  60  40  10  20
HYR  44  61  43  65 /  10  30  10  10
ASX  41  60  39  60 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI