Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 011005
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
405 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO UP TO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE DRIFTING EAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CONCENTRATE MOISTURE WEST
OF DEMING TODAY WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THE
RIDGE SHIFTS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE OVER THE ENTIRE
BORDERLAND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO
MEAN MINOR FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THEN COOL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE INCREASE
IN CLOUDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOOK AT WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO UP
TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME PERSISTS JUST
WEST OF THIS RIDGE. TPW SHOWS CURRENT PW`S AROUND .70 INCHES EAST
TO 1.2 INCHES FAR WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY ALTHOUGH
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...THE MOISTURE MAY
MAKE IT A BIT FURTHER EAST. WILL STILL KEEP THE EASTERN LOWLAND
OUT OF RAIN CHANCES TODAY. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS/DCAPES SHOW MUCH
LESS SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL TODAY. HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE
EAST...IF THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN LOWLANDS
WIND GUST POTENTIAL WOULD SUGGEST 60+MPH.

BY WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM THE BIG BEND REGION
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ALSO SPREAD
EAST OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
REMAINS OF EASTERN PACIFIC DEPRESSION INCLUDED IN THIS FLOW. PW`S
ON WEDNESDAY ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND ONE INCH AND THEN INCREASE
TO 1.2 INCHES TO 1.4 INCHES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WILL
INCREASE POPS ALL AREAS BUT GFS/ECMWF BOTH SUGGESTING HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

UPPER RIDGE BEGINS STRENGTHENING CIRCULATION OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL SHUT
THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF AND INTRODUCE A RELATIVELY DRIER EAST
FLOW...WITH DRY AIR FROM THE EAST FORCING THE MOISTURE PLUME BACK
OUT TOWARD ARIZONA.

*NOTE...OUR EL PASO ALL TIME RECORD OF CONSECUTIVE 90+ DEG HIGH
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MAY SNAP THAT STREAK DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/12Z-02/12Z.
MOSTLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. DVLPG AFT 17Z OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS AND WEST OF DEMING...WDLY SCT -TSRA BKN100CB WITH
ISOLATED 1-3SM +TSRA CIGS AOB 030. WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS
POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO UP TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE JUST WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THIS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY IN LIMITING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAIN ZONES AND WEST OF DEMING. AS THE RIDGE/MOISTURE MOVE EAST
WEDNESDAY ON INTO THE WEEKEND...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL ALSO
SPREAD OVER ALL FIRE ZONES. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE THE
BEST DAYS FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND FLOOD POTENTIAL...THOUGH
WEST OF DEMING WILL STILL BE THE FAVORED AREA. A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS RELATIVELY DRIER
EAST FLOW REPLACES THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 98  72  97  71 /   0   0  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA           97  67  96  66 /   0   0   0  20
LAS CRUCES              96  67  95  66 /   0   0  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              97  67  96  66 /  10  10  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              74  49  72  48 /  20  10  30  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   92  66  91  65 /  20  10  30  20
SILVER CITY             86  63  85  61 /  30  20  30  20
DEMING                  96  66  94  65 /  20  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               94  66  93  64 /  10  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      98  72  97  72 /   0   0  20  20
DELL CITY               99  67  98  66 /   0   0   0  20
FORT HANCOCK            99  71  98  70 /   0   0   0  20
LOMA LINDA              94  70  95  68 /   0   0   0  20
FABENS                  99  70  98  69 /   0   0  10  20
SANTA TERESA            97  70  96  69 /   0   0  20  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          96  68  95  68 /   0   0  20  20
JORNADA RANGE           96  67  95  66 /   0   0  20  20
HATCH                   96  65  95  65 /   0   0  20  20
COLUMBUS                96  67  95  67 /  20  10  20  20
OROGRANDE               97  69  96  69 /   0   0  20  20
MAYHILL                 82  56  80  55 /  20  10  30  30
MESCALERO               83  55  82  54 /  20  10  30  30
TIMBERON                82  58  81  57 /  20  10  20  30
WINSTON                 83  59  82  57 /  40  30  40  30
HILLSBORO               92  65  92  63 /  30  20  30  20
SPACEPORT               94  66  93  65 /  20  10  20  20
LAKE ROBERTS            86  55  84  54 /  40  30  30  30
HURLEY                  88  64  88  62 /  30  20  20  20
CLIFF                   93  56  92  60 /  20  20  20  20
MULE CREEK              91  55  91  57 /  20  20  20  20
FAYWOOD                 90  64  90  62 /  30  20  30  20
ANIMAS                  92  66  91  64 /  20  20  20  20
HACHITA                 94  65  93  65 /  20  20  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          90  64  89  62 /  30  20  30  20
CLOVERDALE              87  65  86  62 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

17 HEFNER


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