Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 272122
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
223 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold low pressure system aloft ovr the Northern Rockies will
continue to develop and move into the Central and Southern
Rockies later Friday night and Saturday. This strong upper system
with its associated surface cold front will bring more strong
winds to the Borderland Friday along with some showers and
thunderstorms later Friday and Saturday, especially to the
northern and eastern portions of our forecast area. Temperatures
will continue above normal Friday then drastically drop some 15 to
20 degrees Saturday following the strong cold frontal passage. In
addition, the Sacramento mountains may see some light snow above
7000 feet Saturday evening. The system will move out by early
Sunday morning will a gradual warm up Sunday continuing into next
week


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Getting ready for the climax after a week of successive upper air
disturbances brought high winds and blowing dust to the area.
As of 20z today SIM shows a developing upper low over central
Idaho which is forecast by all models to slowly drop southeastward
reaching the Four Corners by Friday night then into northern
Mexico Saturday morning. Thus surface winds should reach advisory
criteria again Friday. This system is cold enough (-26C H5) to
generate some showers from its internal moisture and we may also
see isolated convection with this cold pool aloft with capes of
around 300. Small hail is also possible with the precipitation
which will develop over the northern zones Friday afternoon, and
continue through much of Saturday spreading south southeastward
Southern and southwestern NMEX will probably not see any
precipitation with this system. A Pacific cold front moves
through Friday night and Saturday morning. Stronger cold advection
aloft on Saturday will provide some instability showers but in a
less moist environment. The core of the upper low will move to our
northeast of the Borderland followed by a back door cold front
into the area. Saturday`s high temps could fall 15 to 20 degrees
from Friday`s values. Winds will continue to be on the breezy to
windy side giving Saturday a blustery feel. The Sacramento
Mountains could see snow levels to around 7000 ft Saturday night
with 1 to possibly 3 inches of snow at the highest elevations
possible.

The upper low is presently forecast to exit via the Texas
Panhandle late Saturday night and early Sunday. Thus, skies will
clear on Sunday with a gradual warm up to begin as surface winds
back to the southwest. High temps should be back above normal by
Monday. Winds may still be in the breezy to windy category during
the afternoons on next Tuesday and Wednesday.



&&

.AVIATION...Valid 28/00Z-29/00Z... P6SM FEW-SCT250-BKN250 through
period. West winds of 25-30G45KTS through 06Z at all terminals.
06Z thru 16Z winds W-NW 15-20KTS. After 16Z west winds 25-30G45KTS
thru end of period. With increasing winds areas of 3-5SM in BLDU
are possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY UNTIL 9 PM MDT FOR ALL AREAS
EXCEPT THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS...

Strong west winds have returned to the Borderland and will stay
elevated through Saturday. Relative humidities today remain in the
10 to 15 percent range so previously issued Red Flag Warning for all
lowland areas and the Gila region will stand. RH`s in the Sacs
continue to be just above critical conditions. Tomorrow moisture
levls will increase area wide keeping just the lowlands in critical
conditions for hour or two during the afternoon. On Saturday winds
will continue, moisture levels will increase further but
temperatures will be much cooler due to the passage of a cold front.
Both Friday and Saturday showers and a possible thunderstorm could
occur mainly over the mountain zones. Some light snow is not out of
the question either, for higher mountain zones. Temperatures will
rebound back for early next week with daily breezy and dry
conditions.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 69  85  62  68 /   0   0   0  10
Sierra Blanca           61  88  58  67 /   0   0   0  20
Las Cruces              55  83  53  65 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo              56  84  53  62 /   0  10  20  20
Cloudcroft              41  59  33  39 /   0  30  40  30
Truth or Consequences   57  81  48  59 /   0  10  20  20
Silver City             49  71  43  56 /   0  10  20  10
Deming                  53  83  49  65 /   0   0   0  10
Lordsburg               52  81  49  65 /   0   0  10   0
West El Paso Metro      66  85  61  67 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City               56  87  58  70 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Hancock            62  90  61  72 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda              59  80  56  62 /   0   0   0  20
Fabens                  63  87  61  70 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Teresa            60  84  57  67 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ          62  84  57  64 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range           46  84  48  63 /   0   0   0  20
Hatch                   52  85  49  65 /   0   0   0  20
Columbus                60  85  55  68 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               61  86  56  65 /   0   0  10  20
Mayhill                 47  71  39  50 /   0  30  40  30
Mescalero               45  70  39  48 /   0  30  40  30
Timberon                44  69  40  49 /   0  30  40  30
Winston                 41  72  33  54 /   0  20  30  20
Hillsboro               48  76  44  58 /   0  10  20  20
Spaceport               44  83  45  61 /   0   0  10  20
Lake Roberts            36  74  35  56 /   0  30  30  20
Hurley                  46  73  43  59 /   0  10  10  10
Cliff                   34  77  38  63 /   0  20  20  20
Mule Creek              34  74  39  60 /   0  20  20  20
Faywood                 49  75  44  59 /   0  10  10  10
Animas                  52  83  49  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 51  83  48  66 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          52  83  50  66 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              50  75  48  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>112.

     Wind Advisory until 3 AM MDT Friday morning for NMZ413.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ401>412-414>417.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory until 3 AM MDT Friday for TXZ419.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for TXZ418-420>424.

NM...Blowing Dust Advisory until 7 PM MDT Friday evening for NMZ403>405-
     407-411>413-417.

     Wind Advisory until 9 AM MDT Saturday for NMZ413.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday evening for NMZ401>412-414>417.

TX...Blowing Dust Advisory until 1 PM MDT Friday evening for TXZ418>424.

     Wind Advisory until 9 AM MDT Friday for TXZ419.

     Wind Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday evening for TXZ418-420>424.

&&

$$

20/28 Novlan / Pazos



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