Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 251006
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
406 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures will continue today with many lowland
locations climbing into the lower-80s. A relatively weak upper
level storm system and Pacific cold front will move through the
area overnight, dropping temperatures closer to normal for Sunday.
Continued active pattern will bring breezy afternoons for the next
several days. A stronger system will bring the risk of light
mountain precip Tuesday and Wednesday, with windy conditions in
the lowlands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper-level ridge axis shifting east of the area will help keep
warm and dry conditions in place today while a trough currently
moving into California moves into AZ/UT by this afternoon. Weak
lee troughing will create slightly breezy SW winds by the
afternoon, with a few gusts above 25 knots in far SW New Mexico.
The trough will pass through most of NM Saturday night, with the
strongest vort max remaining over the northern part of the state.
This will keep the impacts at a minimum, other than a 4-8 degree
temperature drop behind the system for Sunday.

This trough will help deepen a lee surface low over the Texas
Panhandle, increasing the pressure gradient across out area, and
bringing breezy west winds back to the area Sunday afternoon,
with a few gusts in the 35-45 mph range.

A low-amplitude ridge will keep things warm and dry Monday, but
the next in a series of upper troughs will again bring breezy
conditions to SW NM by Monday afternoon, and over a wider area
Tuesday morning. A few rain and snow showers will be possible over
the Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains Tuesday morning, mainly
above 7,000 feet and with little to no accumulation.

Next system looks to affect the area in the Fri-Sat timeframe, but
confidence remains low for any particular solution given ensemble
spread in timing and path of the trough or upper low.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail today with just some increasing high
cirrus from the west during the afternoon. Light and variable
winds this morning will become S to SW by afternoon, with a few
gusts above 25 knots possible during peak mixing. The stronger
winds will be favored in SW New Mexico. It will likely remain
somewhat breezy (gusts 25-30 knots) east of area mountain ranges
overnight, including ELP as an upper level trough and weak Pacific
cold front move through the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Active pattern will continue this week, with breezy conditions
each afternoon resulting in near-critical conditions for brief
periods. Weak cold front moving in from the west overnight tonight
will bring temperatures down to just a couple degrees above normal
for Sunday, and this will boost RH values over the higher terrain.
Parts of West Texas could see Red Flag conditions Sunday
afternoon. A stronger upper level storm system looks to affect the
area Tuesday into Wednesday, with windy conditions in the
lowlands, and light mountain precip for the Gila and Sacramentos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 82  54  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           79  50  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              78  45  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              75  49  75  45 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              54  30  51  32 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   76  47  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             69  38  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  78  43  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               77  39  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      81  54  76  52 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               80  45  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            85  51  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              74  50  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  84  51  78  50 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            80  49  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          77  52  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           76  42  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   78  45  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                82  48  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               78  50  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 67  38  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               65  36  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                63  35  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 70  32  67  34 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               73  41  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               74  44  74  44 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            68  27  64  29 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  71  36  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   75  32  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              70  37  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 72  41  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  79  41  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 79  40  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          80  43  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              72  40  70  42 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman



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