Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 302123
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
323 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND STALL OVER
THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT WILL HELP FOCUS AND
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS THE GROUND BECOMES SATURATED FROM RAIN...EXCESSIVE
RUNOFF COULD RESULT IN FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES AND LOW LYING
AREAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS CLOUDY
SKIES AND RAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES IN CHECK. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WHICH IS CENTERED CLOSE TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO.
HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS UNDER THE HIGH REMAINS VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
VARYING BETWEEN 140 AND 160 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE MORE SCATTERED
AS MESOSCALE STABILIZATION FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF HEAVY
RAINS HAS PARTLY INHIBITED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN STALLS OUT ACROSS
THE REGION. CONVERGENCE AND LIFTING ALONG THE FRONT WILL HELP
TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. WITH ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE A LOT OF THE
STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. EVEN AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEAKENS LATER IN THE WEEKEND...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA TO HELP SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORM AND
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

PORTIONS OF OTERO AND SIERRA COUNTIES HAVE ALREADY HAD
SIGNIFICANT RAINS THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MOIST SOIL
CONDITIONS IN PLACE. AS A RESULT EXCESSIVE RAIN RUNOFF IS POSSIBLE
FROM FUTURE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MUCH
OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND THE GILA REGION. FOR NOW...THE LAS
CRUCES AND EL PASO METRO AREAS ARE NOT PART OF THE FLOOD
WATCH...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH FURTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS.
THE WATCH ALSO MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS MOIST AND ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. POSSIBLE FACTORS THAT MIGHT
WORK AGAINST HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WOULD BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER WORKING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
HOWEVER THAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AREA WIDE.

A REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH ALOFT TO A LOCATION
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...WILL HELP DIMINISH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS AN EAST FLOW BRINGS IN DRIER AIR AND THE
MOISTURE SHIFTS MORE TO THE WEST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF DEMING ON SUNDAY BUT
THE EAST SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH LESS RAIN ACTIVITY EXPECTED.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND AS
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IS PUSHED OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO SURFACE HEATING
AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE A LOT LOWER AND
MORE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 31/00Z - 01/00Z...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT P6SM FEW-SCT060-100 SCT-BKN100-140 SCT-BKN250. HOWEVER AREAS
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF 1-2 SM TSRA WITH CIGS
BKN040-060. WIND G50KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STORMS. EXPECT
BACKDOOR FROPA INTO THE AREA FROM THE ENE IN THE 09Z-12Z TIME FRAME
WSHFT TO 040-120 10G20KT AND G 25KT W SLOPES/PASSES. SCT-BKN040-060
LCL 030OVC 3SM +TSRA. CB TOPS TO 450.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS IN
PLACE TODAY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS... MORE FREQUENT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. LATER TONIGHT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE EAST BRINGING MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE BORDERLAND.
THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...AN
UNSTABLE AIR MASS...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PROVIDE THE
POTENTIAL IN ALL AREAS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BY LATER MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER
FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND DRIER.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED. MEAN RH 25%-35% LOWLANDS
AND 45% TO 55% SACRAMENTOS WEDNESDAY INCREASING SOME 10% AREA WIDE
ON THURSDAY AND ANOTHER 10% INCREASE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 77  92  71  89  71 /  30  60  60  60  60
SIERRA BLANCA           72  85  71  85  71 /  30  50  50  40  50
LAS CRUCES              71  91  68  88  68 /  30  60  60  60  60
ALAMOGORDO              70  88  69  89  69 /  40  70  70  60  60
CLOUDCROFT              48  66  47  66  47 /  50  80  70  80  60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  88  67  87  67 /  30  60  60  60  60
SILVER CITY             62  85  61  81  58 /  30  70  60  60  50
DEMING                  71  92  68  87  68 /  30  60  60  60  60
LORDSBURG               68  92  66  87  67 /  20  40  40  50  50
WEST EL PASO METRO      76  92  72  90  72 /  30  60  60  60  60
DELL CITY               68  88  67  88  66 /  40  60  50  50  60
FORT HANCOCK            72  90  70  90  72 /  30  50  50  60  60
LOMA LINDA              64  89  63  82  64 /  30  60  60  60  60
FABENS                  74  92  71  90  72 /  30  60  60  60  60
SANTA TERESA            73  91  70  89  70 /  30  60  60  60  60
WHITE SANDS HQ          73  90  70  87  70 /  30  60  60  60  60
JORNADA RANGE           67  89  66  87  64 /  30  60  60  60  60
HATCH                   69  90  67  87  66 /  30  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS                71  92  68  88  68 /  20  60  60  60  60
OROGRANDE               71  90  68  88  68 /  30  60  60  60  60
MAYHILL                 57  74  53  73  52 /  60  80  70  80  60
MESCALERO               54  72  54  74  51 /  50  80  70  80  60
TIMBERON                53  74  50  73  50 /  50  80  70  70  60
WINSTON                 63  83  58  81  57 /  40  80  60  80  60
HILLSBORO               66  89  64  81  65 /  40  60  60  60  60
SPACEPORT               66  87  67  88  67 /  30  60  60  60  60
LAKE ROBERTS            56  86  52  80  52 /  40  70  60  70  60
HURLEY                  63  88  61  83  58 /  20  60  60  60  60
CLIFF                   60  88  59  83  57 /  20  50  60  60  50
MULE CREEK              57  88  55  83  55 /  20  40  50  60  50
FAYWOOD                 64  89  61  83  62 /  20  60  60  60  60
ANIMAS                  72  91  69  90  69 /  20  40  40  50  50
HACHITA                 69  90  66  90  66 /  20  50  50  60  50
ANTELOPE WELLS          71  88  69  89  69 /  20  40  40  50  50
CLOVERDALE              64  88  59  81  64 /  20  40  50  50  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NMZ402-403-408>410-412>417.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04/20 LUNDEEN/NOVLAN




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