Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 021003
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
403 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS WEEK. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO FLOW INTO THE REGION FOR A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EAST TO WEST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO SOUTHERN BORDER REGION THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE AND WARMING SUPPORTING SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MOST
AREAS. SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE RATHER MORE COMPLEX WITH HEAT LOW
OVER WESTERN ARIZONA...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WEAK
LEE TROUGH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WHICH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. RESULTANT FLOW WILL SUSTAIN TRANSPORT
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND GULF OF MEXICO
ALLOWING FOR SURFACE DEWPOINTS ABOVE 50 F AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES EAST TO WEST THROUGH MONDAY. COMBINATION
OF HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL DESTABILIZE AIR MASS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH CAPES RISING AROUND 500 TO
1000 J/KG MOST AREAS. WHILE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE FEEBLE
LOW LEVEL SURFACE HEATING...AREAS OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH SUBSEQUENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
INDUCING ACTIVITY IN THE EVENING AND EVEN EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SLOW STORM MOVEMENT INDICATES SEVERAL STORMS MAY DROP HEAVY
RAINFALLS WHILE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 50 F SUGGEST RISK OF
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS.

BY TUESDAY UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO NEAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH A MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING WARM DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR AT MID
LEVELS INTO THE CWA. CONSEQUENTLY PRECIPITABLE WATER FALLS BELOW
AN INCH AND AIR MASS BECOMES MORE STABLE DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THUS EXPECT HOT DRIER WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN
MEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ALMOST ALL
CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER OR AROUND THE MOUNTAINS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UPPER HIGH CENTER MIGRATES SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH CIRCULATION OVER TEXAS PANHANDLE BY EARLY SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A GREATER SOUTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT WITH ATTENDANT TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE. PRECIPITABLE
WATER SHOULD THEREFORE RISE ABOVE AN INCH AGAIN WITH AIR MASS
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE. IN ADDITION MODELS HINT AT A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA FRIDAY. THESE FACTORS
WILL CAUSE SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z-03/12Z.
ISOLATED AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM 20Z TO 06Z. SEVERAL STORMS MAY
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 KT. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN 060-120 AND WIND SPEEDS
MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 KT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM AREAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES TO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS WEEK. HOWEVER SUFFICIENT
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO FLOW INTO THE REGION FOR A FEW
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.
DRIER MORE STABLE AIR WILL ENTER THE REGION RESULTING IN A
DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT FOR GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 50 MPH
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 98  76  97  74 /  10  20  20  20
SIERRA BLANCA           96  72  95  70 /  20  20  30  30
LAS CRUCES              96  69  94  68 /  20  20  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              97  69  95  70 /  20  20  20  20
CLOUDCROFT              74  55  73  56 /  40  40  40  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   94  69  92  69 /  20  40  20  20
SILVER CITY             88  63  85  63 /  40  40  30  20
DEMING                  96  70  94  69 /  20  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               95  68  93  68 /  30  20  20  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      98  74  98  73 /  10  20  20  30
DELL CITY               98  72  97  71 /  30  20  30  30
FORT HANCOCK            99  73  98  71 /  20  20  20  30
LOMA LINDA              95  71  92  70 /  20  20  20  20
FABENS                  99  73  98  71 /  10  20  20  30
SANTA TERESA            97  72  96  71 /  10  20  20  30
WHITE SANDS HQ          97  71  94  71 /  10  20  20  30
JORNADA RANGE           96  68  94  68 /  20  20  20  30
HATCH                   97  68  95  68 /  20  20  20  20
COLUMBUS                96  71  93  69 /  20  20  20  20
OROGRANDE               97  72  96  71 /  10  20  20  20
MAYHILL                 83  59  82  60 /  40  40  40  40
MESCALERO               84  58  82  58 /  40  40  40  30
TIMBERON                83  60  82  60 /  40  40  40  40
WINSTON                 84  60  83  60 /  50  50  40  20
HILLSBORO               94  65  91  65 /  40  40  30  20
SPACEPORT               95  69  93  68 /  20  20  20  30
LAKE ROBERTS            87  58  85  58 /  50  50  40  20
HURLEY                  91  64  88  64 /  40  20  20  20
CLIFF                   93  64  91  65 /  40  40  30  20
MULE CREEK              93  61  90  62 /  40  30  30  20
FAYWOOD                 92  65  89  65 /  40  20  20  20
ANIMAS                  94  68  92  68 /  40  30  30  20
HACHITA                 94  69  93  68 /  30  20  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          92  66  89  66 /  40  30  30  30
CLOVERDALE              90  65  87  65 /  40  30  40  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.