Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 242054
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
254 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL BRING GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE
BORDERLAND INTO MIDWEEK. A MINOR EXCEPTION WILL BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA WHICH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
HIGH MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
THIRD OF OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD
AGAIN ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE WARMING UP TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...REACHING THE LOW TO MILD 90S. ANOTHER
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MOST ACTIVITY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR LATE MAY CONTINUES UNUSUAL YET INTERESTING.
A LARGE SCALE UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH YET ANOTHER UPPER WAVE ROTATING AROUND INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA BY 25/00Z. A SURFACE LEE CYCLONE EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO DOW TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS COMBINATION WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A DEEP MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY  DRY AIR
FOR MOST AREAS DURING THIS TIME. AS THE ARIZONA UPPER WAVE NOW
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT... IT SHOULD PROVIDE MARGINAL TO
MINIMAL LIFT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST ZONES TONIGHT AND FAR NORTHERN
AREAS ON MONDAY WHERE AIR MASS AGAIN WILL REMAIN JUST MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA WILL
HAVE DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
WILL BE OVER THE BORDERLAND LATER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY  ALSO
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY INTO
THE LOW TO MID 90S.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA AND
INTO NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
WINDS BACKING BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY AND ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BASICALLY EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY PRECIPITABLE WATER IS FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM .5 TO AN 1 INCH. THUS THE AIR MASS WILL DESTABILIZE
PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AGAIN...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN ZONES WITH MOSTLY WARM
DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.

AND IN THE LONGER RANGE...JUST TO MAKE LIFE INTERESTING...GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ENTERS FROM THE EAST AND GENERATES
MORE CONVECTION IN THE MAY 30 / JUNE 1 TIME FRAME. ALSO ATTM BOTH
THE GFS AND EURO HINT OF A POSSIBLE TROPICAL-LIKE DEPRESSION MOVING
NORTH FROM THE SUB TROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE INTO THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA AREA TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THE ISSUE. THUS WE
BEGAN THIS DISCUSSION AND WILL END THIS DISCUSSION WITH UNUSUAL
AND INTERESTING WEATHER.




&&

.AVIATION...VALID 25/00Z-26/00Z...
WK UP LOW APPCHG FROM AZ WILL BRING FEW-SCT090-120 FEW130-150
SCT-BKN300-330 MOST AREAS...WITH ISOLD LOWLAND SHRA AND
-TSRAGS/CIGS 080-090/WND VRB25G50KTS W OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH 06Z. ISOLD MOUNTAIN -TSRAGS/CIGS 050-060/WND
VRB15G35KT/VIS 3-5SM IN LCL PRECIP TIL 04Z. FEW 050-120 FEW130-150
ALL AREAS THEREAFTER TIL 18Z. AFT 18Z...ISOLD MOUNTAIN -TSRA/CIGS
050-060/WND VRB15G35KT/ LCL VIS 2-3 SM IN PCPN THROUGH ERLY MON
EVENING. WINDS 220-240/10-25 KTS THROUGH 04Z...WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING 270-290/05-10KTS THROUGH 20Z MONDAY. WINDS
250-260/10-20KTS AFT 20Z. TURBC LGT OCNL MDT SFC-120.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS...VIRGA SHAFTS AND
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD BUILD-UPS TODAY...OVERNIGHT...MONDAY AND AGAIN
LATER NEXT WEEK...

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THIS EVENING WEST AND NORTHERN MTNS...AHEAD OF A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM ARIZONA.  BREEZY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS EVENING...BEFORE SHIFTING
WEST-NORTHWEST BY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.  THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS OVERNIGHT...AND CARRY A WEAK PACIFIC COOL FRONT THROUGH.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVES OVER NRN NM LATER MONDAY/MONDAY
EVENING...RETURNING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED MAINLY MOUNTAIN STORMS OVER
THE GILA REGION SACRAMENTO AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS AT THAT TIME.

MORE PERSISTENT WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...WITH A RETURN TO THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE
WED AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS FROM DRYLINE APPROACH. AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONCURRENTLY MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THEN EAST
INTO THE PLAINS...FEATURE SHOULD CARRY A STRONG ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR
COOL FRONT INTO OUR AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL INCREASE OUR
STORM CHANCES AT THAT TIME AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AIDED BY RETURN
S-SELY FLOW HELPING TO BRING BACK DRYLINE/ASSOCIATED GULF MOISTURE.

MIN RH THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TEENS LOWLANDS...TO
20S-LOWER 30S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. VALUES SHOULD FALL A FEW PERCENT
FURTHER WEDNESDAY MOST AREAS...EXCEPT EASTERN OTERO/HUDSPETH COUNTIES
WHERE VALUES COULD CLIMB 5-10 PERCENT IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING
DRYLINE. HIGHER VALUES SHOULD SPREAD WESTWARD TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THURS AND FRIDAY...BEFORE ENDING UP NEAR THE DIVIDE BY
SUNDAY. MIXING HEIGHTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 8000 FT OVER
THE SACS...TO JUST OVER 14000 FT NEAR THE AZ BORDER. VALUES FALL
500-2500 FT MONDAY...THEN ANOTHER 500-1000 FT TUESDAY.  MIXING
HEIGHTS 4-5 ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...FALLING TO 4-3
TUESDAY...THEN 5-6 WEDNESDAY AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVED INTO THE
REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 59  85  59  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           54  83  53  85  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              50  82  51  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              53  82  54  85  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              40  60  42  64  46 /  20  10  10   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   51  81  53  84  56 /  10  10   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             46  73  45  77  49 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEMING                  49  82  48  86  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               51  81  48  86  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  85  59  88  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               53  84  53  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            56  87  55  89  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              53  78  54  81  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  55  85  54  88  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            55  83  54  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          56  82  57  85  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           49  82  50  85  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   50  83  50  86  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                54  81  53  85  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               55  81  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 46  69  47  71  51 /  20  10  10   0   0
MESCALERO               44  69  45  72  49 /  20  20  10   0   0
TIMBERON                45  68  46  71  50 /  10  10  10   0   0
WINSTON                 43  72  44  76  48 /  20  20  10   0   0
HILLSBORO               47  80  48  84  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               48  82  49  86  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            44  72  43  77  47 /  20  20  10   0   0
HURLEY                  46  75  44  80  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   46  79  45  84  49 /  20  10   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              41  77  39  81  44 /  20  10   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 48  76  47  80  51 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  51  82  48  86  53 /  10   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 50  82  48  87  52 /  10   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          49  82  46  87  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              49  77  46  82  51 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20/22 NOVLAN / TRIOLI




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