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FXUS64 KEPZ 182134
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
334 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BY MORNING.
AS THE ODILE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA RAIN CHANCES WILL DROP BACK TO
A MORE NORMAL TYPE OF COVERAGE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. RAIN AMOUNTS FROM THE SHOWERS WILL
BE LIGHTER AND SHORTER IN DURATION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK
UP TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OUR ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM ODILE TRACK EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. ABUNDANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
IN THE PAST 3 DAYS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH STARTING FROM THE WEST AND PROGRESSING
TO THE EAST BY MORNING.

THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE HAVE A HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE GROUND SATURATED MUCH OF
THE RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RUNOFF. FLOODING OF
ARROYOS...SMALL STREAMS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. PONDING OF WATER IN POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING
AREAS AND ROADWAYS WILL ALSO OCCUR. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS WITH EASTERN PORTIONS OF OTERO COUNTY...INCLUDING THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS STAYING IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY...ODILE WILL HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...TAKING
THE HEAVY RAINFALL WITH IT. CONSIDERABLE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN IN THE AREA THAT COULD FUEL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH
HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS.  WITH CLOUD COVER BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED TEMPERATURES WILL RISE BACK UP TO NEAR NORMALS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS A RESULT OF THE
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH DAY TIME HEATING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY THAT COULD POSSIBLY
ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF EL PASO.

FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT WILL TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL ALLOW A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE
THAT WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY FLUSH MOISTURE OUT OF THE AREA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING UNTIL MOISTURE BECOMES MORE LIMITED LATER NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 19/00Z - 20/00Z...
PERIOD WILL START OUT WITH REMNANTS OF ODILE MOVING THROUGH REGION.
EXPECT SCT-BKN015-025 BKN040-050 THRU AT LEAST 06Z WITH ISOLD TO SCT
1-3SM +TSRA BKN010. AFT 06Z AREAS EAST OF RIO GRANDE COULD CONTINUE
TO SEE SCT -SHRA BKN015-025 OTHERWISE SCT025 SCT-BKN040-050 BKN100.
AFT 18Z BKN040-050 WITH SCT 3SM TSRA BKN030 ALL TERMINALS. N TO NE
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE W TO NW UNDER
12KTS BY 06Z AND CONTINUE THRU 20/00Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR UPCOMING WEEK WITH
HIGH DEW POINTS AND ALMOST DAILY CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL EXIT THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING CONTINUING TO BE POSSIBLE. EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE OF LITTLE
CONCERN BUT MAY HAVE SOME WESTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES BREEZY WINDS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL STARTING
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 68  84  67  87  68 /  70  20  20  10  20
SIERRA BLANCA           62  79  63  81  63 /  70  30  30  20  20
LAS CRUCES              64  82  64  84  65 /  70  20  20  20  20
ALAMOGORDO              64  83  63  87  64 /  80  50  30  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              49  63  47  67  47 / 100  60  40  40  30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  82  64  84  64 /  70  30  20  10  20
SILVER CITY             59  78  60  80  61 /  70  40  30  30  30
DEMING                  62  83  62  85  64 /  70  20  20  20  20
LORDSBURG               62  83  63  86  64 /  60  20  20  30  20
WEST EL PASO METRO      67  83  67  86  69 /  70  20  20  10  20
DELL CITY               63  84  63  87  64 /  80  40  30  10  20
FORT HANCOCK            66  85  67  89  68 /  70  30  20  20  20
LOMA LINDA              63  77  64  79  64 /  80  20  20  10  20
FABENS                  66  85  65  89  65 /  70  30  20  10  20
SANTA TERESA            66  82  65  85  66 /  70  20  20  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          64  81  64  82  65 /  70  20  20  10  20
JORNADA RANGE           61  81  61  84  61 /  70  30  20  20  20
HATCH                   61  80  62  83  62 /  70  30  20  10  20
COLUMBUS                64  83  63  84  64 /  70  20  20  10  20
OROGRANDE               65  83  65  84  66 /  80  30  20  10  20
MAYHILL                 55  70  54  74  53 / 100  60  50  30  30
MESCALERO               55  72  55  75  54 / 100  60  40  30  30
TIMBERON                54  70  53  73  52 / 100  60  40  30  30
WINSTON                 56  73  56  75  55 /  80  40  30  30  30
HILLSBORO               60  77  60  79  60 /  70  40  20  10  30
SPACEPORT               61  80  62  83  62 /  80  30  20  10  20
LAKE ROBERTS            57  79  56  81  55 /  70  40  30  30  30
HURLEY                  61  80  61  82  61 /  70  30  30  30  30
CLIFF                   56  80  56  83  57 /  70  30  20  30  30
MULE CREEK              52  79  52  81  52 /  70  30  30  30  30
FAYWOOD                 61  79  61  81  61 /  70  30  30  20  30
ANIMAS                  63  83  63  85  64 /  60  20  30  30  30
HACHITA                 61  84  61  86  62 /  60  20  20  20  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          60  82  61  86  61 /  60  30  20  30  30
CLOVERDALE              60  80  60  83  59 /  60  30  30  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR NMZ401>413.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NMZ414>417.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

04/26 LUNDEEN/GRZYWACZ





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