Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 280951
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
351 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry air mass will be in place over the Borderland the next 3
days, which will allow afternoon temperatures to return to the
century mark or slightly above in most of the lowlands. Some
moisture will attempt to move back in by Saturday but only in
modest amounts. This will bring isolated thunderstorms to the
area, especially over the mountains during the weekend and into
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure aloft is elongated along an east-west axis that
lies to the south, while a thermal trough is developing to the
northeast. This will result in a deep layer of westerly flow and
thus a dry air mass over the area through Friday. Temperatures
will return to a little above normal, and no storms are expected
during this period.

An upper trough passing by to the north will raise surface
pressures in its wake down the plains by Saturday which may push a
little low level moisture our way from the east. Also over the
weekend the upper high will shift northward and eastward. This
will eventually allow some mid level moisture to advect in from
the south. Therefore isolated storms will return to the forecast
Saturday afternoon through the remainder of the forecast period
(middle of next week). It doesn`t look like widespread activity at
this time. Meanwhile afternoon temperatures will top out at or
slightly above the century mark in most of the lower elevations
for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 28/12Z-29/12Z...SKC-FEW120. VFR through the
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air has moved in from the west which will put an end to the
showers and thunderstorms for at least a few days. Temperatures
will be warming back to around 100 degrees for many lowland
locations through early next week. Relative humidities will be
falling back into the upper single digits to lower teens. There
will be a little surge in moisture going into the weekend and
early next week with isolated thunderstorms returning. Winds will
be occasionally breezy the next couple of days and again early
next week which will bring about near critical conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                100  75 101  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           98  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              98  69  99  69 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              98  67  98  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              79  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   98  69  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             92  63  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  99  66  99  67 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               98  67  98  65 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      98  75 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City              101  68 102  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock           100  73 102  73 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              96  72  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                 100  74 101  73 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            99  71 100  71 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          98  72  99  72 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           98  65  99  66 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                  100  67 100  67 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus               100  70 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               99  71  99  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 88  57  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               88  54  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                87  56  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 91  58  92  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               95  64  95  64 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               98  63 100  64 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            90  53  91  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  94  62  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   97  60  97  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              94  59  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 94  63  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  99  67  99  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 99  66  98  66 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          97  68  97  67 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              94  65  93  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

01 Fausett


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