Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 271009
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
409 AM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions with seasonal weather and mostly clear skies will
occur today through the Memorial Day weekend. Slightly below
normal temperatures will occur this afternoon with near normal
temperatures expected the rest of the period. Lighter westerly
winds will occur today, then become more southerly by Saturday.
There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms later in the week
as moisture begins to move back into the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A westerly flow filling in behind a departing low pressure system
will bring dry conditions and lighter west winds with day time
temperatures 4 to 6 degrees below normal this afternoon. The
cooler temperatures will be short lived as southwest flow will
return to the region in response to a developing trough on the
west coast. The shift will allow winds to become more southerly
and result in temperatures returning to near normal which means
upper 80s to lower 90s across the lowlands for the Memorial Day
holiday period.

Active weather is not anticipated through the weekend, but one
model did project a weak surge of moisture pushing into eastern
fringes of Otero and Hudspeth counties on Sunday that could lead
to isolated thunderstorm development. Other models trend toward
keeping moisture further east with rain chances remaining slim to
none.

The weak west coast trough will move over the local area on
Tuesday and Wednesday. While limited in moisture the system will
increase instability over the area with steeper lapse rates that
may result in isolated mainly mountain based thunderstorms
developing in the afternoon both days. Wednesday may be the more
active day, aided by a backdoor cold front pushing into the area
from the east.

This frontal boundary may still be in place next Thursday and
Friday and could serve as a focusing mechanism for isolated shower
and thunderstorm development late next week. Uncertainty remains
high as models have been inconsistent run to run on the potential
for precip for late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z-28/12Z...
VFR conditions expected through the valid period. Sky conditions
generally SKC to SCT100. Winds will be W to NW at 10 to 15
knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A west to northwest flow will occur over the area behind a
departing low pressure system. Temperatures will be a few degrees
below normal with continued low humidity values. Winds will be
much lower in speed through the day. Southwest flow will return to
the area on Saturday and persist through Monday. Dry conditions
are expected to continue through the weekend except for a
possible modest intrusion of moisture into eastern portions of the
Sacramento mountains which could lead to isolated showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday. Wind speeds will remain on light side
through Monday. A weak upper level system will move over the
region Tuesday and Wednesday with a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 85  59  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           83  56  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              82  51  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              83  54  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              60  42  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   81  54  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             75  46  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  81  48  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               81  49  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      84  58  89  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               85  50  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            86  55  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              78  55  83  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  85  55  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            83  54  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          83  59  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           82  49  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   85  49  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                83  52  88  56 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               82  55  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 70  45  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               70  43  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                68  41  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 74  40  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               80  50  84  51 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               82  51  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            77  36  83  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  77  44  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   80  42  86  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              78  38  83  40 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 79  46  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  82  49  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 83  49  89  51 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          82  49  88  51 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              77  47  81  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/04/04



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