Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 182113
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
313 PM MDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture and rain chances are returning to our forecast. By late
on Saturday, we will have abundant moisture in place and that will
lead to possible heavy rains and flash flooding for Saturday
night through Monday. Our temperature this week will be 5 to 7
degrees below average. For the rest of next week we will see less
risk for flash flooding, but our rain chances will continue.
Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees below average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
After a short break in our monsoon flow, it looks like our monsoon
moisture will return with a vengeance starting on Saturday.
Currently an area of upper level high pressure to our east and a
developing area of upper level low pressure to our west will help
sweep abundant tropical moisture to our south into west Texas and
southern New Mexico. The pleasant dew point temperatures that we
saw in the 40`s a couple of days ago, have already been replaced
with dew points in 50`s and low 60`s. Precipitable water values (a
measure of the moisture in the air) have already climbed back to
1 inch and by Saturday evening we will see values approaching 1.5
inches. Those very high moisture values will continue through
Sunday. One of two things could happen, either all the moisture
will give us lots of clouds, hold down the temperatures and give
us only some light rain and drizzle or thunderstorms could develop
and tap into all the moisture and give us some very heavy rain.
The current runs of all the models indicate that a weak upper
level low will track across parts of the area early on Sunday.
That upper level low will be what we need to help get those
thunderstorms going, so I have issued a flash flood watch through
Monday for the potential of heavy rain and flash flooding.
Rainfall totals through Monday of 1 to 2 inches will be possible
with isolated 3 to 4 inches also possible. Temperatures this
weekend will run at least 5 degrees below average and if the GFS
is to be believed we could be as much as 10 degrees below
average.

For the rest of next week we will continue to see the southeast
flow moving in more moisture, so our rain threat will continue
through the end of next week. As a matter of fact, both the GFS
and ECMWF bring an inverted trough into our region by the end of
next week, which could again increase our flash flood risk.
Temperatures after Monday will be warmer, but still run a few
degrees below average.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 19/00Z-20/00Z...
Increasing moisture across the region over the next day. Expect
FEW-SCT080-100 SCT-BKN200-250 with isolated 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-060
mainly east of a KELP-KALM line through 12Z.  After 12Z
SCT-BKN050-070 BKN150-200 with scattered 1-3SM TSRA BKN020-040
across entire area.  Winds generally AOB 12KTS out of the S to SE
except near thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture will be rapidly returning across the region over the
next 24 to 36 hours as upper trough off the CA coast and upper
high over east TX help to draw moisture up from the south.
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon
with increasing coverage through the night and Sunday.
The main threat will be locally heavy rain and flooding.
Moisture will get trapped under a weak high going into the
middle of next week which will keep the threat for heavy rain
going.  Temperatures will be falling back to near or slightly
below normal and winds will remain on the light side.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 72  90  69  83 /  30  40  70  60
Sierra Blanca           68  88  66  84 /  30  30  50  50
Las Cruces              68  88  65  80 /  30  40  60  60
Alamogordo              67  89  67  80 /  30  30  70  60
Cloudcroft              53  68  50  62 /  30  50  70  60
Truth or Consequences   68  90  66  81 /  20  20  40  50
Silver City             61  84  59  76 /  20  30  50  60
Deming                  67  88  64  81 /  20  40  40  60
Lordsburg               67  89  65  82 /  10  30  30  50
West El Paso Metro      71  89  68  82 /  30  40  70  60
Dell City               70  91  70  86 /  30  30  50  50
Fort Hancock            72  92  70  86 /  30  40  50  50
Loma Linda              66  84  63  78 /  30  40  60  60
Fabens                  71  90  68  84 /  30  40  60  60
Santa Teresa            70  88  67  82 /  30  40  70  60
White Sands HQ          69  88  67  80 /  30  40  70  60
Jornada Range           68  89  66  80 /  30  30  60  60
Hatch                   68  90  66  82 /  20  30  50  60
Columbus                69  88  65  82 /  20  40  40  60
Orogrande               70  89  67  81 /  30  40  70  60
Mayhill                 57  77  57  70 /  30  50  60  60
Mescalero               57  78  57  69 /  30  50  70  60
Timberon                57  76  56  69 /  30  50  60  60
Winston                 58  83  57  75 /  20  20  50  60
Hillsboro               64  87  61  78 /  20  30  50  60
Spaceport               68  89  65  81 /  20  20  50  60
Lake Roberts            57  83  55  74 /  20  30  50  60
Hurley                  61  85  59  76 /  20  40  50  60
Cliff                   62  90  60  82 /   0  30  30  60
Mule Creek              63  87  62  81 /   0  20  30  60
Faywood                 63  86  60  77 /  20  40  50  60
Animas                  66  88  64  81 /  20  40  30  50
Hachita                 66  87  63  81 /  20  40  40  60
Antelope Wells          65  86  62  80 /  20  40  30  50
Cloverdale              63  82  61  76 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday
     night for NMZ401>417.

TX...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday
     night for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

Brice/Grzywacz



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