Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 020917
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
317 AM MDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH CHILLY CANADIAN AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
UP TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
FOLLOWED BY OCCASIONALLY BREEZY AND COOLER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH COOL CANADIAN AIR
INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS TODAY. THUS TODAYS HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SLOW MOVING HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE INDUCED
BY BROAD TROUGHING WEST OF THE DIVIDE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL CAUSE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN LOW LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION UNDER SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 OVER PORTIONS
OF THE LOWLANDS ON THURSDAY. DESPITE THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES
SO CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT CHANCES OF
HIGH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION.

MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND IN AGREEMENT IN MOVING AN
UNUSUALLY DEEP FOR MAY UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO ARIZONA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SYSTEM
SUBSEQUENTLY DRIFTING TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK. APPROACH OF SYSTEM WILL INITIALLY STRENGTHEN GRADIENTS WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER LATEST GFS...ECMWF
AND SUPERBLEND ARE TRENDING TO SLOWLY REDUCE WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS NOW EXPECTED TO TO BREEZY TO
MARGINALLY WINDY SATURDAY AND BREEZY AT BEST ON SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA CAUSING WEEKEND
TEMPERATURES TO FALL AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FINALLY
DEEP WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT AND A LACK OF MOISTURE INFLOW
INDICATE LITTLE OR NO PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 02/12Z-03/12Z.
AREAS OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FROM LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG EAST OF AN ELP-ALM LINE THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH NO CEILINGS BELOW 15,000 FEET AGL AND AREAS OF
SCT070-120. SURFACE WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY FROM 5 TO 15 KT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH CHILLY CANADIAN AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAINS CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDER HIGHER MOUNTAINS TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRY
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE. LOWEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AROUND 10 TO 20
PERCENT LOWLANDS AND 20 TO 30 PERCENT MOUNTAINS TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
WILL PRODUCE WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50
MPH CAUSING RED FLAG CONDITIONS MOST AREAS. COOLER AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 71  51  83  58 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           66  45  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              69  47  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              68  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              47  34  59  39 /   0   0  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   67  46  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             65  43  75  48 /   0   0  10  10
DEMING                  71  48  81  52 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               72  48  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      70  52  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               65  42  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            70  48  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              64  46  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  71  49  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            70  49  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          68  49  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           69  43  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   72  45  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                73  49  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               67  49  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 52  35  65  41 /   0   0  10  10
MESCALERO               56  36  66  41 /   0   0  10  10
TIMBERON                54  37  65  41 /   0   0  10  10
WINSTON                 61  37  71  42 /   0   0  10  10
HILLSBORO               68  44  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               69  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            65  36  74  40 /   0   0  10  10
HURLEY                  65  43  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   71  40  81  44 /   0   0  10  10
MULE CREEK              70  39  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 68  43  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  74  49  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 73  48  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          75  48  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              74  47  82  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH


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