Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 081111
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
411 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A QUIET AND WARM WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEK WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND LIGHT WINDS EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DURING A WINTER THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY ONE UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM AFTER ANOTHER (THANKS TO EL NINO) IT IS NICE FOR A LITTLE
WHILE TO SAY THAT OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK WILL BE CONTROLLED BY A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. TODAY WE WILL CONTINUE OUR SLOW WARMING
TREND...THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK OUR HIGHS WILL RUN AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. UNDER THE RIDGE WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. THE RIDGE IS IN NO HURRY TO MOVE
OFF SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS PATTERN AND THE RESULTING
WEATHER INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE IN THE EXTENDED MODELS WITH THE ECMWF
KEEPING US DOMINATED BY THE UPPER RIDGE BUT THE GFS FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS HAS BEEN SLIPPING A TROUGH WITH MOISTURE AND RAIN UNDER
THE RIDGE. NEEDLESS TO SAY THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST RIGHT NOW IS PRETTY LOW UNTIL THE MODELS GET A LITTLE
BETTER CONSISTENCY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 08/12Z-09/12Z
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL
EITHER BY UNLIMITED OR OCCASIONALLY HIGH BKN250. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 8 KNOTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OUR QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER THIS WEEK. THAT MEANS
WE WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS. MIN RH`S WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE OF
THINGS WITH MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS BEING 10 TO 15% DURING MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE 20`S...BUT
WITHOUT THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS...CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 59  31  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  27  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              58  28  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              57  26  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              43  20  47  25 /   0   0   0   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   57  29  62  32 /   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             55  26  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  60  25  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               61  29  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      58  32  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               56  24  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            59  29  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              54  29  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  59  27  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            58  26  63  30 /   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          58  28  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           58  15  63  26 /   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   60  26  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                59  27  62  29 /   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               57  28  63  34 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 55  23  57  30 /   0   0   0   0
MESCALERO               51  21  54  27 /   0   0   0   0
TIMBERON                49  21  53  30 /   0   0   0   0
WINSTON                 53  24  59  28 /   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               55  26  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               58  27  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            58  21  58  22 /   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  55  22  61  27 /   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   62  19  66  23 /   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              63  17  64  23 /   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 58  23  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  62  26  64  27 /   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 60  24  64  27 /   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          60  22  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              58  25  62  29 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

99/15/15


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