Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 302103
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
303 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WARM MOSTLY DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK FRONT AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO REGION LATER THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING WARM AIR ALOFT AND SUBSIDENCE TO
THE REGION. THUS EXPECT REDUCED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OCCURRING OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER.

ON THURSDAY A WEAKENING FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA AND
BECOMES ALIGNED NEAR THE MEXICO BORDER. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTOLYTIC
TROUGH SUBSEQUENTLY BECOMES ALMOST STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH PLUS
DESERT HEAT LOW TO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL
SUSTAIN A MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRANSPORT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS THUS RISE INTO THE
50S AND LOWER 60S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO AROUND 1.3
TO 1.5 INCHES BY LATE FRIDAY.

THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS WITH CAPES
AROUND 700 TO 1500 MOST LOCATIONS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PLUS POSSIBLE WEAK SHORT WAVES COMING DOWN
FROM THE NORTH SHOULD THEREFORE GENERATE INCREASING CONVECTION
FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT
INDICATE A PRIMARY RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING SO
SITUATION SHOULD BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 01/00Z-02/00Z...00Z-06Z ISOLD CB/TSTM MAINLY
GILAS  SCT070-090 SCT 100-140 SCT-BKN200-250. GNL SFC WINDS NNE-ESE
7-13 KTS. AFT 06Z: FEW080 SCT250 WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A LITTLE LESS
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THE AREA WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
FEWER STORMS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WITH MORE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ANOTHER DISTURBS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH INCREASING THE RISK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MIN RH WILL RUN AROUND 18% TO 23% LOWLANDS AND 30% TO
40% ABOVE 7500 FT SACRAMENTOS TUESDAY DOWN ABOUT 3% OVERALL ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73 101  75 100 /  10  10  10  10
SIERRA BLANCA           67  96  68  97 /   0  10   0  10
LAS CRUCES              70  99  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
ALAMOGORDO              69  98  71  96 /  10  10  10  20
CLOUDCROFT              56  76  59  74 /  10  20  20  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  98  71  95 /  10  10  10  20
SILVER CITY             64  92  65  88 /  20  20  20  40
DEMING                  69 100  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
LORDSBURG               70 100  70  96 /  10  10  10  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      74 101  75 100 /  10  10  10  10
DELL CITY               66  99  69  98 /   0  10  10  10
FORT HANCOCK            71 101  72 100 /   0  10   0  10
LOMA LINDA              68  94  69  95 /  10  10  10  10
FABENS                  71 101  72 100 /  10  10  10  10
SANTA TERESA            72  99  73  98 /  10  10  10  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          71  99  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
JORNADA RANGE           69  99  71  97 /  10  10  10  20
HATCH                   69 100  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
COLUMBUS                70 100  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
OROGRANDE               71  98  72  97 /  10  10  10  20
MAYHILL                 58  86  60  82 /  10  20  20  40
MESCALERO               57  87  59  84 /  10  20  20  40
TIMBERON                57  85  59  83 /  10  20  10  40
WINSTON                 62  91  63  88 /  10  20  20  50
HILLSBORO               66  98  67  94 /  10  10  10  30
SPACEPORT               69  99  71  97 /  10  10  10  20
LAKE ROBERTS            60  91  61  88 /  20  20  20  50
HURLEY                  66  95  67  91 /  20  20  10  30
CLIFF                   65  98  64  94 /  20  20  20  40
MULE CREEK              66  97  65  93 /  20  20  20  40
FAYWOOD                 66  95  68  92 /  20  10  10  30
ANIMAS                  69 101  70  98 /  10  10  10  30
HACHITA                 68 101  70  98 /  10  10  10  20
ANTELOPE WELLS          67  99  67  95 /  10  10  10  30
CLOVERDALE              66  95  66  91 /  10  10  10  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/20 NOVLAN


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