Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 251935
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
235 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018


.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

What`s starting out as a high pop low QPF forecast through this
evening given the wide swath of light rain along a stalled boundary
will get some extra forcing from a disturbance and translated weak
sfc low late tonight into tomorrow morning. Hi-res solutions are
actually indicating there could be a similar convective line after
12z tomorrow to what occurred along the leading edge this morning,
though would be propagating farther south across portions of central
GA. Enough low level shear and helicity to warrant an isolated
threat of a brief spin up tornado, which was not out of question
earlier today given some weak rotation signatures seen in a few
notches of reflectivity along the line. System looks to have a
quicker exit than forecast before as much of the area should be
starting to scatter/diminish in coverage after about 18z (aside from
the far southeast). Additional QPF looks to be totalling near three
quarters of an inch, so not expecting any widespread flood issues
but cannot rule out something isolated after the next wave.

Wedge will be building in from the northeast for Monday night and
temps should be cooler with most locations in the 40s, though values
still above normal. One hi-res model wanted to squeeze out a few
showers along the leading wedge front as it pushes south, though
think enough mid level subsidence to keep dry.


Baker


.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

No changes for the long term. Models are consistent with a wet
period Tuesday night into Thursday as a couple of short waves
cross the forecast area. The surface front pushes trough Thursday
with the remainder of the period dry. The previous discussion is
included below.


41


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018/

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday/...
For the most part, Rain chances will have ended to start the long
term except for some small chances for light showers over the far
se cwa S and E of MCN Monday Evening.

A lull in the rain chances is still expected Tuesday as strong
surface high pressure moves to the eastern seaboard.

Once again, the GFS and European models are very consistent with
deep moisture returning with overrunning southerly flow kicking in
Tuesday night and for the most part, continuing Wednesday as a warm
front moves N over the area. The GFS and the European models are
now much closer with the timing of the next cold front forecast
to move across the area on Thursday with rain chances diminishing
late Thursday or Thursday evening. The best instability is forecast
late Wednesday night and Thursday associated with the cold front and
there will be a chances for thunderstorms. There is also 30-40 kts
of low level shear forecast and we will be monitoring the potential
for severe thunderstorms with future forecasts.

N GA will once again be the target of the heaviest rainfall potential
with estimated amounts of 1.5 to 2.5 inches possible for a large portion
of n GA  Wednesday and Thursday. We will be monitoring conditions for
any flooding potential with future forecasts.

Dry weather is expected Friday into Sunday as high pressure moves
to the area.

Temperatures will continue above normal this long term period until
Friday when temperatures will return closer to normal.

BDL

CLIMATE...


Records for 02-25

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      80 1930     34 1974     59 1992      8 1967
                            1967
   KATL      78 1996     26 1894     62 1890      9 1967
   KCSG      82 1930     36 1967     65 2001     17 1967
   KMCN      82 1930     35 1914     62 1918     14 1967

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Initial MVFR cigs in swath of light to moderate RA for rest of
afternoon (could have a few periods of improvement here and there,
but overall should continue). Overnight expecting both VSBY and
cigs to get down to IFR and will have to watch for anything
possibly lower than this. Another disturbance will increase
coverage of precip after about 05z, which could also transition to
a line of more convective type development for mainly the southern
sites after 12z. Have included prob30 for TSRA accordingly just
for those. Winds initially out of west (varying NW/SW) then either
light VRB or calm after 00z and light NE into tomorrow morning.
Late shift to NW tomorrow afternoon with some scattering/lifting
behind system.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on all elements.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          55  66  46  66 /  80  90  10   5
Atlanta         55  65  48  66 /  90  80   5   5
Blairsville     51  61  39  61 /  80  80  10   5
Cartersville    53  64  44  65 /  90  80   5   5
Columbus        61  70  52  68 /  80  90  10   5
Gainesville     53  64  45  63 /  80  80  10   5
Macon           60  69  51  68 /  70  90  10   5
Rome            53  64  42  67 /  90  70   5   5
Peachtree City  56  68  47  67 /  90  90   5   5
Vidalia         62  74  54  69 /  40  60  30   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Baker



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