Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 271751
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
151 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016
Have made minor updates to the afternoon pops to account for
latest model solutions on north Georgia convection. No other
changes are planned at this time.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 740 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016/
SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
Showers persisting over portions of northeast GA this morning may be
supported by a weak short wave vicinity of the southern
Appalachians. This feature was evident on water vapor and models
show it lingering into tonight. At this time...gfs and nam show much
of central GA to be generally more stable today...so have limited
the pops to much of north GA today into this evening. Low pressure
developing off the southeast coast is being monitored...but for now
there may be a slight chance of showers for the extreme east central
zones on Saturday. The remainder of the forecast area should be dry
due to subsidence...however increasing southerly flow into the Gulf
coast could trigger isolated showers for the extreme northwest
corner for Saturday. Have stayed close to mav/met temperatures.
LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
FCST PERIOD BEGINS WITH INTERESTS FOCUSED ON COASTAL TROPICAL LOW
PROGGED TO SLOWLY TRACK NW INTO SOUTH CAROLINA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. NHC IS CARRYING AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORMATION IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THOUGH FOR NOW ANY IMPACTS LOOK TO
STAY EAST OF THE CWA AND PRIMARILY BRING SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR PORTIONS OF OUR EAST GOING INTO SUNDAY. POSITIONING OF LOW
MAY EVEN ALLOW FOR ENHANCED SUBSIDENCE IN OUR NORTH AND WEST
FIGHTING DIURNAL FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
FROM MONDAY ONWARD GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE IN EVOLUTION OF LOW
AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FIELD TO OUR EAST. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS
PROGRESSIVE AND STAGNATES SOME FORM OF THE SYSTEM CENTERED IN SC
EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF DAMPENS/SHIFTS EAST AFTER
MONDAY. HAVE DECIDED TO CARRY GENERAL CHANCE POPS IN NORTH AND EAST
WITH SLIGHT ELSEWHERE MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY.
MODELS DO AGREE ON BROAD SW FLOW RETURN WITH RAMPED UP INSTABILITY
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK SO HAVE RAISED TO 30-40 POPS
AREA-WIDE THURS AND FRI FOR A BIT GREATER STORM POTENTIAL.
TEMPS OVERALL LOOK TO STAY SLIGHTLY WARMER /3-5 DEG/ THAN CLIMO
NORMS THRU PERIOD.
VFR expected through the period. Convection is expected to be
limited and generally across north Georgia and away from TAF
sites. East winds at 6-8kt through this evening will diminish
overnight, then increase to 5-7kt by mid morning. FEW-SCT CU
expected to develop late morning/early afternoon.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 86 62 87 64 / 20 10 5 10
Atlanta 86 65 86 66 / 20 10 5 5
Blairsville 80 61 83 58 / 40 20 10 10
Cartersville 85 63 87 61 / 30 20 10 5
Columbus 88 65 87 66 / 10 5 5 5
Gainesville 84 64 85 64 / 50 20 5 5
Macon 88 61 87 64 / 5 5 5 10
Rome 87 63 87 61 / 30 20 20 5
Peachtree City 87 61 86 60 / 20 10 5 5
Vidalia 88 64 86 67 / 10 5 20 20