Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 051112 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
712 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 309 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015/
WITH THE RETURN OF BETTER MOISTURE TODAY...EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE
IN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.
INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LIMITED STILL WITH AROUND 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE.
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG STORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
FEATURE OF THE SHORT TERM THOUGH IS A SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE TRACK
ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BRING US THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE MENTION OF
LIKELY POPS FOR NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY AND SPREAD THEM FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE METRO AREA. IN ADDITION...OUR INSTABILITY INCREASES
THIS DAY WITH VALUES EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG. SHEAR IS MARGINAL...BUT
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY VALUES AND THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TO KEY IN
ON...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD
BE DAMAGING WINDS.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA BUT WITH THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE ON THURSDAY...WILL SEE A DECREASE IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.

11

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 309 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015/
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS AS AN ACTIVE PERIOD AS WE WILL BE IN THE
MIDST OF A POTENTIAL SQUALL LINE PASSAGE WITH STRONG SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING THE AREA THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. AS ALREADY
MENTIONED...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES ARE MARGINAL AND THIS
TREND CONTINUES INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. DESPITE THIS...STILL
THINK THERE WILL BE AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS ONGOING THROUGH
THU NIGHT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

DESPITE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH REPRIEVE
AS NW FLOW ALOFT ENTRENCHES ITSELF ALLOWING FOR A SERIES OF
ADDITIONAL WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH. WHAT WILL BE ON THE DECREASE IS
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AS EXTREME NORTH GA WILL ONLY SEE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.30 INCHES. MOIST ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND WILL SEE HIGHEST POPS THERE IN THE LOW END
LIKELY CATEGORY. GIVEN SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE
NORTH HOWEVER...FEEL ALL AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE DESPITE THE DISPARITY IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

SAME SETUP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
MOST AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. OVERALL MOISTURE
HOWEVER WILL BE ON THE DECREASE AND THIS WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE
SCATTERED RANGE FOR ALL AREAS.

WILL SEE YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL FRONTAL NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. COULD BE LOOKING AT LEAST LIKELY POPS ON
ONE OR BOTH OF THESE DAYS BUT WILL LIMIT TO HIGH END CHANCE FOR
NOW BEING THIS FAR OUT.

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH A CHANCE AT EACH TAF SITE...HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 BUT WITH
FUTURE UPDATES WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER TEMPO. WHILE THE PRO30S ARE
FOR 21Z AND AFTER...ITS POSSIBLE TO SEE TSRA ANYTIME AFTER 19Z.
WINDS AT ATL SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON VSBYS...CIGS AND WIND. MEDIUM ON TIMING OF
PRECIP.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          97  71  90  72 /  30  30  60  60
ATLANTA         94  73  89  73 /  30  30  60  60
BLAIRSVILLE     91  68  82  65 /  40  30  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    96  72  87  70 /  30  30  60  60
COLUMBUS        95  75  92  74 /  30  30  60  60
GAINESVILLE     95  72  87  71 /  40  30  60  60
MACON           96  73  91  73 /  30  30  50  60
ROME            96  72  89  70 /  30  30  60  50
PEACHTREE CITY  95  71  89  72 /  30  30  60  60
VIDALIA         96  75  93  75 /  30  20  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11


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