Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KFFC 250805
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
405 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
No significant feature to focus on during the short term period.
East-west oriented upper ridge extends across all of southern CONUS
with two weak upper highs centered over the southwest US and off the
Carolina coasts. In between these two highs...an easterly wave type
feature is forecast to intensify Tuesday as it moves toward LA coast
...most prominently shown in the 00Z GEM which almost appears like a
weak tropical cyclone. All models do show more widespread convection
associated with this easterly wave Tuesday over north FL and
southwest GA...some of which could move into SW part of CWA.
Otherwise...afternoon/evening diurnal convection likely again both
today and Tuesday with maximum coverage around 30-35 percent today
and 35-40 percent Tuesday. SBCAPE values this afternoon should reach
1000-1500 J/kg but could be a little higher Tuesday...1500-2500 J/kg
so may see a relatively more potential for wet microbursts and
lightning Tuesday. Temps should continue slightly above normal but
Heat Index values should remain below 105 so no advisory needed.

SNELSON


.LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
Models in pretty good agreement in the long term. There are some
differences toward the end of the long term per location of the deep
moisture. through at least the end of the week a ridge of high
pressure will be the dominant feature with diurnally driven
convection each afternoon and evening. By the end of the week a
trough sets up over the Mississippi Valley however the H5 ridge will
keep it from pushing too far east. This is where differences
develop. The GFS brings the Gulf moisture into much of the CWA while
the ECMWF and Canadian models keep the moisture to the west of the
CWA. Will maintain chance pops through the end of the week and raise
pops to high chance...mainly across north Georgia...by next weekend.


17


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
No significant aviation wx impacts expected this forecast with
VFR conditions. Only concern is chance for TSRA in the
afternoon/evening mainly between 19-23z which should remain
scattered with no more than 30 percent coverage at any one time.
Surface winds will remain SW through the forecast with speeds 8kts
or less.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High on all elements.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          96  73  95  75 /  30  30  20  20
Atlanta         94  74  93  75 /  30  30  30  20
Blairsville     88  67  88  70 /  40  30  40  30
Cartersville    94  72  94  74 /  30  30  30  20
Columbus        96  74  94  76 /  30  20  30  20
Gainesville     93  74  93  75 /  30  30  30  20
Macon           97  74  96  75 /  30  20  30  20
Rome            95  72  94  73 /  30  30  40  20
Peachtree City  94  71  93  72 /  30  20  30  20
Vidalia         96  74  95  76 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.