Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 260037 AAB
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
837 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016
No changes to the forecast on this quiet weather night.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 702 PM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016/
SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...
Dry and mild weather expected to continue over the forecast area
through the Short Term forecast period as weak upper ridging crosses
the region tonight through the day Wednesday. Weak short wave
approaches the state overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning.
Medium range models in fairly good agreement concerning strength and
timing of this next system. 12Z run has front remaining well
northwest of the state through 12Z Thursday. Subsequently, onset of
precipitation chances is not looking good before sunup Thursday.
Slightly to moderately above seasonal normal temperatures will
continue through the forecast period.
LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Have trimmed back pops a little across north Georgia as models are
showing a drier scenario. No other changes planned. Previous
PREVIOUS LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
The long term period begins with a strong shortwave extending from
the Ohio valley through the Tennessee and Mid Mississippi river
valleys. Surface reflection in the form of a weak low will be well
north of the area moving from Indiana through Ohio. As we progress
through 09Z Thu...a pre frontal activity will move into NW GA and
a little deeper moisture and stronger lift indicate that pops may
need to be raised with subsequent forecasts if these model trends
continue. For now though...low to mid range scattered pops will
suffice for the extreme northern portions. Forcing abates quickly
as is often the case with these type of systems and 20 to 30
percent coverage is likely the extent of the activity from the
southern Atlanta metro and points south.
There continues to be a healthy amount of CAPE advertised by the
models especially of the most unstable variety. Not sure how much
surface based we will actually get but seeing enough to warrant
inclusion of isolated thunder in the grids...primarily along and
Unfortunately...no relief in sight for the worsening drought
conditions and have a pop free forecast in the post frontal
environment. Temps will also remain above normal through the
period with several 80 degree days in store for the area.
VFR conditions are expected to predominate. Some MVFR or lower
visibilities possible across mainly central Georgia between 06Z
and 14Z. May see some impacts at the KMCN TAF. Some potential for
MVFR ceilings across the far southern portions of the area between
08Z and 14Z but confidence for this is Low. Surface winds light
east or calm for tonight becoming ESE less than 10 kts for
//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence all elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 47 75 53 76 / 0 0 5 30
Atlanta 52 76 58 76 / 0 0 5 30
Blairsville 42 71 49 70 / 0 0 10 30
Cartersville 49 76 57 77 / 0 0 5 30
Columbus 55 80 60 81 / 0 0 5 10
Gainesville 49 73 55 72 / 0 0 5 30
Macon 49 80 57 81 / 0 0 0 10
Rome 48 78 57 78 / 0 0 5 40
Peachtree City 49 77 56 77 / 0 0 5 30
Vidalia 53 80 59 81 / 0 0 0 10