Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 301145
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
745 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODEL SOLUTIONS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH SHORT TERM AS GULF MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS TRANSITIONING BACK INTO THE CWA FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
THE DAMPENING UPPER TROUGH TO THE NW. THE ENHANCED MOISTURE FIELD
LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO WHAT IS PROGGED FOR SUNDAY. ALSO A BETTER CHANCE FOR A
WEAK PERTURBATION TRAVELING ALONG THE WEAKENING TROUGH TO POSSIBLY
ENHANCE SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IN THE NW PART TODAY THAN
TOMORROW...WHEREAS SUNDAY CONVECTION MAY HAVE TO RELY ON THE DIURNAL
AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING COMPONENTS. HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS CONVECTION
KICKING OFF GENERALLY AFTER 18Z BUT WILL LIKELY SEE SOME SHOWERS
FILTERING IN WITH THE MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE MORNING BEFOREHAND
/ALSO TRENDING WITH EARLY MORNING UPSTREAM OBS/. HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY POPS NW NEAR THE BEST MOISTURE/DYNAMICS BY AFTERNOON AND
CHANCE ELSEWHERE. AFTERNOON MLCAPES IN 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND WITH
PROGGED PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES...SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATORS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD WANE AND
PUSH EAST AFTER ABOUT 02-03Z BUT HAVE HELD ONTO CHANCE POPS IN THE
NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH ANY OTHER DISTURBANCES. QPF LOOKS TO BE OVERALL
UNDER HALF AN INCH BUT LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIKELY.

FOR SUNDAY...BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING SOME BETTER DRYING OF THE
MID/LOW COLUMN HEIGHTS FOR SUNDAY AND MAY HAVE MORE OF A CHANCE FOR
SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE A BIT LOWER TODAY NEAR NORMAL WITH ENHANCED CLOUD
COVERAGE...THEN NEAR THE SAME TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER SUNDAY.

BAKER

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWFA SUNDAY EVENING...AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE SHEAR
AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN BY MONDAY. CONVECTION WILL RETURN TO A MORE
SUMMER-LIKE DIURNAL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

THE MODELS ARE PROGGING A WEAK TROUGH TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTER
THE WEAK BOUNDARY MID-WEEK...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL OFF A FEW
DEGREES...BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE MVFR THIS MORNING FOR KCSG OR
A FEW NORTHERN SITES NEAR KATL. OTHERWISE CIGS MAINLY IN 6-8 KFT
RANGE LOWERING TO NEAR 4 KFT THIS EVENING. COULD SEE SOME
SCATTERING OUT OVERNIGHT BUT BETTER CHANCE LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
WINDS NEAR SOUTHERLY TODAY WITH SOME WAIVERING POSSIBLE FROM SSW
TO SSE. THINKING INITIAL SSE NEAR KATL THEN TRANSITION OVER SW
LATER FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAGNITUDES OF 7 KTS OR UNDER. COULD
SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING BUT BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
MAINLY IN 20-02Z PERIOD SO HAVE PROB30 FOR TSRA NEAR THIS TIME.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW ON WIND SHIFT TIMING.
MEDIUM ON PRECIP.
HIGH ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          92  70  92  70 /  40  50  40  20
ATLANTA         89  72  90  73 /  50  40  40  20
BLAIRSVILLE     83  66  84  64 /  50  40  60  40
CARTERSVILLE    89  69  90  68 /  50  40  60  20
COLUMBUS        93  74  93  74 /  50  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     87  71  88  71 /  40  50  50  30
MACON           93  71  93  71 /  30  30  30  20
ROME            90  70  90  68 /  60  40  60  30
PEACHTREE CITY  89  70  90  69 /  50  40  40  20
VIDALIA         93  74  92  74 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER





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