Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 201143 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
645 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017


.SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
Convection waning early this morning as strong short wave continues
to lift north and east away from the forecast area. We end up in a
bit of a lull today as weak upper ridging develops over the region
in response to the next short wave digging into the plains. Still
enough instability expected to linger over the far south for chance
POPs and thunder. With shear diminishing and instability moderate at
best, chances for severe weather appear minimal through the day
today. Upper flow quickly transitions back to southwesterly
overnight bringing increasing chances for precipitation back into
the area. Instability remains marginal through the majority of the
nighttime period as well as shear so once again, chances for severe
weather remain minimal through most of the overnight period. During
the day Saturday, instability increases from the southwest, and
moderate low/mid-level shear begins spreading back into the region
as well, bringing increased coverage of convection and at least a
slight chance for severe thunderstorms, especially across the
western half of the forecast area. Total QPF through the day
Saturday is currently expected to remain below levels that would
pose any widespread flood threat, although localized heavy rain may
produce some minor problems.


20


.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
Long term pattern remains consistent with several short waves
affecting the southeast. Southwest flow aloft will keep a moist
and unstable air mass over the area through the weekend. There
exists more than one opportunity for strong to severe storms over
the next few days. Saturday and again Sunday still seem the most
likely time frames. This remains dependent on existing clouds and
on-going convection...however a strong low level jet and strong
shear will support damaging winds and possibly an isolated
tornado. The main upper low moves across the state Sunday night
and early Monday time frame...although there still remain timing
differences between models. A break expected for Tuesday but
another short wave will bring moisture and a chance for showers
Wednesday and Thursday.

Not thinking there will be a need for a flash flood or flood
watch at this time...although some rises on the more flashy creeks
can be anticipated. Expected rainfall amounts from today through
Sunday night could range from one to three inches...with some
locally higher amounts in convection.


41


&&



AVIATION...
12Z Update...

Mainly a mixture of IFR and MVFR conditions currently. Will see
improvement to mostly VFR conditions by 18-20Z. Will see conditions
deteriorate again with MVFR conditions most areas by 02-04Z and IFR
or lower by 06-08Z. Showers and a few thunderstorms will spread
north and east into the forecast area by 08-12Z. South to southwest
winds 4-10kt.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Low-Medium on ceilings and visibilities, especially through 18Z.
Medium to high for wind

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          71  58  69  57 /  30  40  80  80
Atlanta         72  59  67  57 /  20  50  80  80
Blairsville     67  53  63  52 /  30  30  80  80
Cartersville    71  58  67  55 /  20  50  80  80
Columbus        75  61  70  59 /  20  70  80  80
Gainesville     69  58  66  55 /  30  40  80  80
Macon           74  61  69  60 /  30  60  80  80
Rome            71  56  68  55 /  20  50  80  80
Peachtree City  72  58  69  56 /  20  60  80  80
Vidalia         74  62  70  62 /  30  40  80  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20


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