Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 031444 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1044 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UDPATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTH HALF OF GEORGIA. SEVERE
POTENTIAL INCREASING SOUTH OF I-20.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL PLUS THE 1 TO 3 INCHES THAT HAS FALLEN IN SPOTS
THIS MORNING...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

OTHER STORY IS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WHICH IS NOW FOCUSED SOUTH OF I-
20/I-85 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAD A PEAK WIND GUST OF 45 MPH
AT THE OFFICE /PEACHTREE CITY/ WHEN BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVED
THROUGH AROUND 10AM EDT. STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED (30-40KTS JUST OFF SFC)
ENVIRONMENT - PER FFC/ATL 12Z SOUNDING.

ADJUSTED QPF OVER NEXT 6-9 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR RAINFALL. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AND EASTERN GA. LOOKING AT THE WATER VAPOR LOOP LOOKS
LIKE A WEAK WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS HELPING TO SPARK
SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION WE SEE THIS MORNING. INSTABILITIES ARE
ALSO A BIT HIGH ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS TIME OF DAY. WE HAVE NOT
SEEN ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING BUT THE STORMS ARE PRODUCING A
LOT OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. EXPECTING SHRA/TSRA TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS WE
ARE IN A VERY MOIST PATTERN THOUGH THE WEEKEND. OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WE CAN EXPECT A VERY DIURNAL DRIVEN PATTERN WITH THE MAJORITY
OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ACROSS NORTH GA. WE WILL SEE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BUT THE AXIS OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE STAYS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EVERY DAY SOME OF THEM MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SPC HAS ALL OF NORTH AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA IN A LIGHT RISK AREA TODAY WITH THE REST OF
CENTRAL GA IN A MARGINAL RISK. CURRENTLY DAYS 2 AND 3 ARE ONLY IN A
GENERAL RISK BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THEM UPGRADED TO AT
LEAST A MARGINAL RISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST THREATS FROM
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
..LIGHTNING...HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

01

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE STILL SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH... CURRENTLY
CAUSING SO MUCH UNSETTLED WEATHER... WEAKENING AND SHEARING
EASTWARD BY LATE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER... A FAIRLY ACTIVE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARKED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY REGION
ON TUESDAY. ALL THIS WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY MID WEAK... AND POSSIBLE REDUCING RAIN
CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...
DESPITE ANY WEAK RIDGE INFLUENCE... THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD STILL BE
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE.
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IS STILL NORTH OF THE ATL AREA
TAF SITES BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE PRECIP BY 14-15Z. AREAL COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH OUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL STAY OUT OF THE W TO SW IN
THE 6-12KT RANGE. WILL SEE SOME WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
15KT RANGE GUSTING TO 25KT. CEILINGS SHOULD ALSO STAY VFR EXCEPT
IN AND AROUND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          87  69  87  71 /  80  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  85  72 /  80  50  50  50
BLAIRSVILLE     76  64  77  65 / 100  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    83  68  83  70 /  90  60  70  70
COLUMBUS        91  72  89  72 /  40  30  50  40
GAINESVILLE     82  68  82  70 /  90  60  60  50
MACON           92  71  92  71 /  40  30  50  30
ROME            83  69  83  70 / 100  70  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  70  86  71 /  80  40  50  40
VIDALIA         92  73  93  73 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...83
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...01


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