Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 080835
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
335 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016



.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL NO SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. LOOKING AT A RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY TODAY WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...
MAINLY RAIN ELSEWHERE BEFORE LATE IN THE DAY WHEN COLD AIR SPILLS
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MODEL AND WPC QPF REMAINS LOW...WHICH IS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE LOW PW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS
CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SNOWFALL TOTALS LIMITED...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS SINCE HIGHEST QPF MOST AREAS IS BEFORE THE CHANGE-
OVER TO ALL OR PREDOMINATELY SNOW. MOUNTAIN COUNTIES STILL REACHING
ADVISORY LEVELS DUE TO THE CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLIER
BEFORE QPF VALUES DROP. LOOKS LIKE WE WILL NEED TO ADD CATOOSA AND
WHITFIELD COUNTIES FOR SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IN THEIR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STILL LIKELY TO SEE SOME SNOW SHOWER/FLURRY ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE ATLANTA AND ATHENS METRO AREAS AND INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS.

20


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500MB TROUGH AND STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO
THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. SO ANY LINGERING ISO/SCT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
TAPER OFF DURING THIS PERIOD. SINCE THE ATMOS IS PRETTY DRY AT THIS
POINT AND VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL SNOW IS ANTICIPATED.

THE FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND THE MID LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY
QUIET. CWFA WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
LONG TERM.

THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PROGGING A PRETTY GOOD SHORTWAVE TO DIG DOWN
IN THE FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH A
LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF/FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL
START PUSHING NORTH LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FURTHER WEST AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY KEPT POPS AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF IS COMING IN A LITTLE WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE SYSTEM IS STILL A LITTLE FAR OUT...SO WILL GO
WITH PERSISTENCE FOR NOW AND KEEP POPS CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT OR LESS
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

PTYPE MAY BE AN ISSUE WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM. DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...TEMPS LOOK WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. HOWEVER...FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKIER. THE PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIPITATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN GA. ITS STILL
TOO FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN EXACT PTYPES...SO WILL GO WITH RA OR SN.
INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE...ESPECIALLY SINCE
PTYPE ISSUES ARE INVOLVED.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.
THE NEXT FRONT MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE CWFA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.





NLISTEMAA


&&

.AVIATION... 06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...BUT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD MVFR CIGS INTO ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 12-14Z MON.
EXPECT THESE CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR MID LEVEL CIGS BY 18Z MON ALONG
THE A CHANCE OF SPOTTY -SHRA THRU THE AFTERNOON. VFR MID LEVEL CIGS
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 00Z TUE WHEN MVFR CIGS SPREAD BACK IN ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED -SHSN. CURRENT NW WINDS AROUND 5-
7KTS WILL BACK MORE WEST BY 06-09Z MON... AND REMAIN MAINLY WESTERLY
ON MON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15KTS BY 18Z WITH OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE METRO ATLANTA AND ATHENS TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

MEDIUM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON VFR CIG.
LOW ON PRECIP CHANCE/TYPE LATE IN PERIOD.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  29  38  23 /  40  40  10  10
ATLANTA         50  28  36  23 /  30  30  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     44  23  29  17 /  60  60  40  30
CARTERSVILLE    50  28  35  21 /  40  40  20  10
COLUMBUS        54  31  42  26 /  20  20   5   5
GAINESVILLE     49  27  34  22 /  50  50  20  10
MACON           56  32  42  25 /  30  30   5   5
ROME            48  28  35  20 /  40  40  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  52  29  37  23 /  30  30  10  10
VIDALIA         60  34  45  28 /  20  20   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CATOOSA...DAWSON...FANNIN...
GILMER...LUMPKIN...MURRAY...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...20


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