Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 261154
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
654 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Will continue with areas of fog mention through mid morning this
morning, across central and south-central Kansas. The fog may
become dense in the southwestern counties of our forecast area,
westward into western Kansas, near and west of the back edge of
the low stratus deck.

GOES-16 water vapor imagery indicated a robust shortwave trough
over Colorado/New Mexico early this morning. This progressive
upper trough will move eastward across Kansas/Oklahoma this
afternoon and tonight, reaching Missouri/Arkansas by late Monday
morning. The short range model guidance suite continues to keep
the warm sector just south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border, as the
upper trough passes through the region. A developing 850 mb low-
level jet will transport Gulf moisture (along Texas coastal plain
early this am) northward today into tonight into the narrow warm
sector and north of the warm front. Combined with strong ascent
and mid-level cooling from the upper trough, we expect scattered
showers/thunderstorms to develop over central/south-central Kansas
this afternoon, with coverage becoming numerous tonight. A steep
plume of mid-level lapse rates (7.5-8.5 C/Km) just ahead of upper
trough, will allow for elevated CAPE of 500 to 1000 j/kg with
40-45 kts of effective bulk shear across southern Kansas this
afternoon/evening. This will support a few strong to marginally
severe storms, with hail of nickel to half dollar size as the main
threat. Trimmed highs this afternoon about 3-7 degrees, given
extensive cloud cover and the warm front remaining to the south.

A few rain showers may linger in the far east Monday morning
until the system departs to the east. The next upper trough is
progged to dig into the southwest Monday into Tuesday. Near
seasonal temperatures are expected both Monday and Tuesday with
lack of return southerly flow. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop over the High Plains Tuesday, spreading eastward across
the forecast area Tuesday night ahead of the approaching upper
trough.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The upper trough in the southwest is progged to form into a slow-
moving closed low as it tracks slowly east across the
Central/Southern Plains Wednesday through Thursday night. Although
most medium range model guidance keep the warm sector just south
of Kansas, strong 850 moisture transport and elevated instability
is progged into the forecast area, as this slow moving upper low
moves through. The strength of the upper trough and moisture
transport into the system suggest periods of widespread convective
rainfall Wednesday into Thursday, with locally heavy rainfall
likely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 653 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

LIFR and IFR ceiling will gradually improve to MVFR by mid-late
this morning, and possibly to low VFR by midday. Numerous
showers/thunderstorms are expected to impact the region mid-late
afternoon through the evening, as a strong storm system approaches
from the west. Strong to severe storms are possible, especially
from southern Kansas on south. MVFR and possibly IFR ceiling
should return this evening and overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Three separate weather systems have the potential to produce
widespread rainfall across the forecast area over the next 7 day
period. Consequently, grassland fire danger is not expected to be
elevated during this period, but instead remain mostly low to
moderate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    63  47  65  44 /  50  70  10   0
Hutchinson      59  44  64  42 /  40  70  10   0
Newton          59  45  61  42 /  40  70  10   0
ElDorado        61  47  62  43 /  40  80  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   68  49  65  44 /  40  70  10   0
Russell         58  40  64  41 /  50  60   0   0
Great Bend      58  41  65  42 /  60  70  10   0
Salina          59  44  64  41 /  40  70  10   0
McPherson       59  44  63  41 /  40  70  10   0
Coffeyville     68  52  64  44 /  20  80  30   0
Chanute         62  50  62  44 /  10  90  30   0
Iola            62  50  62  44 /  10  90  40   0
Parsons-KPPF    66  51  63  44 /  20  80  30   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...JMC


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