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000
FXUS63 KMQT 221725
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
125 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 521 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

DRY AIR WILL BE SLOWLY EDGING SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MI
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE 00Z SOUNDS FROM CWPL
AND KGRB...THEY WERE OF VERY DIFFERENT AIRMASSES. THE LARGER WX
PATTERN LOOKS LIKE THIS...A LARGE 500MB RIDGE STRETCHING FROM
CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH E MT A AND INTO CO...WITH A N STREAM LOW SET
UP OVER EASTERN HUDSON BAY AND N QUEBEC...AND THE NEARLY STEADY
STATE 500MB LOW SPINNING ACROSS S MN AND IA. THE LARGE SFC LOW
STRETCHING FROM IA THROUGH IL/LAKE MI/LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD.

THE AXIS OF STRONGER FGEN HAS BEEN PRODUCTIVE IN PRODUCING A FEW
SHOWERS...BUT WITH NOT MUCH AMPLIFICATION. AS A RESULT...SLIGHTLY
LOWER PRECIP AMOUNTS WERE NEEDED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING HOURS.
AS THIS AREA SHIFTS SE DURING THE DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING PRECIP AT OR ABOVE A TENTH
OF AN INCH WILL FALL OVER THE FAR WEST THIS MORNING...AND THEN SINK
TO S CENTRAL UPPER MI THIS EVENING. WITH THE FAVORABLE NE UPSLOPE
WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE OVER N CENTRAL UPPER MI 00-06Z THURSDAY. FOG WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT...SLOWLY DIMINISHING N TO S AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN. EXPECT DEW POINTS IN THE 40S TO MID 50S THIS MORNING TO FALL
INTO THE 30S NW TO SE TONIGHT.

WHILE THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT FROM LOWER MI THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN. THE
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND NEARING
HIGH FROM NORTHERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN INCREASING NE-NNE WINDS TO
THE REGION...WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS OVER ALL BUT FAR W UPPER MI
OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO -1 TO 3C /LOWEST W/ BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...WITH SFC TEMPS UNDER DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER...FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S W AND CENTRAL. WE HAVEN/T SEEN LOWS IN THE 30S
FOR MUCH OF THE CWA IN APPROX 5 DAYS...SO IT WILL BE A BIT OF A
CHANGE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

A CLOSED 500 MB LOW WILL BE IN THE PACIFIC NW WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAINS 12Z THU. PATTERN
CHANGES LITTLE THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES MOVING TO THE EASTERN U.S. 12Z SAT AND THE RIDGE STAYING PUT
IN THE PLAINS. LOOKS DRY FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE SOME FROST FOR THU NIGHT AND FRI NIGHT
AND PUT IT IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TO HELP WITH THE FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST. THE FROST/FREEZE SEASON STARTS AFTER MEMORIAL DAY...BUT
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PRODUCT. WITH THE RIDGE NEARBY AND VERY
DRY AND COLD AIR...GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL SET UP
AND WENT WITH THE COLDEST GUIDANCE I COULD FIND FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
WHICH WAS THE ADJMET AND MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS FOR COLDER SPOTS.
HIGHS ON THU WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO THE MID 50S. FOR FRI...WENT
COLDER FOR HIGHS AS WELL WITH A COLDER START IN THE MORNING AND 850
MB TEMPERATURES WARMING ONLY TO 4C. MIXING THIS DOWN TO THE SFC
WOULD GIVE ME HIGHS AROUND 60 AT BEST. THE TEMPERATURES WERE THE
MAIN THING THAT I ADJUSTED FOR THIS FORECAST WITH A SLIGHTLY COLDER
FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH TROUGHING IN THE PACIFIC NW AND IN NEW ENGLAND 12Z SAT.
PATTERN CHANGES VERY LITTLE 12Z SUN THROUGH 12Z TUE. WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY THIS FORECAST PERIOD AND QUIET WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PCPN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT
SETTING UP TO THE SOUTH...BUT NOT REAL IMPRESSED WITH SEEING MUCH
RAIN OUT OF THIS FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 123 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

AS A STEADY NNE WIND BTWN HI PRES IN SCENTRAL CANADA AND LO PRES
OVER THE LWR GRT LKS ADVECTS MUCH DRIER LLVL AIR OVER UPR MI...
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR THIS EVNG. CMX WL BE CLOSER TO
THE INCOMING DRIER AIR AND SEE A QUICKER IMPROVEMENT THAN AT IWD/
SAW...WHERE A MORE SGNFT UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WL ALSO SLOW THE
TREND TOWARD VFR. UNDER A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT...EXPECT GUSTY
NNE WINDS AT ALL 3 SITES TNGT/THU MRNG.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NW TODAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THE FOG
ON THE GREAT LAKES. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LINGERING WARM AIR
ALOFT SHOULD KEEP WINDS IN 20-25KT RANGE. THEN...A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ246>251-
     265>267.

  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ162-240>242-245-263.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
  DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-
     250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07