Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 230523
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1223 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm through early next week with numerous rain
showers, as an upper low rotates through the area. Progressively
colder mid and late week with passage of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1015 PM Sunday...

No changes needed at this time. Compact and intense low
pressure center located across the GA/TN line will move
northeast overnight while slowly weakening. Rain will overspread
the area as a result with a soaking through tomorrow. It still
appears that the eastern half of WV and southwest VA will see some
of the highest QPF amounts...either side of an inch but over a
12 hour period. There could be locally higher amounts in the
mountains.


As of 640 PM Sunday...

Just some minor changes to the forecast through
tomorrow...mainly to nudge pops toward latest runs of HRRR. QPF
amounts still look manageable with regards to flood
potential...so no headlines planned attm. It still appears the
highest ridges of Randolph and Pocahontas will change to wet
snow tomorrow with some accumulation likely by late afternoon.

As of 250 PM Sunday...

Weak short wave is currently pushing northward across West
Virginia and spreading some light rain showers across the
Eastern Forecast Area. There will likely be a break in the
action before a more robust short wave arrives later tonight as
upper low approaches. Rainfall tonight will likely be moderate
to even heavy at times as the lapse rates increase with
approaching 500mb low over the warm moist airmass settled in
the low levels. Forecast soundings indicate some weak elevated
instability, too weak to mention thunder in the forecast, but an
embedded thunderstorm or two is certainly not out of the
question. Have decided to not go with a flood watch with about
an inch or slightly more QPF expected. There is some concern
with the low level southeasterly flow late tonight. The upslope
component could enhance some higher amounts along the east
facing slopes and this is where I have currently placed the
highest QPF values. However, in the Lowlands this could also
cause the opposite scenario with a shadow effect. Overall, any
flooding should be minor and localized.

Precip will lighten up tomorrow morning, but wrap around showers
will likely persist through the day. Flow turns to the NW as low
passes to our SE. Model guidance is still trying to bring in
colder temps aloft and rain may turn to snow at the higher
elevations late Monday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

By Monday night, the strong low moves to our east taking most of the
rain showers with it. However, wrap around moisture will continue to
produce rain showers across the north and the possibility of snow
showers along the northeast mountains under north to northwest flow
into Tuesday.

Guidance suggest it should be dry with mild temperatures Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

Another but weaker low pressure system crosses east north of the
area Wednesday bringing a pair of fronts with chance for mainly
rain showers. Temperatures at H850 cool down to minus 7C
suggesting all snow possible Wednesday night and Thursday.

From Thursday night on, deep northwest flow will persists through
the end of the week, allowing mid level short waves to ride along
and produce upslope snow over the northeast mountains through the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1220 AM Monday...

Overall, deteriorating aviation conditions expected through the
TAF period as a strong upper level and surface low brings
copious rain to the central Appalachians and middle Ohio Valley.
Wind flows in the lower levels will keep the ceilings from
lowering too quickly across the lowlands, but saturation of
these lower levels will eventually bring conditions down to low
end MVFR to IFR. However, increasing winds will keep them in
check at the same time. A lot of moving parts to this forecast,
so some lower confidence is involved here. EKN will also hold
off the IFR with downsloping easterly winds.

LAMP guidance is the most pessimistic with the forecast, but the
pattern/timing is good, so tempered this with a blend of the MET
and MAV for ceilings and visibilities.

Heavier rain may need IFR TEMPOs.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Conditions could fluctuate continuously
with rain bands from system overnight and tomorrow. Timing of
MVFR/IFR onset may vary slightly.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 01/23/17
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    M    M    M    L    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR in rain and fog possible Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.