Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 221925
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
225 PM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in tonight, and holds on through Friday.
An cold front crosses Saturday. High pressure Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Wednesday...

Strong high pressure will build from the west to provide dry
conditions through the period. Models suggest very cold air at
H850 of about minus 8C, will move over the area tonight. With
clear skies, near calm winds, and associated radiation cooling,
expect temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 20s.

The low inversion at H850 lowers tonight as a subsidence inversion,
as high pressure builds in. This brings into question timing of the
breaking up of the stratocu later tonight.

Went closer to the blend of all models for temperatures through
the period. Valley temperatures will fall below ridgetop
temperatures overnight where it clears.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

No significant changes. High pressure, cool and dry weather, and
light winds are expected Thursday and Friday. Daytime high temperatures
will be in the 40s and 50s and overnight lows in the upper 20s
to upper 30s. Late in the period clouds will begin to move in
from the west ahead of a cold front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Wednesday...

A chance of rain and or snow showers will begin early Saturday
morning mostly across the northern counties and mountains as a
cold front sweeps through. A brief clearing is expected later
Saturday afternoon before another disturbance brings in more
cold air and a mix of rain/snow overnight Saturday into Sunday.
This second wave of precipitation is also expected to only
affect the northern and mountain counties. High pressure takes
over late Sunday and slowly drifts eastward through mid- week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 105 AM Wednesday...

Plenty of low level stratus persists over the area behind the
cold front under northerly flow. With some mixing and dry air
moving in, expect the status clouds to slowly dissipate
providing pockets of sunshine.

Improvements are foreseen mainly across the lowlands, and the
southern WV mountains this afternoon.  A subsidence inversion will
be lowering tonight so, if ceilings persist, they will lower, and
may go IFR. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions will prevail.

Gentle to moderate winds will diminish today, and become calm
tonight, as high pressure builds across the area.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of lifting and break up of MVFR
stratocu this afternoon and evening could vary. BKW and EKN
ceilings could drop to near IFR tonight if the clouds do not
break up.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...ARJ



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