Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 250622
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
122 AM EST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front crosses pre- and post- dawn Saturday
morning, followed by cooler weather for the weekend. A couple
systems next week with precipitation chances.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 1010 PM Friday...

Prefrontal line of strong storms poised to cross into our
southeast Ohio counties in the next 1 to 2 hours. Much of the
activity over the last few hours has been strong to only
marginally severe. The prospects for severe wx thankfully appear
to be waning overnight with southeast Ohio standing the best
chance for some damaging wind gusts in bowing segments within
the line.

As of 645 PM Friday...

See latest PNS/RER for info today`s records, February all time
records, and all time record meteorological winter highs.

Forecast generally in good shape. I tweaked hourly pops using
latest HRRR as an aid. There is still a concern for locally
damaging wind gusts after midnight across southeast Ohio,
northeast Kentucky and western West Virginia. The mid level
capping currently in place will erode overnight with the
approach of the front. With steepening low level lapse rates
along with the low dewpoint spreads in place...concern exist for
a congealing QLCS bringing down strong downdrafts.

As of 315 PM Friday...

After a record breaking warm afternoon and a dry, mild evening,
a strong cold front still appears on track to bring a line of
showers and thunderstorms through the area just ahead of it
overnight into Saturday morning. The main convective threat is
wind damage as super cells that form upstream evolve into a fast
moving squall line, but the hail and even tornado threat could
not be entirely ruled out if the low level shear can give rise
to sufficient mesoscale organization.

Dry slot behind the cold front will bring a quick end to the
showers and thunderstorms from west to east on Saturday, but
wrap around precipitation will then spread into northern
portions of the area later Saturday afternoon. These rain
showers will start turning over to snow showers late, as much
colder air advects in.

Used a blend of primarily near term sources for hourly
temperatures in the warm air ahead of the front tonight, and in
the cold advection behind the front on Saturday. Lows tonight
will be close to or equal to highs Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Friday...

Cold air advection on W/NW flow will bring the chance for
upslope snow showers across the mountains through early Sunday
morning. Moisture is limited so accumulations will be very light
with generally less than an inch. High pressure builds over the
area on Sunday and although we remain dry it will be cool
relatively speaking. High pressure should hold through most of
the day Monday, however a southern stream system will approach
Monday evening and showers enter SW West Virginia by 00Z
Tuesday out ahead of a warm front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 335 PM Friday...

Zonal flow aloft will make for a progressive and active
pattern next week. Our first system brings showers Monday night
into Tuesday. The next system will arrive mid week as low
pressure tracking across the Great Lakes drag a cold front
through the region. Behind this colder air arrives again on NW
flow and this will bring a chance for snow showers across the
mountains towards the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 645 PM Friday...

Line of convection now near the HTS-PKB corridor and should
affect all of the terminals by 12Z this morning. Characteristics
are heavy rain and wind gusts in excess of 40kts for the most
part with half inch hail possible as well. Low level flow off
the surface increases to around 50-60kts up towards the 5kft
level. Cold front still lingers back towards ZZV and LHQ. Winds
will gust ahead of the front even without convection, and behind
the front as well with winds veering to a more west
northwesterly direction heading into Saturday. As far as
restrictions go, IFR visibilities likely at the onset of
convection wth mainly MVFR ceilings.

Beyond the frontal passage, cold air advection brings ceilings
back in, deteriorating to MVFR after 20Z Saturday, especially
in the mountains. Light snow will develop on the back end of the
forecast in the EKN area with MVFR visibilities developing
after 00Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of convection/storms to vary. Wind
gust extremes to vary in convection/storms.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 02/25/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...26


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