Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 122031
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
331 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS INTO
SATURDAY...AND BITTERLY COLD WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. A COMPLEX
SYSTEM COULD BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ITS LIGHT SNOW WILL SHIFT EAST BY
EVENING...WITH ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTH.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
TRANSITION THE LIGHT SNOW TO SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THEN
     GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE ARCTIC FRONT DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE A LINE OF WINDY SNOW
SQUALLS WITH THE FRONT...OTHERWISE...MAINLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND LEAST IN THE WEST. ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL
MOSTLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
NO HEADLINES FOR SNOW...CANCELLED THE SW VA ADVISORY FOR
SNOW...BUT WIND CHILLS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
THIS PERIOD. LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST IN TERMS OF
HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL...FOCUSING ON THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND THEIR FOOTHILLS. IT WILL BE NOTED IN THE ADVISORY
THAT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS MAY REACH
VALUES OF WARNING CRITERIA. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO DIVE TONIGHT AND
RECOVER VERY LITTLE FOR SATURDAY...TRULY IN THE DEEP
FREEZE...MADE EVEN WORSE EVERYWHERE BY THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
SO EVEN THOUGH WE DO NOT MEET WIND CHILL CRITERIA IN THE LOW
LANDS...APPARENT TEMPS WILL NOT BE MUCH ABOVE ZERO DURING
SATURDAY. BE PREPARED!

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD AIR BEGINS A SLOW RETREAT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN IN THE SOUTH SUNDAY EVENING...AND
GRADUALLY PUSH NORTH AS THE FAR NE CORNER OF A WAVE LIFTS NORTH AS A
SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS LOW IS SLOW TO DEEPEN...BUT AS IT IS DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES
INTO OUR NEIGHBORHOOD THERE IS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON ITS TRACK AND
THEREFORE PRECIPITATION TYPES.  RIGHT NOW THE EURO KEEPS A SOLID
WARM WEDGE IN OVER US LENDING MORE TOWARDS A RAIN SOLUTION WHILE THE
GFS AND NAM TREND COLDER WHICH WOULD GIVE US A SNOW SOLUTION.
DEFINITELY NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR ANY WATCHES AT THE MOMENT.

RIGHT NOW...CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE THREE WHICH FOLLOWS
CLOSELY TO THE WPC GUIDANCE. THIS WOULD GIVE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AT
THE ONSET ALMOST AREA WIDE BEFORE SWITCHING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXCEPT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS MAY HAVE A LOCAL MAXIMA IN
SNOW SINCE THE COLD AIR LINGERS A LITTLE WHILE LONGER WAITING FOR
THE WARM AIR TO ARRIVE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING EARLY NEXT WEEK STORM...AND
THUS...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. GFS AND NAM SEEMS TO BE
TRENDING COLDER/MORE EASTERLY WITH THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW A WARMER/MORE WESTERLY TRACK WITH THE
SYSTEM. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATH...OF COURSE...CREATES CONUNDRUMS
IN THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT FORECAST. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
MODEL...GOOD 40+KT LLJ WILL AID IN HIGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION. ONE THING THAT DOES LOOK FAIRLY CERTAIN...IS MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES SHOULD GET DECENT ACCUMULATIONS...WITH LOWLANDS LESS
CERTAIN...AS MAY TRANSITION TO A RAIN SNOW MIX OR EVEN ALL RAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW...THEN
POSSIBLY BACK TO A MIX OR ALL RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST OHIO
ZONES ARE ALSO QUITE UNCERTAIN...AS DEPENDING ON THE PATH OF THE
SYSTEM...THERE MAY BE A SHARP GRADIENT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT
SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES COULD SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. IN
ADDITION...IF THE STORM TAKES A MORE WESTERLY TRACK...MAY EVEN SEE
PERIODS OF A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING PERIODS OF SLEET ACROSS THE AREA
PARTICULARLY MONDAY NIGHT. SO ALL IN ALL...STILL LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY...BUT WILL START HIGHLIGHTING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO. IN
ADDITION...ANY SNOW THAT OCCURS...WILL BE A HEAVY WET SNOW.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...EXPECTING QPF OF OVER AN
INCH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND UP TO AN INCH ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
THIS...PARTICULARLY IF QUITE A BIT OF IT FALLS AS RAIN...COULD LEAD
TO RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS...AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO STRONG
RISES ON THE MAIN STEM RIVERS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME SNOW MOSTLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS. AN ARCTIC FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF IFR SQUALLS ALONG
THE FRONT POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS 20 TO 35 KTS...FOLLOWED
BY MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS INTO SATURDAY.

THRU 00Z...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SNOW THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY
CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AFFECTING BKW...THEN MAINLY INTO MOUNTAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS KICK IN.
ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS BUT BRIEFLY LOWER IN LIGHT
SNOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:  ***LOW/MEDIUM/HIGH***

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
THEN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT MUCH MORE
NUMEROUS IN THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF SNOW SHOWERS...GENERALLY
VFR CEILINGS WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER AND MVFR CEILINGS REMAINDER OF
LOW LANDS...MVFR TO IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS MOUNTAINS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST SATURDAY MORNING.




FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SNOW LOOKS TO BE MORE SCATTERED THIS AFTERNOON
OUTSIDE OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L

IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW...RAIN...OR MIXED PRECIP MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AREA WIDE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR WVZ032-035>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/JW/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM/JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV


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