Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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571
FXUS61 KRLX 242057
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
357 PM EST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm front pushes north through the area tonight. Cold front
sweeps across Sunday. High pressure brings dry air by Sunday
and start to work week. Next low pressure system mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 350 PM Saturday...

Sent an update to remove most PoPs across the lowlands in a lull
suggested by the HRRR and latest radar images. Another but more
widespread area of rainfall is evident moving northeast across
central KY into southern OH. This activity is expected to reach
southeast OH by 00Z Sunday. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 120 PM Saturday...

Warm advection rainfall did finally pick up in intensity, causing
some small stream and poor drainage flooding. This rain will move
out of the area by this evening, but more rounds are expected later
tonight.

As of 1045 AM Saturday...

Rain overnight did not amount to much, and neither is warm
advection rain today so far. Mainstem Ohio river forecasts
reflect lower crests, as a result. The weather forecast is
otherwise largely on track.

As of 300 AM Saturday...

A frontal boundary will remain across the area today as a wave
brings an area of showers. Much of the area should then go into
a lull later this afternoon and early this evening as the front
pushes north of the area. Showers will return later tonight as a
cold front approaches from the west. Models continue to show the
highest rainfall amounts over southeastern Ohio and northern
West Virginia, although amounts are toned down compared to
previous runs. Will continue the flood watch as the ground is
saturated and streams and rivers continue to run high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...

Wave developing along the front on the south and east side of
the mountains could push some light rain back into the southwest
Virginia and far southern West Virginia counties Sunday
night/early Monday morning, but will quickly be forced back out
of the southern zones of the CWA. Otherwise, the period is
dominated by high pressure and a much welcomed drying out
period. Dominant upper level ridging over the Gulf of Mexico and
Florida keeps the area milder than normal for this time of year
with above 0C 850mb temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...

More rain arrives for the middle to end of the week from a fast
moving panhandle low pressure system. Will need to watch the
rainfall amounts combined with the ability for the
rivers/creeks/streams/surface to recover from a very wet second
half of February, and if the system will set up over the Ohio
Valley yet again.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 PM Saturday...

Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions in rain will improve from
southwest to northeast by this evening, as the causative warm
front pushes through most of the area. The rain was helping to
thin out the 1SM and less visibility in fog though.

Ceilings in the warm sector will be VFR tonight into Sunday
morning, but visibility will drop to MVFR in periods of rain
overnight into Sunday. Gusty south to southwest winds across
most of the area tonight should preclude widespread dense fog
overnight.

The front will quickly charge through late Sunday morning to
early Sunday afternoon. This will be accompanied by gusty
showers with a wind shift to the west to southwest, and brief
MVFR to IFR conditions. Quick improvement to VFR behind the
front will commence from the west, as the TAF period comes to a
close.

Light north to northeast surface flow ahead of the warm front
this afternoon will become south once the warm front passes.
South of the warm front, BKW was already experiencing gusty
southwest winds, and these winds will reach CRW later this
afternoon. South to southwest winds will pick up and become
gusty overnight tonight into Sunday morning, before a shift to
the west to southwest, and still gusty, as the front crosses
midday Sunday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low tom medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions will
vary, as will gusty winds.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
Any IFR in and near the mountains Sunday afternoon will quickly
improve to VFR. IFR possible in dense fog Monday and Tuesday
mornings, and in rain Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for WVZ005>011.
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...TRM



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