Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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771
FXUS61 KRLX 111105
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
605 AM EST Sun Dec 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold
front crosses toward midweek bringing another arctic blast and
ushering in a more unsettled pattern through next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Sunday...

Never saw any obs in the CWA with snow, but any snow that has been
falling across extreme north should taper off pretty quickly over
the next couple hours. Temperatures continue to warm with ongoing
WAA and expecting a decent warm up today for most. One exception
will be the eastern slopes where southeast flow cold air damming
will keep things on the cool side.

As a low pressure system moves through the western Great Lakes
tonight, a cold front will begin moving through from west to east.
Have an area of 80+ POPs along and ahead of the front for tonight.
Some concern that the eastern slopes could still be near freezing
when the precip starts early Monday morning -- will need to
monitor this for freezing rain potential. Have a few hundredths of
ice accretion, mainly in Pocahontas County. Will add this to the
HWO. For the rest of the forecast area, generally looking at
around 0.4-0.5" of rain tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

The tail end of a weather system will impact the area on Monday
evening. While cold air is filtering in believe most places will
remain rain with the exception being the highest terrain.  After
the front moves off to the east, high pressure builds and then the
big story will be a bitter cold air intrusion on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

-20C 850 mb blob arrives Thursday and will drop temps into the
low teens in the lowlands and single digits in the high country.
Wind chills will likely drop to advisory levels in the Pocahontas
and Randolph county highlands.

Confidence remains low concerning overall pattern evolution for
the remainder of the long term. Multiple rounds of precipitation
are possible through the period with any waves embedded in the
larger scale flow.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 600 AM Sunday...

VFR expected into tonight, with clouds on the increase. A surface
low moves through the western Great Lakes tonight, bringing
overnight rain. Expect IFR visibilities in the rain, with IFR
ceilings behind it.

Winds will gradually turn from southeast to southwest through the
TAF period. VAD shows winds just above any lingering inversion
are not as strong as they were overnight, so have removed LLWS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain and category changes may vary
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SUN 12/11/16
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in rain and stratus late tonight into Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...DTC
AVIATION...MZ



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