Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 261431
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1031 AM EDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front passes today with showers and thunderstorms
expected. Another system Monday night into Tuesday and again
late in the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM Sunday...

Forecast on track with initial band of showers affecting western
portions of the forecast area.

As of 635 AM Sunday...

A cold front moves through the area today bringing showers and
thunderstorms. While buoyancy is on the weak side of the
spectrum, wind shear is favorable for rotating updrafts in the
storms that do form which lends to some potential for severe
storms this afternoon. The thin CAPE profile and saturated
column will keep storms low topped, but rainfall should be quite
efficient as PW`s are in the 90th percentile for this time of
year in the 1.25" range. 1 hour FFG values support 1.25" while 3
hour FFG values are 1.5 - 2.5" which probably will not be
exceeded today though over north central WV a FFG minimum exists
and the WPC has a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for most
of the state of WV. We also have a marginal risk from the SPC
for damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 350 AM Sunday...

Precipitation should be tapering off early Monday, however with
us still being in the warm sector never have POPs going
completely dry before increasing again late Monday and Monday
night as another system approaches from the SW. This one not
quite as strong a the one we will see today into tonight, but
still enough for showers and thunderstorms. The GFS does show a
bit of a negative tilt to the shortwave trough. These showers
and storms should come to an end Tuesday night, with a dry day
expected Wednesday. Temperatures will run above normal through
the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 AM Sunday...

Details still pretty murky as models struggle to agree on a
system late in the week. Both GFS and ECMWF show a surface low
and closed 500mb low in the area on Friday, but have quite
different evolutions of this system. With both showing something
do have likely POPs on Friday based on a consensus blend.
High temperatures for the end of the week should be near to
just above normal, while lows will be decently above normal with
clouds around.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 635 AM Sunday...

Generally VFR today despite a cold front moving through. Could
see some IFR form near/under thunderstorms. Some potential for
overnight fog if clearing takes place, but the next system is
fast on the heels of the cold front today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need TEMPO IFR in storms today..

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR fog and low ceilings possible Sunday night as the rain
ends. Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Monday night and
Tuesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
Radar site KRLX has a faulty component that is leading to higher
reflectivities than what should be observed. A part is on order
and will be replaced as soon as it arrives. Keep this in mind
today since there is some potential for severe weather.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW
NEAR TERM...TRM/JW
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JW

EQUIPMENT...



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