Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 290549
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
149 AM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm front lifts through overnight. Next cold front Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 137 AM Saturday...

Busy night so far with waves of convection moving west to east
across the central/northern portions of the CWA. Models taking
two different approaches with this...one camp transitioning
things north pretty quickly through the early morning hours, but
the other camp brings the activity to our west straight east
into I-64 corridor -- or just north. This seems like the better
forecast with nose of low level jet still in the region, so
have highest POPs through 12Z along and north of I64, then
transition activity farther north as the nose of the jet also
moves north. Maintain some isolated to scattered showers and
storms today and tonight...mainly in SE Ohio and also mountains
of WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

Very warm air mass in place overhead still on Sunday. Temps will
climb close to 90 again for a large portion of Southern through
Central West Virginia. There will be some potential for
thunderstorms to develop near max heating Sunday Afternoon, but
with fairly dry air aloft with decent Cap, have decided to keep
PoP at slight chance to low chance for now.

Strong cold front moves in on Monday and showers and storms are
likely to be widespread with this system. Strong anomalous low
level jet out ahead of the front with GEFS showing 850 mb winds
at 3 to 4 standard deviations above with about 60 knots
forecast. However, ensemble and operational guidance is in
fairly good agreement with the front entering the Ohio Valley
Monday morning which would limit severe potential. Will have to
keep an eye on how the forecast progresses the next couple of
days and if the front slows down there will certainly be
potential for severe storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 305 PM Friday...

Much cooler weather will push in behind the front, but it should
remain relatively dry until at least mid week. Forecast guidance
then becomes uncertain after that. Deep trough digs across
Central Plains Wednesday night into Thursday as surface low
ejects northeast out of the SE U.S. and into our region. This
could bring heavy rain to the area as upper trough closes off
into an upper low and lingers overhead into next weekend. Still
very low confidence in this scenario at this time being so late
in the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 143 AM Saturday...

Messy aviation situation across the northern half of the CWA
with waves of showers and thunderstorms drifting ENE. Overall,
only expecting some brief pockets of IFR in the stronger cells,
so did not include IFR in TAFs, however AMD tempos will be
needed if a stronger cell approaches a TAF site.

Main showers and storms should gradually shift north of area
later this morning with VFR and S to SW flow today into tonight.
Could still get some showers/storms across NW CWA and included
VCTS at PKB into this afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers and storms could vary.
May need more aggressive IFR vis in TAFs.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 04/29/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in showers and storms Monday into Monday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/MPK
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...MZ



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