Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
620
FXUS61 KRLX 201815
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
215 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance over the area slips southward on
Thursday. Weak high pressure builds through the weekend. Cold
front approaches by mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM Wednesday.

Scattered showers dot the area this afternoon, and some could
grow into run of the mill thunderstorms. This should all die
down this evening, leaving patchy cloud, but valley fog is still
likely to form and become dense once again by early Thursday
morning, before burning off by its usual mid morning time.

The upper level low shifts southward on Thursday, and so do the
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Have the chance only over
the central and southern mountains midday and afternoon, as
drier air starts to filter in from the northeast.

Temperatures and dew points looked good in light of the latest,
well converged guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...

Any lingering showers will dissipate Thursday night with
loss of heating. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions, with above normal
temperatures in the short term period. There is a slight possibility
of an isolated shower across the higher terrain during peak heating
during the period, but due to overall stable and dry conditions,
will likely be just cu. River valley fog expected in mornings.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...

Better chances for precipitation in the long term period, albeit
chances are not overly great. Maria will move north through the
Atlantic early next week, with clouds, and possibly enough moisture
spreading westward into the CWA for isold shower activity. Maria
will eventually be pushed farther to the east as the week
progresses, as a shortwave trough and surface cold front moves
through the midwest by Thursday, with showers possible. At this
point, any QPF in the long term period looks to remain minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 PM Wednesday...

Scattered showers dot the area, underneath a weak upper level
low. Some could grow into thunderstorms, but they will not
become that strong. The precipitation is expected to remain
scattered, so no explicit TAF mention is coded, although VCTS is
indicated. The precipitation will dissipate around sunset.

There will still be patchy cloud around tonight, associated with
the upper level low. However, valley fog is likely to form and
become dense overnight into Thursday morning, before burning
off by 14Z Thursday.

The upper level low will start to drift south Thursday, limiting
the chance for showers to the central and southern mountains of
WV.

Calm to light and variable surface flow through tonight,
northwest in the mountains, will become light north to northeast
throughout the area on Thursday. Light northwest flow aloft this
afternoon will become light north tonight, and then light
northeast on Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need amendments to add MVFR to IFR in
showers or storms this afternoon. Fog forecast for overnight
tonight into Thursday morning may need adjustments on timing
and density.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR in valley fog possible each morning through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.