Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 290752
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
252 AM EST MON DEC 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE FOR THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...CHANGING TO SNOW
SHOWERS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BY MID WEEK...WITH DRIER AND
COLDER CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESSY FORECAST TODAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHER
ELEVATION RAIN/DRIZZLE TODAY. TONIGHT THIS WILL TURN TO SNOW
SHOWERS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE
MIDDLE 40S TODAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 20S TO
LOWER 30S. WENT VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...MODELS SUGGEST AN ELONGATED WAVE NOTICEABLE
IN H500 VORTICITY MAXIMA TO MOVE ALOFT TUESDAY AND ANOTHER SIMILAR
WAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING VERY COLD AIR AS SEEN BY H850
TEMPERATURES REACHING MINUS EIGHT BY 18 TUESDAY UNDER COLD AIR
ADVECTION SUGGESTING A NON DIURNAL TREND. WENT WITH NEAR STEADY
COLD TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 30S LOWLANDS TO
THE UPPER 20S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. CAA CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER AROUND 1000 FEET WITH NO INVERSION.
EXPECT SOME CLEARING ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S
LOWLANDS...AND INTO THE SINGLY DIGITS HIGHEST ELEVATIONS BOTH
NIGHTS TUESDAYS AND WEDNESDAYS. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
THE COLD AIR COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

USED A BLEND OF MOS AND NAM GUIDANCE FOR DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM. A SURFACE
LOW APPROACHES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...WITH INCREASING POPS. HAVE
POPS MAXING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SLOWED DOWN OVERALL
PROGRESSION JUST A LITTLE BASED MAINLY ON THE GFS. RECENTLY THE
ECMWF HAD BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS...HOWEVER THE 12Z ECMWF HAS
MAINTAINED LITTLE CONSISTENCY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND WAS NOT USED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR TO AREAS OF LIFR EXPECTED THROUGH 15Z. AFTER 15Z IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MOUNTAIN WILL BE SLOWEST
CLEAR WITH SHOWERS/DRIZZLE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS WILL TURN TO
SNOW LIGHT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER NIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH WINDS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY:

FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE WIDESPREAD LIFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE
OVERNIGHT AND LASTING PAST 15Z.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         MON 12/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...FB







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