Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 061036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
636 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERS NEARBY TODAY...BEFORE MOVING
EAST SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO NEXT
WEEK...STARTING WITH A WARM FRONT THEN A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
THIS PERIOD. THIS IS LIKELY TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH TODAY...WITH A DECREASING CHANCE WESTWARD THROUGH THE
LOWLANDS. THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN LEAD TO GREATER COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHEN THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

EVEN THOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND ITS DISTANCE FROM
THE FORECAST AREA DO NOT CHANGE MUCH...THE TIGHTENING OF THE
HEIGHT GRADIENT AROUND IT RESULTS IN ABOUT A 100 M HEIGHT RISE AT
H5 BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND EVEN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES EAST AS A RESULT. THIS...AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WILL DRY OUT THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BY DAWN SATURDAY.

STILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING ALONG THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR DAWN SATURDAY THOUGH...IN
RESPONSE TO WARM AND POSITIVE THETA E ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WARM
FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.

RAISED HIGHS A BIT TODAY IN LIGHT OF LATEST GUIDANCE...AS
EASTWARD PUSH OF DRIER AIR APPEARS TO BE A BIT AHEAD OF PREVIOUS
MODEL GUIDANCE. LOWS TONIGHT ARE CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...MAY SEE A SLIGHT RISE IN THE WEST TOWARD DAWN SATURDAY
THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. UPPER LOW
ALONG THE COAST WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE AND GET KICKED OFF THE EAST
COAST AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCES APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL STALL OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...AND THE THREAT FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANY STORMS THAT FIRE UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE WEEKEND/START OF WORKWEEK.
HOWEVER...THIS DOES LITTLE TO CHANGE THE OVERALL PATTERN. THE NEXT
SYSTEM IS RIGHT ON ITS HEELS. ONCE AGAIN PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER SOGGY WEEK. WITH CLOUD COVER
AROUND...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TYPICALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES TODAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MVFR CIGS
CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL WV. AS A
RESULT...HAVE VFR FORECAST HTS AND PKB THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
VFR SAVE FOR MVFR CIGS AT TIMES ON THE MORNING CU EFFECT TODAY CKB
AND CRW. THE MOUNTAINS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MVFR INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR...WITH IFR AT BKW...VLIFR UNTIL MID MORNING.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AGAIN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WHERE THUNDER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
MAY VARY. BKW MAY GET DENSE FOG FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AS A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JB
AVIATION...TRM



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