Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 042338
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
738 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEW POINT GRADIENT REMAINS IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE MAP INDICATES A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS NE-SW
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY IS MORE OF A MOISTURE BOUNDARY
THAN TEMPERATURE...AS DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST OH COUNTIES
ARE IN THE LOW AND MID 50S WITH LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH.

A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR.
HOWEVER...EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO OOZE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT WITH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE AREA.

MODELS STILL INDICATE SOME STORMS COULD REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY WHERE
THE BEST MOISTURE REMAINS...SO HAVE SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIMITED TO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MET/MAV NUMBERS WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS MINT/MAXT NUMBERS...SO HAVE
GENERALLY ONLY MADE SOME TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
BIG STORY IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WITH IT. OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BOUNCE
AROUND WITH TRACK WITH GFS MOST UNSTABLE. FELT BEST COURSE OF
ACTION WAS TO STAY CLOSE TO ESEMBLES AND WPC WHICH TRACKS THE LOW
GENERALLY OVER THE REGION LATER THU AND INTO THU NIGHT. 3 AND 6
HR FFG IS REALLY HIGH...ON THE ORDER OF 3 INCHES IN NE KY TO 2.25
OVER N WV. WITH THE RECENT DRY SPELL AND SUBSEQUENT HIGH
FFG...WILL FORGO ANY MENTION IN HWO LET ALONE ANY WATCH ISSUANCE.
SYSTEM PULLS OUT EARLY FRIDAY WITH LINGERING LOW CLOUDS MIXING OUT
LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE OH VALLEY THIS WEEKEND
AMID A RELATIVELY WNW FLOW ALOFT. PATTERN TURNS MORE UNSETTLED
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER REAMPLIFICATION OF MEAN TROF.
GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL ADD A BIT MORE FOG AT HTS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WEDNESDAY DUE
TO THE LONE SHOWER THAT DAMPENDED THE VCNTY AROUND 23Z TUESDAY.
ALSO THOUGHT THE DEEP MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WOULD BE COOL ENOUGH FOR
SOME FOG...SO LOWERED THE VSBY AT ELKINS. THOUGHT DEW POINT SPREAD
AT 23Z WAS GREAT ENOUGH TO NOT GO AS THICK ON THE FOG AT KPKB
BEFORE DAWN.

THE SHOWERS AND STORMS S OF CRW...SHOULD WEAKEN WITH SUNSET...BUT
SOME LINGERING SHOWER POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z. LAYERED CLOUDS IN THE
SOUTH WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY 4 TO 8 THSD FT BKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT MAY
VARY FROM FCST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H =
HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M =
MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW:
TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/30
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JS/30
AVIATION...JSH/KTB


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