Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 191800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS LOW ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES
EAST. DRY...WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER. A COLD FRONT WITH
MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AND WARM ARE THE WORDS IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AND BUILDING RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. CIRRUS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH A SUNNY
SKY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TODAY...AND GUSTY WINDS DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING...ELECTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER...AS 10 HOUR FUELS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN RATHER DRY FROM RECENT
DRY SPELL. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY ALSO
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER DRY AIR TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS
TODAY...BUT COULD STILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING PEAK HEATING...SO
WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL SPS FOR SUNDAY
IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. FOR TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH E SLOPES
GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. INCORPORATED SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE
INCREASING GIVEN LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR
FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN
ALL...A STELLAR EASTER SUNDAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING FRONT FIRST HALF
OF TUESDAY. KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
WARMER MEX GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE
LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF GOING TOWARD WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. TEMPS
BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA. QPF
WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO CARRY AROUND A QUARTER OF RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH IT. EVERY LITTLE BIT WILL BE WELCOMED
THOUGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS WHERE IT HAS BEEN
UNUSUALLY VERY DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...THEN
BECOMING CALM. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SL








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