Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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909
FXUS64 KSHV 031802
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1202 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR conditions expected to prevail throughout the 18Z TAF
pd. Rain will continue throughout the pd as well...with brief pds
of improvement in flight categories possible where rain is light.
Ely/nely winds 12-18 kts with higher gusts will diminish in speed
and gradually back around to the n after sunset and continue
through the end of the pd. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1138 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SHRA remains widespread across the region this morning...although
some breaks are beginning to materialize over the wrn sections of
E TX as well as farther SW into Ecntrl and portions of SE TX. The
17Z sfc analysis depicts an inverted trough oriented SW to NE
along the SE TX coast into portions of SW and Cntrl LA. Strong
overrunning is already underway this morning with the KPOE VAD
indicating a 50kt SSE LLJ riding atop/N of this sfc trough over
Cntrl LA/SE TX...which has resulted a large area of moderate SHRA
/and the greater rain rates/ training from portions of Deep E TX
across much of N LA through the afternoon. Have not seen any
thunder this morning except along the immediate SE TX coast near
the sfc trough...but can/t rule out some isolated embedded thunder
across the Srn zones this afternoon although instability aloft remains
quite weak per the 12Z raobs.

The current forecast remains in good shape...but did remove
the heavy rainfall wording across portions of E TX given the
current radar trends and the more ewd position of the sfc trough
than earlier progged. Also made very minor tweaks to max temps
based on the current obs...with very little if any change to temps
through the afternoon. Thus far...storm totals of 3-4+ inches have
been recorded across much of Angelina County TX...with 2-3 inches
recorded across the surrounding area of Deep E TX. Since the
heavier/more concentrated rains are beginning to shift E of these
areas which have not received as much rain /generally 1-1.5
inches/ across Ncntrl LA...will continue to hold off on a Flash
Flood Watch and continue to monitor current radar trends/rain
rates...as they have not exceeded any more than 1/3-1/2 inch per
hour...falling over areas which can take the rains.

Will address rain chances for the remainder of the weekend and
into Monday in the afternoon discussion. Zone update already
out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  46  51  46 / 100  90  80  70
MLU  50  46  52  48 / 100 100  90  70
DEQ  47  45  52  44 / 100  60  30  40
TXK  47  44  50  44 / 100  80  50  50
ELD  47  46  49  46 / 100  90  70  60
TYR  50  46  53  46 / 100  80  60  80
GGG  49  46  52  46 / 100  90  70  80
LFK  50  50  54  50 / 100 100  90  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/15



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