Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 222044
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
244 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PREFRONTAL TROUGH ADVANCING INTO NE TX THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING WITH THIS TROUGH...TEMPS OVER NE TX HAVE RISEN
TO AROUND 70. COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF I-35...DRY SLOTTING AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL MINIMIZE ANY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION ACROSS NE
TX/SE OK THIS EVE...ALTHOUGH MAY INTERACT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
FURTHER EAST FOR POSSIBLE LIMITED CONVECTION. A SLOWER MOVG FRONT
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW TSTMS TO ALSO DEVELOP...MAINLY OVER NORTH
CENTRAL LA ON EARLY TUE. SFC LOW TO MOVE WELL EAST OF MS RIVER
VALLEY...WHILE UPPER LVL SYSTEM DIGS SWD AS MAIN UPPER LOW CLOSES
OFF OVER MO/IA TONIGHT...WITH OVERRUNNING RAIN WITH DEEP SW FLOW
OVER SHALLOW COOLER AIR MASS PREVAILS ON TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MAY LINGER THRU DAYBREAK WED...WITH A FEW
FLURRIES MIXED WITH LIGHT RAIN NOT OUT OF QUESTION SO LEFT IN 20
POPS. HOWEVER...ATTM APPEARS THAT MOISTURE MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT
IN ICE CRYSTAL FORMATION LAYER. ONCE CLOUDS FINALLY CLEAR OUT OF
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO FALL TO NEAR FRZG FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING COULD HAMPER THE
EFFORT TO REACH FRZG. A DEEPER COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE FRIDAY.
MOISTURE LIMITED SO FOR NOW WILL JUST PUT 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AREAWIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND COOL WILL BE ON TAP FOR NEXT
WEEKEND./VII/.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1207 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 23/18Z...CURRENT IFR CIGS WILL
GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. TEXAS
TERMINAL SITES WILL IMPROVE FIRST...FOLLOWED BY THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA AFTER 21Z. A WARM FRONT CROSSING THE AREA WILL SHIFT
SURFACE WIND TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL SHIFT WIND TO NORTH. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE HIGHEST PRIOR TO THE WARM FRONT WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KTS AND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS. AFTER FROPA...WIND
SHOULD DIMINISH TO 10 KTS OR LESS. AFTER 09Z...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
SPREADING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING MVFR CIGS AND A CHANCE OF
RAIN. ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
IFR CIGS AND VSBYS MAY REDEVELOP IN AREAS RECEIVING RAIN EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  51  38  51  33 /  20  40  40  10   0
MLU  52  55  42  53  32 /  30  70  60  10   0
DEQ  43  48  32  49  29 /  20  30  20  10   0
TXK  47  49  36  49  31 /  20  40  20  10   0
ELD  48  50  38  51  31 /  30  40  40  10   0
TYR  48  49  37  50  34 /  20  40  10  10   0
GGG  48  49  37  51  33 /  20  40  20  10   0
LFK  51  53  38  52  34 /  20  50  20  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







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