Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 281632
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1132 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.AVIATION...
A spring storm to develop across the four corners area of the
desert SW this Friday. This storm to then move E into the Great
Plains states this weekend. Strong warm air advection as well as
deep tropical moisture advected from the Gulf of Mexico to result
in MVFR conditions during tonight through Saturday. Also SCT TSTMS
to develop during Saturday afternoon with conditions deteriorating
to IFR in TSTMS. /VIII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1033 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Cloud cover to persist across the region through the remainder of
the day as a warm front pushes north across the region. Frontal
boundary currently north of Interstate 20 with temperatures south
of the front in the mid to upper 70s and north of the front in
the lower to mid 60s. GFS MOS guidance a little robust on high
temperatures today with LFK advertised in the mid 90s. Seems a
little too unrealistic with same guidance maintaining ovc
conditions. However, NAM may be a little underdone with forecast
high temps in the mid 80s. Current forecast of around 90 seems
reasonable at this time. Otherwise, a lake wind advisory is in
effect for much of the region as south winds increase behind warm
front. Forecast is on track at this time. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 720 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 28/12Z TAF period, MVFR and occasional IFR cigs blanket
all sites this morning as southerly flow increases with a warm
front advancing north of I-20 as of this TAF issuance. These cigs
will linger throughout the morning, slowly lifting and scattering
to VFR into the afternoon with southerly winds increasing up to
15-20 kts with gusts near or exceeding 25-30 kts. Any convection
that is able to develop this afternoon and evening will be very
isolated so have held off any mention in the TAFs at this time.
Cigs will drop back to MVFR around 29/03Z as moisture advection
increases ahead of a slow moving frontal boundary to the west.
Gusty south winds will maintain through the overnight period as
the pressure gradient holds steady in advance of the approaching
front.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  75  87  61 /  10  20  50  90
MLU  86  74  88  70 /  10  20  50  70
DEQ  81  72  81  57 /  20  40  90 100
TXK  84  74  85  60 /  20  20  70 100
ELD  85  74  86  65 /  10  20  50  90
TYR  89  75  86  57 /  10  20  60  90
GGG  89  75  86  58 /  10  20  50  90
LFK  90  76  88  61 /  10  20  50  90

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ070>073.

     Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning
     for ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning
     for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

08


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