Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 231639
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1139 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL OVER THE TERMINAL SITES AND
AIRPORTS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
ENDING 24/18Z. HIGH PRESSURE ON THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE
PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS. MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 25 KFT WILL BE
AFFECTING THE AREA...RANGING FROM SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT TIMES. A
FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY SPREAD WEST OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 45 HND FEET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST TO
EAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 23/23Z...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE...
AND THEN MOSTLY EAST LESS THAN 8 KNOTS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTER 24/14Z.
/06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
GOING FCST FOR THE REST OF TODAY LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK. ONLY MADE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OUR TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW AVERAGE WITH STILL MANY HOLD OUTS IN
THE 60S...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...WE EXPECT
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT RIGHT ABOUT DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...WE ARE SEEING SOME CIRRUS ON NW FLOW ALOFT FROM A
STORM COMPLEX IN THE MID AND HIGH PLAINS. OUR SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT
OR CALM AND DECOUPLED FROM DEEP ENE FLOW EXTENDING UP TO AROUND
25KFT. DUE TO A COUPLE OF FORMATTING DIFFERENCES WITH SKY
CONDITION BETWEEN THE ZONES AND REC PRODUCTS FOR CONSISTENCY...WE
HAVE CORRECTED AND RESENT THE ZONES. SO...WHILE NOT RECORD
COOL WEATHER THIS IS A MUCH WELCOMED CHANGE WITH THE SEASON.

OVERALL...WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT MUCH CHANGE IN THIS TYPICAL FALL DRY
PATTERN WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IN THE OFFING FOR MOST LOCALES
UNTIL THE WEEKEND AND EVEN THEN GENERALLY ONLY THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA...WHICH IS PERHAPS EVEN LESS LIKELY LOOKING AT THE NEW
GFS...BUT THE EURO IS STILL MUCH MORE OPTIMISTIC FOR EVEN AREA
WIDE QPF LATE SATURDAY IN SUNDAY AT HEIGHTS FALL IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK PLAINS UPPER LOW CAUGHT UNDER THE BIG RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO CANADA. MAV/MEX REASONABLE AND BLENDED INTO THIS PACKAGE. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  57  87  62  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  82  55  87  61  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  81  49  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  81  53  84  60  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  80  52  84  57  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  84  57  85  61  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  85  55  86  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  85  57  87  62  89 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




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