Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 200909
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
409 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STILL SEEING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX AND NCNTRL LA...FROM CONVECTION THAT
AFFECTED THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FARTHER TO THE
W...11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXTENSIVE AC CANOPY OVER
MUCH OF N TX...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MCV CENTERED JUST W OF
DFW. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT N TODAY INTO SRN AND
CNTRL OK...AS UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF BEGINS TO
BUILD N ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY. SHOULD AGAIN SEE A SEABREEZE
DEVELOP AND WORK ITS WAY INLAND INTO DEEP E TX/SRN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE...DIMINISHING BY MID-EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...WITH A WEAKER SEABREEZE EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE
850-700MB STEERING WINDS BECOME MORE WSW OVER ECNTRL TX AND THE
WRN HALF OF LA.

THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PROGGED TO AMPLIFY N AND INTENSIFY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS BY FRIDAY...THUS SUPPRESSING ANY
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND RESULTING IN MAX TEMPS
NUDGING EVER SO CLOSER TO THE CENTURY MARK. TYPICALLY THIS TIME OF
YEAR...THE HOTTEST TEMPS WITH THIS RIDGING IS ASSOCIATED NEAR THE
700MB RIDGE CENTER...WHICH WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR OR AT A SURPLUS OVER THESE
AREAS...WHICH MAY HELP OFFSET THE COMPRESSIONAL HEATING BENEATH
THE RIDGE CENTER. BUT THIS MAY ALSO MAINTAIN HIGHER DEWPOINTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON DESPITE MIXING...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES
NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER PORTIONS OF S AR/NCNTRL LA.
HAVE MAINTAINED MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S AREAWIDE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH DRIER SOIL MOISTURE OVER E TX CONTRIBUTING TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDICES OVER THIS AREA.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS REMAIN PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE E INTO THE OH/TN VALLIES BY MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH
WEAKNESSES ALOFT DRIFTING W BENEATH THE RIDGE OVER SRN MS/LA. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NCNTRL LA/DEEP E TX MONDAY...AND AREAWIDE TUESDAY
ONCE THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT FARTHER E OF THE AREA. THE PROGS
ARE SHOWING EVEN MORE SCT CONVECTION OVER THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT PREFER TO SEE MODEL PERSISTENCE BEFORE INCREASING
POPS TO CHANCE THIS FAR OUT. BUT THE TREND IS FOR THE HOTTEST
TEMPS OF THE SUMMER TO BE SHORT-LIVED...BEFORE TEMPS EASE BACK
SOME NEXT WEEK WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE RIDGE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  75  96  76  97 /   5  10   5   5   0
MLU  94  74  96  74  97 /   5   5   5   5   0
DEQ  94  71  95  72  96 /   5   0   0   0   0
TXK  94  74  96  74  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  94  73  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  95  76  97  76  97 /   5  10   5   5   0
GGG  95  75  96  75  97 /   5  10   5   5   0
LFK  95  75  97  75  98 /  20  20  20  20   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15




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