Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 031727
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1127 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION
NOW...ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAK RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
LONG WAVE TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. AN AREA OF STRATUS
HAS SETTLED SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN SD PLAINS...WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER NORTHEAST WY AND THE
BLACK HILLS. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER NORTHWEST
SD TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHERN SD.
WINDS ARE MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA...WITH SKIES REMAINING OR BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH
THE DAY. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
SD PLAINS. REMOVED MORNING POP CHANCES OVER THE BLACK HILLS...BUT
BASICALLY LEFT POPS AS IS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE THE BLACK HILLS AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...
INCREASING THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF WY AND
NEB TONIGHT. THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER MAINLY NORTHEAST WY AND FAR SOUTHERN SD LATE TODAY AND
THIS EVENING. THE STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

UPPER WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS...PUSHING THE WEAKENING
SHOWERS EASTWARD. BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO
PUT THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. SURFACE LOW IS OVER SOUTHEASTERN
ND...AND SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE CWA. WINDS
ARE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10KTS...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND LOWER
60S.

THIS MORNING WILL BE DRY...EXCEPT FOR A FEW POSSIBLE LATE MORNING
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS. UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE WILL BE AROUND 2000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY...THE BLACK HILLS...AND
FAR SOUTHERN SD...WITH LAPSE RATES IN THOSE AREAS AROUND 7 C/KM.
WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS...MAY BE ONE OR TWO STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS IN THOSE AREAS. OVERALL...INGREDIENTS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND TO THE
NORTHEAST AS WAVE PUSHES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGHS TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 70S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S.

COLD CANADIAN HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON
THURSDAY. EAST/SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW WILL BRING IN MOISTURE...AND
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WY AND SOUTHWESTERN SD WITH
IMPRESSIVE CAPE AND MARGINAL SHEAR DEVELOPING THERE BY 21Z...ALONG
WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. PRECIPITABLE
WATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT REMAINS AROUND AN INCH AND A
QUARTER...AND SO STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY AGGRAVATE FLOODING
CONDITIONS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 237 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

CLOSED UPPER LOW EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SPLIT FLOW WITH AN
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM REINFORCING A LL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. EJECTING IMPULSES
EMANATING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AS WELL AS PASSING
NORTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL SUPPORT AN ACTIVE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE
REGION AS LL ESE FLOW RETAINS APPRECIABLE LL MOISTURE INVOF THE
REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR DAILY CHANCES FOR SHRA/TS IN MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE FA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MEAN FORECAST
MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR FRI/SAT AS THE BEST PERIODS FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES GIVEN THE EJECTION OF TWO APPRECIABLE JET
STREAKS. RETAINED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THIS PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY
LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ESP GIVEN FASTER FLOW
ALOFT WITH SUFFICIENT LL MOISTURE AND ESE UPSLOPE FLOW. SEASONAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS ON TRACK THOROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2015

AN AREA OF MVFR CIGS FROM NORTHWEST SD TO SOUTH CENTRAL SD WILL
LIFT INTO A VFR SC/CU DECK THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF AREA WILL SEE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. -SHRA/-TSRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST WY/HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASING SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE ALONG
WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...IFR CIGS/VSBYS
OVER/NEAR THE BLACK HILLS AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOWS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY UPSLOPE.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...26
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON


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