Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 160030
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Apr 16 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 16-Apr 18 2014 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 16-Apr 18 2014

            Apr 16     Apr 17     Apr 18
00-03UT        2          2          3
03-06UT        1          2          2
06-09UT        1          2          2
09-12UT        1          2          2
12-15UT        1          1          1
15-18UT        1          1          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          3          3

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 16-Apr 18 2014

              Apr 16  Apr 17  Apr 18
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 16-Apr 18 2014

              Apr 16        Apr 17        Apr 18
R1-R2           50%           50%           50%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1-R2 (Minor to Moderate) radio blackouts exist
for the forecast period (Apr 16-18) due to increasing complexity and
flare activity from multiple spot groups on the visible disk.



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