Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 141231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Feb 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 14-Feb 16 2016 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 14-Feb 16 2016

            Feb 14     Feb 15     Feb 16
00-03UT        3          5 (G1)     3
03-06UT        3          5 (G1)     4
06-09UT        3          4          3
09-12UT        2          4          3
12-15UT        2          4          2
15-18UT        2          3          2
18-21UT        3          3          1
21-00UT        5 (G1)     2          2

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are expected late on 14 Feb
into early 15 Feb due to the anticipated arrival of the 11 Feb CME.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 14-Feb 16 2016

              Feb 14  Feb 15  Feb 16
S1 or greater   15%     15%     15%

Rationale: A slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms exists due to the flare potential and position of Region 2497.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Feb 13 2016 1524 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 14-Feb 16 2016

              Feb 14        Feb 15        Feb 16
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            5%

Rationale: A chance for R1 (Minor) radio blackouts exists due to the
flare potential of Region 2497.


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