Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 210030
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Oct 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 21-Oct 23 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 21-Oct 23 2014

            Oct 21     Oct 22     Oct 23
00-03UT        5 (G1)     3          4
03-06UT        4          3          3
06-09UT        3          4          2
09-12UT        3          3          3
12-15UT        3          3          3
15-18UT        3          3          3
18-21UT        3          2          3
21-00UT        3          3          3

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at G1-minor storm
levels for the beginning of day one (21 Oct) with the initial CH
effects. Days two and three (22-23 Oct) are forecast to see enhanced
conditions as well, but below G1-Minor levels, as CH conditions
continue.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 21-Oct 23 2014

              Oct 21  Oct 22  Oct 23
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton
enhancement at or above the S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm level over
the next three days (21-23 Oct) as Region 2192 moves into a more
favorable position on the solar disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Oct 20 2014 1637 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 21-Oct 23 2014

              Oct 21        Oct 22        Oct 23
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: Solar activity is likely to be moderate with M-class (R1-R2
(Minor-Moderate)) flare activity and a slight chance for X-class (R3 or
greater) flare activity over the next three days (21-23 Oct) with Region
2192 being the likely source of solar activity.


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