Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 180032
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Oct 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 18-Oct 20 2017 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 18-Oct 20 2017

            Oct 18     Oct 19     Oct 20
00-03UT        2          2          2
03-06UT        3          3          1
06-09UT        2          2          1
09-12UT        2          2          1
12-15UT        2          2          1
15-18UT        2          2          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 18-Oct 20 2017

              Oct 18  Oct 19  Oct 20
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 18-Oct 20 2017

              Oct 18        Oct 19        Oct 20
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


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