Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 161231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Dec 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 16-Dec 18 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 16-Dec 18 2017

            Dec 16     Dec 17     Dec 18
00-03UT        0          2          4
03-06UT        0          2          5 (G1)
06-09UT        1          2          5 (G1)
09-12UT        1          2          4
12-15UT        1          2          3
15-18UT        1          3          3
18-21UT        2          3          3
21-00UT        2          4          4

Rationale: 1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are anticipated on 18 Dec
as influence from a positive polarity coronal hole disturbs the
near-Earth space environment.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 16-Dec 18 2017

              Dec 16  Dec 17  Dec 18
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 16-Dec 18 2017

              Dec 16        Dec 17        Dec 18
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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