Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 272147
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TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-282000-

Drought Information Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
447 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2017

...SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

Dry conditions have developed across portions of the region after
a fairly dry spring. The lack of rainfall has continued into
summer. Locations from San Antonio to Austin saw well below
average rainfall in May and June, which is typically one of the
wettest periods of the year. Summer is generally dry across the
region and this combined with the dry period in late spring has
produced abnormally dry to severe drought conditions. The majority
of South Central Texas has not seen significant drought
conditions for the last few years. After two years of average to
above average rainfall area lakes and reservoirs remain in good
shape with levels the highest that have been observed in several
years, despite the recent lack of rainfall and typical high summer
evaporation rates. Many localities have implemented county-wide
burn bans due to continuing dry conditions. Several counties have
seen grass and brush fires the past month and officials are
expecting more if wetting rains are not observed.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting ENSO neutral
conditions will prevail into the northern hemisphere fall and
winter. Even though La Nina and El Nino events have significant
impacts across South Texas, other circulations across the globe
help drive weather patterns too, so we should not just be looking
at one pattern, but others as well to potentially provide
rainfall for the  region.

The US Drought Monitor (USDM) valid July 25th and issued on July
27th indicated drought conditions getting worse across portions of
South Central Texas. Abnormally dry (D0) to Severe (D2) drought
conditions were present across South Central Texas. The driest
locations were located along and to the east of Interstate 35.

Currently 25 percent of the state is in Abnormally dry (D0) to
Severe (D2) drought. None of the state is currently in Exceptional
(D4) drought status.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

Fire danger was moderate. If wetting rainfall is not observed then
fire danger threats will increase.

As of July 27th, there were 26 counties with county-wide burn bans
in effect across south Central Texas. There were 7 counties with
no burn bans currently in effect.

Counties that currently have burn bans in place:

Atascosa
Bastrop
Bexar
Blanco
Burnet
Caldwell
Comal
Dimmit
Edwards
Fayette
Frio
Gillespie
Guadalupe
Hays
Kendall
Kerr
Kinney
Lee
Llano
Medina
Real
Travis
Uvalde
Val Verde
Williamson
Wilson

Counties currently without county-wide burn bans:

Bandera
DeWitt
Gonzales
Karnes
Lavaca
Maverick
Zavala

Residents in all counties should contact their local city or
county web site, Judge`s office or Fire Marshall before deciding
to conduct any type of outdoor burning as burn bans may be issued
before the next update of this drought statement.

The July 27th County Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) showed the
following KBDI values:


300-400      400-500     500-600      600-700

Val Verde    Dewitt      Atascosa     Bastrop
             Edwards     Bandera      Bexar
             Gillespie   Blanco       Caldwell
             Karnes      Burnet       Comal
             Kerr        Dimmit       Fayette
             Llano       Gonzales     Frio
             Real        Kendall      Guadalupe
                         Kinney       Hays
                         Lavaca       Lee
                         Maverick     Zavala
                         Medina
                         Travis
                         Uvalde
                         Williamson
                         Wilson


The Texas Forest Service uses the KBDI as a means for relating
current and recent weather conditions to potential or expected
fire behavior. The KBDI is a numerical index calculated daily for
each county. Each number is an estimate of the amount of
precipitation, in hundredths of an inch, needed to bring the soil
back to saturation. The index ranges from zero to 800, with zero
representing a saturated soil and 800 a completely dry soil.
Remember, that fire danger can change quickly from one day to
another as winds and relative humidity vary.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

The Texas Crop and Weather Report issued by Texas A&M reported hot
and dry weather with some spotty rainfall ranging from 0.2 to 0.6
inches, which improved ranges in portions of the region. Corn
harvest continued and grain and sorghum harvest was in full steam.
Winter grain fields were ready for planting. Some Bermudagrass
fields experienced damage from early infestations of fall
armyworms, however, damage was minimal due to rapid response of
landowners. Due to drought, ponds were drying. Livestock continued
to do well, but grazing conditions deteriorated in areas without
rain.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

The next several days are expected to see little precipitation and
above average temperatures.

Precipitation from January 1, 2017 to Midnight July 26, 2017 and
departure from normal:

                   2017        Normal    Departure      Percent
                 Rainfall     to Date   from Normal    of Normal

AUSTIN MABRY      16.06        19.46       -3.40          83%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM  18.27        20.41       -2.41          90%
SAN ANTONIO       13.62        18.56       -4.94          73%
DEL RIO           14.21        11.06       +3.15         128%

For July to date, Del Rio has received 0.66 of an inch of rain.
This is 0.85 of an inch below the normal of 1.51 inches. The
average temperature for July to date is 87.2 degrees. This is 1.4
degrees above the normal of 85.8 degrees.

For July to date, San Antonio International Airport has received
0.15 of an inch of rain. This is 2.30 inches below the normal of
2.45 inches. The average temperature at the San Antonio
International Airport to date is 87.2 degrees. This is 2.8 degrees
above the normal of 84.4 degrees.

For July to date, Austin Mabry has received 0.23 of an inch of rain.
This is 1.37 inches below the normal of 1.60 inches. The average
temperature at Austin Mabry for July to date is 88.7 degrees. This
is 3.8 degrees above the normal of 84.9 degrees.

For July to date, Austin Bergstrom International Airport has
received 1.06 inches of rain. This is 1.11 inches below the normal
of 2.17 inches. The average temperature at the Austin Bergstrom
International Airport for July to date is 86.7 degrees. This is
3.3 degrees above the normal of 83.4 degrees.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

The latest Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8 to 14 day outlook
issued July 26 and valid August 3rd through August 9th was
indicating stronger signals for near to slightly below average
temperatures and above average precipitation.

The longer range outlook for August 2017 through February 2018
created on July 20th was indicating stronger signals for above
average temperatures and above average precipitation.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

Late winter and early spring saw average to above average
precipitation. In early May precipitation became less frequent
across the region. This is also one of the wettest periods of the
year. This lack of rainfall began to get worse with increasing
temperatures and drought conditions began to develop.

The 7 day stream flow averages were normal (25-75 percent) with a
few locations seeing averages much below (less than 10 percent).


RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF July 27th...

Below is a list of reservoirs with the latest elevations and
normal pools.

              Conservation Pool    Latest Elevation    Difference
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

Lake Amistad        1117                1085.3           -31.7
Medina Lake         1064.2              1056.0            -8.2
Canyon Lake          909                 907.5            -1.5
Lake Georgetown      791                 782.7            -8.3
Lake Buchanan       1020                1017.1            -2.9
Lake Travis          681                 674.1            -6.9

Restrictions...

The San Antonio Water System (SAWS) is currently in Stage 1 water
restrictions.

Latest Readings from the Edwards Aquifer:

 Current      2016 Level   Departure    July   Departure from
  Level      on this date  from 2016   Average       Average

 654.5 FT      663.9 FT    -9.4 FT     663.3 FT      -5.8 FT

Many communities across South Central Texas continue to have
water restrictions in place due to lack of consistent rainfall.

The Barton Springs Edwards Aquifer Conservation District is
currently in no drought status.

Location          Current Water Restrictions

Fredericksburg            Stage 3
New Braunfels             Stage 1
San Marcos  Stage 1
Uvalde                    Stage 1
Austin                    Conservation Stage
Kerrville                 Year round conservation measures

All cities continue to warn residents that stricter restrictions
could return at any time if drier conditions develop.

Locations that do not currently have mandatory restrictions
continue to strongly promote year round water conservation.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

This product will be issued again on August 25, 2017 or sooner if
conditions warrant.
&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

For further information on the drought impacting South Central
Texas, please visit the following web addresses.

Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service:
weather.gov/austin
weatehr.gov/sanantonio
weatehr.gov/ewx

Climate Prediction Center:
cpc.ncep.noaa/gov

U.S. Drought Monitor:
droughtmonitor.unl.edu

Office of the Texas State Climatologist:
climatexas.tamu.edu

United States Geologic Survey (USGS):
water.usgs.gov

United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE):
swf.usace.army.mil

International BOundary and Water Commission:
ibwc.state/gov

Acknowledgments...

The drought monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA`s
National Weather Service, National Climatic Data Center, the USDA,
State and Regional Center Climatologist and the National Drought
Mitigation Center. Information for this statement has been
gathered from NWS and FAA Observation sites, State Cooperative
Extension Service, the USDA, USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

If you have any questions or comments about this Drought
Information Statement, please contact...

National Weather Service
2090 Airport Road
New Braunfels Texas 78130
830-606-3617 Press 2

$$


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