Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

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AXGM70 PGUM 200110
DGTGUM
PMZ181-030200-
MAJURO-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
1100 AM CHST THU JUL 20 2017

...THE EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN
MARSHALL ISLANDS BUT SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED...

SYNOPSIS...
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH SUMMER INTO
EARLY FALL. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF MICRONESIA THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS...BUT WILL VACILLATE BETWEEN WEAK AND MODERATE
INTENSITIES. IN AUGUST AND SEPTEMBER...PERIODS OF MONSOON WEATHER
WITH HEAVY RAINS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE
WESTERN MICRONESIA AND PENETRATE INTO CENTRAL MICRONESIA.

VERY DRY WEATHER REMAINS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N FROM THE DATE LINE
WESTWARD OVER THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. FAIRLY NORMAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN
REPORTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MARSHALL ISLANDS. THE REST OF
MICRONESIA HAS HAD SUFFICIENT RAIN TO AVERT DROUGHT. MOST OF THE
FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING KAPINGAMARANGI...KOSRAE...
NUKUORO...AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU HAVE HAD HEAVIER RAINFALL
PRIMARILY FROM AN ACTIVE TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE.

THE DEVELOPMENT AND WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
IN THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAS BEGUN...BUT THE
PROCESS WAS ABOUT A MONTH LATER THAN NORMAL. THESE WESTWARD MOVING
DISTURBANCES ARE NEEDED TO HELP BRING EARLY TO MID SUMMER RAINS TO
THE NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA. KWAJALEIN AND WOTJE HAVE RECENTLY
BENEFITED FROM THOSE RAINS.

THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
INDICATES THAT UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS IS IN SHORT-
TERM AND LONG-TERM EXTREME DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). WOTJE
ATOLL AND NEARBY ATOLLS ARE IN LONG-TERM SEVERE DROUGHT (DROUGHT
LEVEL 2 OF 4). KWAJALEIN AND NEARBY ATOLLS HAVE IMPROVED TO A RATING
OF D-NOTHING.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...
ON APRIL 24...THE PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS
DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY FOR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS...AND THIS
WAS EXTENDED THROUGH THE END OF JUNE.

FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS...
SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS SHOWED ONLY SPOTTY TRADE-
WIND SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. EXTREME
DROUGHT IS AFFECTING UTIRIK AND OTHER NORTHERN AND WESTERN ATOLLS
NORTH OF KWAJALEIN. THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALLS WILL REMAIN DRY IN
THE COMING WEEKS...BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED. ISLANDS ALONG
AND NORTH OF 10N SUCH AS UTIRIK...RONGELAP...BIKINI...AILUK...AND
ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM
DROUGHT. SOME PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO AFFECT KWAJALEIN...
WOTHO...MALOELAP...UJAE...WOTJE AND LIKIEP AND NEIGHBORING ATOLLS.
SUFFICIENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED FOR MAJURO...ARNO...NAMU...
JALUIT AND AILINGLAPLAP...AND THESE LOCATIONS APPEAR TO HAVE HAD
ADEQUATE MONTHLY RAINFALL INTO JULY TO AVERT DROUGHT IMPACTS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE
THAT CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST INTO THE FALL.
CLIMATE MODELS ARE INDICATING A NEAR EQUAL CHANCE FOR A CONTINUATION
OF ENSO-NEUTRAL OR A TRANSITION TO EL NINO BY OCTOBER. ANY 2017 EL
NINO SHOULD NOT BE STRONG. CONFIDENCE ON THE COMPUTER MODEL OUTPUT
HAS IMPROVED OVER THAT FROM THE SPRING. EASTERN MICRONESIAN ISLANDS
NORTH OF 10N ARE STILL EXPERIENCING DROUGHT...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES IN THE TUTT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AND MOVING WEST AND
THIS SHOULD ENHANCE RAINFALL FOR EASTERN MICRONESIA.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  JAN   FEB   MAR   APR   MAY   JUN    JUL    JUL %
                                                      (1-18) NORMAL

WOTJE             0.08  4.48  0.99  5.23  1.14  8.86   4.75    190
UTIRIK            0.63  MSG   MSG  TRACE  1.38  1.60   0.98     36
AILINGALAPLAP    12.75  7.39  7.76  9.82  2.82  9.45   6.32     70
JALUIT            9.94 13.50 11.23  9.58  2.33  5.41   5.81     86
MAJURO           17.65  7.59 13.07 10.36  4.93 13.03   7.23    104
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE   9.00  5.60  1.07  3.44  5.20 10.80   4.32     78

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL
MODERATE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS. EVAPORATION CAUSED BY THE PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS BLOWING
ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD ALSO HELP OFFSET AND MODERATE THE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...
RAINFALL FOR AREAS NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK)
IS EXPECTED TO BE A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND
A HALF INCH UP TO ONE INCH THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. RAINFALL SOUTH
OF 10 NORTH (KWAJALEIN TO WOTJE) SHOULD BE NEAR ONE INCH DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS AND UP TO TWO INCHES THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MAJURO AND MOST
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS SHOULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
NEXT 10 DAYS.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT INDICATES THAT UTIRIK...ENEWETAK...
AILUK...WOTJE...AND MEJIT HAVE OPERATING REVERSE OSMOSIS (RO)
SYSTEMS. DESPITE THESE SYSTEMS...LOCAL VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES
WILL SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT. LOCAL WELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SALTY.
THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED GUIDANCE FOR WATER
CONSERVATION AND GOOD HYGIENE.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE
THURSDAY 3 AUGUST 2017 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY
TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL
DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT
INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...NWS WFO
GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT
CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE PACIFIC
ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
CORAL REEF BLEACHING ALERT AND WARNING AREAS HAVE EXPANDED FROM THE
PHILIPPINES TO NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS. WATCH AREAS EXTEND
FARTHER NORTHEAST BETWEEN 20N AND 30N TO THE DATE LINE AND BETWEEN
5N AND 5S TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE. THIS INCLUDES CHUUK...POHNPEI AND
KOSRAE STATES AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE
NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT
HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE
PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH
INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM
...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL
OFFICES...THE NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM
AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...
WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-
0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS)

SIMPSON/GUARD

$$



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