Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
200 PM CDT THU MAY 15 2014 /100 PM MDT MAY 15 2014/

...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...

SYNOPSIS...

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM)...ISSUED IN PARTNERSHIP BETWEEN THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER...USDA...AND NWS ON 13
MAY...SHOWS DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.  IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...EXTREME NORTHWEST
EDDY COUNTY WAS IN EXTREME DROUGHT.  A LARGER PORTION OF NORTHWEST
EDDY COUNTY...AS WELL AS NORTHEAST LEA COUNTY...WERE IN SEVERE
DROUGHT.  THE REST OF THESE COUNTIES WERE EITHER IN MODERATE DROUGHT
OR ABNORMALLY DRY.  IMPACTS OF SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
INCLUDE LIKELY CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES ...WATER SHORTAGES...AND WATER
RESTRICTIONS.  IMPACTS OF MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS INCLUDE SOME
DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES.  IN WEST TEXAS...NORTHERN SCURRY
COUNTY WAS IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.  THE REST OF THE COUNTY...AS WELL
AS BORDEN...HOWARD...AND MITCHELL COUNTIES WERE IN EXTREME
DROUGHT...AS WAS SOUTHEAST REAGAN COUNTY.  THE REST OF WEST TEXAS
RANGED FROM SEVERE DROUGHT GENERALLY EAST OF THE PECOS TO NO DROUGHT
IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS/DIABLO PLATEAU.

RAINFALL OVER THE PAST MONTHS HAS BEEN MODEST ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AVERAGING LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.  WATER
SHORTAGES REMAIN...AND MANDATORY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
AS OF 15 MAY...BURN BANS ARE IN EFFECT EVERYWHERE IN WEST TEXAS
EXCEPT
BORDEN...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
REAGAN...REEVES...SCURRY...AND TERRELL COUNTIES.

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)
AS A SYSTEM FOR RELATING CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED FIRE BEHAVIOR.  IT IS A NUMERICAL INDEX
CALCULATED DAILY.  EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE SOIL
BACK TO SATURATION.  THE INDEX RANGES FROM 0 TO 800...WITH 0
REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.  AS OF
14 MAY...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX SHOWED VALUES RANGING FROM
NEAR 300 IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 700 IN UPPER COLORADO
VALLEY.  THE 400 TO 600 RANGE IS TYPICAL OF LATE SUMMER AND EARLY
FALL.  IN THIS RANGE...LOWER LITTER AND DUFF LAYERS CONTRIBUTE TO
FIRE INTENSITY AND WILL BURN ACTIVELY.  NOTE THAT FIRE DANGER CAN
CHANGE QUICKLY FROM DAY TO DAY AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE ADVISES TO WATCH OUT FOR KEY CRITICAL
WEATHER THRESHOLDS OF WINDS ABOVE 15 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW
25 PERCENT.  WHEN THESE THRESHOLDS ARE MET OR EXCEEDED...FIRE DANGER
WILL BE ELEVATED.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

ACCORDING TO THE TEXAS CROP WEATHER REPORT ISSUED 13 MAY BY THE
TEXAS A&M AGRICULTURE PROGRAM...IN WEST TEXAS...WINDS ABOVE 50 MPH
COUPLED WITH DRY CONDITIONS MADE FOR EXTREMELY HIGH WILDFIRE DANGER.
COOLER TEMPERATURES EARLIER IN THE WEEK GAVE WAY TO HIGHS TOPPING
100 DEGREES.  SOME LIGHT AND SPOTTY PRECIPITATION WAS QUICKLY DRIED
OUT BY THE HIGH WINDS.  FARMERS CONTINUED TO PREPARE TO PLANT
COTTON.  SUNFLOWER PLANTING WAS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETED SOON.
LANDOWNERS CONTINUED TO PROVIDE SUPPLEMENTAL FEED FOR LIVESTOCK AND
WILDLIFE.  THEY WERE ALSO FINISHING SHEARING AND EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SHIPPING ANIMALS SOON.

IN THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE REGION HAD VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND GUSTY WINDS/BLOWING DIRT.  COTTON
PLANTING WAS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO HIGH GEAR WITHIN A WEEK.  WIND
AND HIGH TEMPERATURES DRIED OUT FORAGES THAT WERE TRYING TO GROW
WITH THE SNOW MOISTURE RECEIVED A FEW MONTHS AGO.  RANGELAND AND
PASTURES WERE DECLINING.  SOME LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS WERE MOVING
CATTLE TO DEFERRED PASTURES...OR INCREASING SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING
WHERE THAT OPTION WAS NOT AVAILABLE.  WINTER WHEAT...PASTURE...AND
RANGE REMAINED EXTREMELY DRY.  SCURRY COUNTY RECEIVED FROM 0.4 INCH
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. FARMERS WERE
CUTTING TRITICALE FOR HAY.  DRYLAND WHEAT IS CONSIDERED TO BE AT
LEAST A 70 PERCENT LOSS IN MOST CASES.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

SINCE 1 JANUARY...THE FOLLOWING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED:

MIDLAND HAS RECEIVED 1.32 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS 3.09
INCHES.

CARLSBAD HAS HAD 1.16 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND
2.54 INCHES.

MARFA HAS HAD 0.18 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS AROUND 2.53
INCHES.

FORT STOCKTON HAS HAD 1.00 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.  NORMAL IS
AROUND 2.88 INCHES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

ACCORDING TO THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...OR CPC...AS OF 8
MAY...INCREASING CHANCES OF EL NINO DEVELOPING CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE REMAINDER OF 2014...EXCEEDING 65 PERCENT DURING
SUMMER.

THE CPC OUTLOOK FOR JUNE THROUGH AUGUST FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO FORECASTS NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

AS A RESULT OF THE ABOVE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...THE
LATEST U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK...ISSUED 15 MAY BY THE
CPC...INDICATES DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY OR DEVELOP
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS.  DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT OR
REMOVAL IS LIKELY IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND AREAS WEST AND
SOUTH.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY...

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF 15 MAY:

                  NORMAL   POOL    24-HR   MAX DEPTH  % CONSERVATION
RESERVOIR          POOL    TODAY   CHANGE    TODAY       CAPACITY
---------          ----    -----   ------    -----       --------
JB THOMAS        2258.00  2204.21  -0.01      4.21          0.8
COLORADO CITY    2070.20  2048.44  -0.02     33.43         24.1
CHAMPION CREEK   2083.00  2035.88  -0.04     35.86          6.2
NATURAL DAM SALT 2457.00  2447.33   0.00         +         48.6
MOSS CREEK       2337.00  2331.30   0.04     39.30         76.0
BRANTLEY         3256.70  3249.02   0.20     43.02         59.0
AVALON           3177.40  3176.81   0.00      7.81         88.0
RED BLUFF        2827.13  2816.40  -0.01     51.82         54.1

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AS NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

OUR LOCAL DROUGHT WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.WEATHER.GOV/MAF/VERSION.PHP?PIL=DGTMAF&CWI=1&N=0

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:  HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/ NWS...HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

NWS AHPS:  HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/

USGS:  HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:  HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:  HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE IBWC...THE USDA...STATE AND
REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION
CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS
AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2500 CHALLENGER DRIVE
MIDLAND TEXAS 79706
PHONE: 432.563.5006

$$

DEBERRY











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