Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
000
AXUS75 KPSR 262005
DGTPSR
AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-271800-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
100 PM MST THU JUN 26 2014

...DROUGHT SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE REGION...

SYNOPSIS...

THE TYPICAL DRY SPRING WEATHER HAS KEPT DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN TACT
SINCE THE END OF APRIL...WITH SLOWLY INTENSIFYING DROUGHT OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION. PRECIPITATION DEFICITS WILL HOLD UNTIL THE HEART
OF THE MONSOON...WITH HOPES THAT ACTIVITY DURING THE SUMMER SEASON
WILL LOCALLY AID IN REDUCING THE MAGNITUDE OF DROUGHT. SNOWFALL OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH IS UTILIZED IN REFILLING RESERVOIR LEVELS DURING
THE SPRING HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY SPARSE AND HAS MELTED AWAY MONTHS
AGO. AS A RESULT...IMPACTS WITH RESPECT TO FIRE WEATHER AND WATER
USAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGEST DROUGHT CONCERN.

EXTREME DROUGHT HAS EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS ALMOST ALL OF PINAL AND
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES. SEVERE DROUGHT COVERS MUCH OF EASTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY AND LA PAZ COUNTIES...AS WELL AS IMPERIAL AND
RIVERSIDE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. THE LONGER TERM EFFECTS
OF RAINFALL HAS KEPT YUMA COUNTY AND FAR SOUTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY
IN THE MODERATE DROUGHT CATEGORY...WHICH IS STILL SOME MEASURE OF
DETERIORATION SINCE THE EARLY SPRING. CURRENTLY...AROUND 76% OF THE
STATE OF ARIZONA IS AT SEVERE DROUGHT LEVELS OR WORSE...WHICH IS A
NOTABLE DETERIORATION AS COMPARED TO 3 MONTHS AGO WHEN ONLY 57% OF
THE STATE WAS AT SUCH LEVELS.

NEUTRAL EL NINO/LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE TRANSITIONING TOWARDS AN EL
NINO EPISODE EARLY THIS SUMMER. THERE IS STILL NO PREDICTABLE
INFLUENCE ON THE OVERALL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN FROM AN EL NINO
EVENT. THERE IS A 70% CHANCE EL NINO CONDITIONS FULLY DEVELOPING
BY THE END OF THE SUMMER SEASON...WITH BETTER THAN AN 80% CHANCE OF
EL NINO BY THE UPCOMING WINTER SEASON. ONLY MODERATE TO STRONG EL
NINO CYCLES TYPICALLY HAVE A PREDICTABLE WET SIGNAL FOR THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES DURING THE FALL AND WINTER SEASONS...WITH
LITTLE INFLUENCE FROM WEAK EL NINO EPISODES. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS
STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG THIS EL NINO EVENT
WILL BECOME.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

WITH OVER THREE YEARS OF DRIER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS...IMPACTS
HAVE INCLUDED PERIODIC WATER HAULING NECESSARY FOR FARMERS AND
RANCHERS...AND DISTRESSED VEGETATION AND LOSS OF FORAGE ACREAGE.
LIVESTOCK ON REGIONAL RANCHES HAVE SUFFERED THE GREATEST IMPACTS
FROM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. RANGE LAND AND PASTURE CONDITIONS
WORSENED DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR AFTER A PROMISING
START AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WINTER SEASON. MORE THAN HALF OF THE
AREA PASTURE LAND IS RATED AS POOR OR VERY POOR VERSUS JUST 34%
AT THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER...WHILE TOPSOIL MOISTURE IS REPORTED
AS 45% SHORT OR VERY SHORT.

WITH GENERALLY GOOD MONSOON RAINFALL LAST SUMMER AND SUFFICIENTLY
WET CONDITIONS DURING THE AUTUMN AND LATE WINTER...NATIVE
GRASSES...SMALL PLANTS...AND TREES EXPERIENCED GOOD GROWTH.
HOWEVER...ABNORMALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS DURING THE PAST 6
MONTHS HAVE CAUSED THESE NATIVE SMALL PLANTS AND GRASSES TO
DRY RAPIDLY. BOTH 10 HOUR AND 100 HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES
HAVE FALLEN BELOW 5%...WHICH IS UNUSUALLY LOW. THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE DRIED FUELS WILL KEEP A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE FIRE SEASON
GOING UNTIL THE ONSET OF THE MONSOON SEASON.



CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE SEASONAL WATER YEAR (SINCE OCT 1ST) AND CALENDAR YEAR REMAINS
DRIER THAN AVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. MOST OF  THE OVERALL
DEFICITS HAVE OCCURRED SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE CALENDAR
YEAR...WITH THE UPCOMING MONSOON SEASON THE PRIMARY OPPORTUNITY TO
ERASE SOME OF THESE DEFICITS BEFORE THE WINTER SEASON. BELOW IS A
LISTING OF STATIONS AND PRECIPITATION RECORDED SINCE OCTOBER 1 2013
AND JANUARY 1 2014. ALSO INCLUDED ARE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
TOTALS...PERCENT OF NORMAL...AND SEASONAL HISTORICAL RANKINGS
(PLEASE NOTE SOME STATIONS HAVE A MORE LIMITED HISTORY WITH RANKING
NUMBERS NOT AS SIGNIFICANT).


                   SINCE   SINCE    SINCE     PERCENT     RANK
                   OCT 1   JAN 1    OCT 1    OF NORMAL    DRIEST
                   2013    2014     NORMAL
BOUSE AZ           1.73    0.24     3.76        46%       18TH
WICKENBURG AZ      3.97    0.80     7.38        54%       26TH
PHX SKY HARBOR AZ  3.81    0.99     5.33        71%       51ST
SCOTTSDALE AZ      3.83    0.75     7.15        54%       MSG
YUMA AZ            1.18    0.07     2.27        52%       43RD
BLYTHE CA          0.89    0.12     2.62        34%       15TH
TUCSON AZ          3.66    0.61     5.59        65%       35TH
FLAGSTAFF AZ       7.26    3.21    13.66        53%       12TH




PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE APPROXIMATE PROBABILITY VALUES FOR ABOVE...NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION FOR JULY AND THE THREE MONTH PERIOD
OF JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER ARE GIVEN BELOW VALID FOR SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA. THESE NUMBERS
ARE DERIVED FROM OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER AND ARE ACCESSIBLE THROUGH THEIR WEBSITE LISTED BELOW. THE
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK CORRESPONDS TO THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DURING
THE ENTIRE THREE MONTH PERIOD...WHILE THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS
FOR THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE ENTIRE THREE MONTH PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES HAVE NEARLY AN EQUAL CHANCE OF BEING ABOVE...BELOW...OR
NEAR NORMAL DURING THE MONTH OF JULY...AS WELL AS DURING THE 3-MONTH
PERIOD OF JUL-AUG-SEP WITH SOME CHANCE OF WARMER THAN AVERAGE
WEATHER FOCUSED TOWARDS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
FOR THE MONTH OF JULY AS WELL AS THE 3 MONTH PERIOD OF JUL-AUG-SEP
HAVE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF FALLING IN THE ABOVE AVERAGE
CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA.

                               TEMPERATURE         PRECIPITATION
                               PROBABILITY          PROBABILITY
                             ABOVE/NEAR/BELOW     ABOVE/NEAR/BELOW
                                  NORMAL               NORMAL
JULY 2014....................   34 / 33 / 32        33 / 33 / 33
JUL-AUG-SEP 2014.............   37 / 33 / 30        36 / 33 / 31


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

RESERVOIR LEVELS AT THIS POINT OF THE YEAR HAVE NOW FALLEN BEHIND
THOSE OF THE PAST 2 YEARS DUE TO LACK OF SNOW WATER RUNOFF. IT IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS AND RAINFALL DURING THE BEGINNING
OF THE MONSOON SEASON WILL HAVE ANY EFFECT ON RESERVOIR LEVELS.
HOWEVER...IF THE ENTIRE SUMMER MONSOON SEASON CAN ACHIEVE ABOVE
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS...THE OVERALL DEMAND FOR WATER MAY BE
LESSENED ALLOWING RESERVOIR LEVELS TO BE MAINTAINED.

               06/25/14     06/25/13     06/25/12
               --------     --------     --------
ROOSEVELT         44           50           57
HORSE MESA        93           95           93
MORMON FLAT       95           95           96
STEWARD MTN       92           92           92
  TOTAL SALT      53           58           64

HORSESHOE          0            0            0
BARTLETT          72           98           45
  TOTAL VERDE     45           61           28

  TOTAL SYSTEM    52           58           59


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED ON OR AROUND JULY
18TH.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITES:

NWS FORECAST OFFICE PHOENIX...WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM...DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
ARIZONA STATE CLIMATE OFFICE...AZCLIMATE.ASU.EDU
ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF WATER RESOURCES DROUGHT PROGRAM...
  AZWATER.GOV/AZDWR/STATEWIDEPLANNING/DROUGHT
WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER...WRCC.DRI.EDU
USGS WATER RESOURCES OF THE UNITED STATES...WATER.USGS.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

INFORMATION INCLUDED IN THIS STATEMENT WAS COMPILED FROM VARIOUS
FEDERAL...STATE...AND LOCAL AGENCIES.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE  ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE - PHOENIX
PO BOX 52025
PHOENIX AZ 85072
602-275-0073
W-PSR.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.