Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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NMC001>011-019-021-027-028-031-033-037>049-053>061-312359-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
700 AM MST THU MAR 3 2016

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
...FLOOD RISK IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO...

...EXISTING CONDITIONS...

PRECIPITATION...
LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 90-DAY PERIOD HAS BEEN NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST CLIMATE DIVISIONS OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. THE EXCEPTIONS WERE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL TO LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. MEDIUM AND SHORT-TERM PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST 30 AND
60 DAY PERIODS HAS DECREASED SHARPLY IN ALL CLIMATE DIVISIONS AND
WAS BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER THE PAST 30 TO 45 DAYS.

SNOWPACK...
THE CURRENT SNOWPACK AS OF MARCH 1ST IN THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS
RANGES FROM ONLY 29 ERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE SAN FRANCISCO AND
UPPER GILA BASIN...34 PERCENT IN THE ZUNI...BLUEWATER BASIN...TO 89
PERCENT OF THE MEDIAN IN THE RIO GRANDE RIVER BASIN...93 PERCENT IN
THE CANADIAN RIVER BASIN...94 PERCENT IN THE SAN JUAN RIVER
BASIN...100 PERCENT IN THE PECOS RIVER BASIN...TO 126 PERCENT OF
THE MEDIAN IN THE RIO HONDO RIVER BASIN.

RESERVOIR CONSIDERATIONS...
STORAGE REMAINS WELL BELOW NORMAL AT ALL LAKES AND RESERVOIRS IN NEW
MEXICO. THE STATEWIDE AVERAGE IS ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT OF CAPACITY
AS OF MARCH 1ST.

STREAMFLOW...
RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO SUPPORTS PEAK
FLOW CONDITIONS FROM SPRING SNOWMELT IN THE PERIOD FROM MID MAY TO
EARLY JUNE. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCE TYPICAL
PEAK FLOW FROM LATE MARCH TO EARLY APRIL. CURRENT STREAMFLOW
CONDITIONS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SOME GAGE
LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO HAVE INDICATED A LITTLE
RESPONSE TO SPRING SNOWMELT ALREADY FROM THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS. THIS IS DUE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND MUCH WARMER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF FEBRUARY.

DROUGHT...
NO SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. ABNORMALLY
DRY AREAS HAVE EXPANDED RECENTLY ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE STATE.


...OUTLOOKS...

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE...AND
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015
SUGGESTS EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW...NEAR...OR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR
MARCH...APRIL... MAY 2015 STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE STATE. THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR
MARCH...APRIL...MAY 2015 SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
ALL OF NEW MEXICO.

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK...
BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF CURRENT HYDROLOGIC CONDITIONS FROM THE
WINTER SEASON...ENSEMBLE STREAMFLOW PREDICTION FORECASTS AND
HISTORICAL RIVER FLOOD CLIMATOLOGY THERE IS A BELOW AVERAGE FLOOD
RISK FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...DESPITE THE POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THIS SPRING.

HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS STILL TIME IN THE
SNOW ACCUMULATION SEASON FOR CONDITIONS TO CHANGE BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
RUNOFF BEGINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RIVER OR STREAM
FLOODING WOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENT HEAVY SNOWFALL OR RAINFALL WERE
TO OCCUR IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS WHILE SNOW MELT RUNOFF IS PEAKING.

THE ALBUQUERQUE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA IS SERVICED BY THE WEST GULF
RIVER FORECAST CENTER...THE ARKANSAS BASIN RIVER FORECAST
CENTER...AND THE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER. THESE
REGIONAL FORECAST CENTERS ISSUE A VARIETY OF PRODUCTS THROUGHOUT
THE YEAR TO UPDATE THE OUTLOOK FOR WATER RESOURCES. PLEASE VISIT
THE LINKS BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/WGRFC
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABRFC
WWW.CBRFC.NOAA.GOV

YOU CAN ALSO FIND ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION AND FORECASTS ON THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB PAGE AT:

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ABQ

FOR QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS OUTLOOK YOU CAN CONTACT BRIAN
GUYER OR CHUCK JONES...ACTING SERVICE HYDROLOGISTS...AT 505-243-0702
OR BY EMAIL AT BRIAN.GUYER@NOAA.GOV OR CHARLES.H.JONES@NOAA.GOV.

&&

$$

GUYER/JONES


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