Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Albany NY
618 PM EST Fri Jan 19 2018

...Elevated ice jam flood potential where jams are frozen in place
and ongoing flooding due to ice jams on the Hudson and Housatonic
Rivers...

The potential for flooding due to ice jams currently in place is
above normal in the next two weeks. The winter/spring flood
potential not related to ice jams is near normal.

A map of the flood potential outlook, not including ice jam
potential, can be found at:
http://www.weather.gov/nerfc/springfloodpotential

This is the second in a series of hydrologic outlooks issued by the
National Weather Service every two weeks...which refers to the
potential for flooding across eastern New York State, southern
Vermont, Berkshire County Massachusetts and Litchfield County
Connecticut. The major river basins in this area are the Hudson,
Mohawk and Housatonic.

This outlook is valid for the two-week period from January 19th to
February 1st.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

Snow amounts ranged from depths of 1 to 2.5 feet in the western
Adirondacks containing about 2 to 6 inches of liquid equivalent.
Slightly less snowpack exists in the southern Green Mountains in
Vermont into the far northern Berkshires in Massachusetts, with
snowpack depth between 8 and 15 inches, equivalent to about 1 to 3
inches of liquid. Elsewhere in the outlook area, south of the I-90
corridor, snow depth ranges from 2 to 12 inches across Catskills and
across the mid-Hudson Valley into the Taconics, Berkshires and
Litchfield Hills. This equates to generally less than an inch of
liquid equivalent.

...RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...

The breakup of river ice the weekend of January 13th resulted in
multiple ice jams across the service area.

Roads are still closed as a result of two of ice jams at the time of
this outlook:

Route 7 remains closed due to an ice jam about a mile long on the
Housatonic River in Kent, CT.

A five to seven mile long ice jam on the upper Hudson River in New
York from Thurman, NY to the Stony Creek, NY town line has closed
the 418 bridge and a portion of River Road.

Ice jams are currently frozen in place with no flooding currently
observed in the following locations:

On the Mohawk River in New York, an approximately 12 mile ice jam
extends from Rotterdam Junction to just downstream of the Route
146/Rexford Bridge

In addition to the Kent, CT Housatonic River jam, ice jams are also
in place on the Housatonic River in Stockbridge, MA and New Milford,
CT.

An ice jam remains in place on the Hoosic River in Buskirk, NY.

Ice jammed but has thus far not caused flood issues on the West
Canada Creek in Herkimer, NY from Shells Bush Road to the Mohawk
River.

...STREAMFLOW, GROUNDWATER AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...

According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgages, 28 day
streamflow averages across western New England and eastern New York
are generally near to above normal.

According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) wells, groundwater levels
were highly variable and ranged from above normal to below normal.

Soil moisture is near to above normal and the ground is partially
frozen.

...WATER SUPPLY...

New York City Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) water
supply reservoirs are at 80.6 percent of capacity, which is 5.8
percent below normal storage capacity.

Hudson River Black River Regulating District reservoirs in the Black
River and Upper Hudson watersheds are at near to above normal levels
for this time of year. According to the District, the Great
Sacandaga Lake and Indian Lake Reservoir provided 1.93 billion cubic
feet of water storage on January 13, preventing the Hudson River
from reaching flood stage from the Town of Hadley to Fort Edward.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

The 6 to 10 day (for Jan 24 to 28) and 8 to 14 day (for Jan 26 to
Feb 1) outlooks call for a continued active weather pattern, with
above normal temperatures and precipitation in the offing for the
two week outlook period.

...SUMMARY...

Any ice jams that are currently in place are at risk for causing new
or renewed flooding in the event of sufficient river rises.
Several rainfall events are in the two week outlook horizon and
these could cause flooding at ice jams and/or cause ice jams to move
or break up. Those with interests near ice jams currently in place
are urged to closely monitor future forecasts. The ice jam flood
threat will not dissipate until the ice is no longer in place.

The third Winter/Spring Flood Outlook is scheduled for Thursday,
February 1st.

It is important to remember that heavy rain can cause flooding at
any time of year. Extended hydrologic information will be included
in the Hazardous Weather Outlook when necessary at

forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=HWO&issuedby=ALY

Observed and 3 day forecast river information can be found on our
web page at www.weather.gov/albany. Three to seven day ensemble
forecast information can be found at www.weather.gov/erh/mmefs.

$$

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www.weather.gov/albany

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