Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
FGUS71 KBGM 281306
Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
906 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017
...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK NUMBER 9 /FINAL/...
This is the last in a series of regularly scheduled hydrologic
outlooks issued during the Winter and Spring seasons. This
outlook is designed to provide a generalized assessment of river
flood potential (not flash flooding) across Central New York and
Northeast Pennsylvania for the next two weeks.
The overall risk of flooding for the next two weeks is near
average for this time of year.
.PRECIPITATION: Above normal. Precipitation since early February
is averaging about 150 percent higher than normal for the season.
.SNOW COVER AND WATER EQUIVALENT: Normal. There is no snow.
.RIVER ICE COVER: Normal. There is no river ice.
.STREAMFLOW: Above normal. Streamflow averaged over the last
14-28 days was above the 75th percentile of all flows recorded
throughout the history of each stream gauge. Rivers are therefore
considered to be running high for the time of year, although they
are slowly trending down toward baseflows.
.SOILS: Per the Palmer Drought and the Crop Moisture index, the
first several inches of topsoil was considered wet across most of
.RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...Above normal pools. Most all of the
Finger Lakes were running above normal. The NYC Delaware Basin
reservoirs were near total capacity. Lake Wallenpaupack was above
the target level for April.
.FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS: The 6 to 14 day outlook calls for
cooler than average temperatures with above normal precipitation.
.LONG RANGE RIVER MODELING AND PROBABILITY FORECASTS: The
ensemble of river forecast systems indicates generally normal flow
and only very low probabilities of flooding at a few headwater
points for the next two weeks. A climatological analysis of
flooding, using current hydrologic conditions compared to
historical flows, suggests the chance for river flooding during
the two week period is about average.
This outlook estimates the potential for river and lake flooding
based on a current overview of hydro-meteorological factors which
contribute to flooding.
It is important to note that significant flooding does not occur
from snow melt alone. Rainfall, how much and in how short a
period of time, is the most important factor in determining the
severity of flooding. Specific forecasts of heavy rainfall and
flash flooding are not included in this outlook.
This is the final statement for the 2017 flood season. The next
Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued during the first week
in January 2018.