Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-007-009-013
-015-017-019-041915-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
300 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN...
CENTRAL... AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE IS ABOVE NORMAL. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING IS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL IN CENTRAL AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.

THIS IS THE SEVENTH IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOKS ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING SEASON. THESE OUTLOOKS
WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE END OF THE SNOW MELT
SEASON...AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON A
NUMBER OF FACTORS.

...CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE...

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT CONTINUED TO DRAW ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
REGION IS RELAXING SOMEWHAT AS WE ARE SEEING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. WHILE IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS IT DOESN`T LOOK AS THOUGH
WE WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD. TEMPERATURE HAVE MODERATED WITH HIGHS NOW
GETTING INTO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH AND AROUND 40 OR SO IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IN
PORTLAND... CONCORD... AND AUGUSTA ARE 48/51/47. THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL ALSO REMAIN ACTIVE. WE WILL SEE RAIN SOUTH AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION NORTH SATURDAY AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 DAY AND 8 TO 14 DAY FORECAST CALLS FOR BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT...

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM LITTLE IF ANY NEAR THE COAST TO 3 TO 12
INCHES IN SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. IN THE
WINNIPESAUKEE... OSSIPEE LAKE... AND PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AREAS SNOW
DEPTH RANGES FROM 12 TO 22 INCHES. FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTH TO
THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW DEPTH RANGES 8 TO 16 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS
UP TO 2 TO 4 FEET AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500 FEET. PINKHAM NOTCH
REPORTED 48 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT 7 AM THIS MORNING.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES LITTLE IF ANY NEAR THE COAST TO 2 TO 6
INCHES IN SOUTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. IN THE
WINNIPESAUKEE... OSSIPEE LAKE... AND PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AREAS SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES. FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 3 TO
6 INCHES IN THE VALLEYS TO UP TO 12 INCHES AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 1500
FEET. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

...MAINE...

SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE COAST TO 6 TO 22
INCHES FROM SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS TO THE FOOTHILLS. FROM THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 2 TO 4 FEET
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ANDOVER REPORTED 35 INCHES OF SNOW ON
THE GROUND THIS MORNING AND PITTSTON FARM REPORTED 45 INCHES.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES NEAR THE
COAST TO 3 TO 8 FROM SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO THE FOOTHILLS.
FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
RANGES FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. SNOW WATER
EQUIVALENT IS ABOVE NORMAL.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS...

THE LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX SHOWS ABOVE NORMAL
MOISTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. SOIL MOISTURE IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE. AS REPORTED BY
THE USGS GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE BELOW NORMAL IN WESTERN MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE. WITH THE DEEP SNOWPACK IN PLACE IT IS EXPECTED THAT
GROUNDWATER LEVELS WILL RECHARGE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.

RESERVOIR LEVELS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER BASIN WERE 32 PERCENT
FULL WHICH IS 0.6 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIRS IN THE KENNEBEC
BASIN WERE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

WATER SUPPLY SHORTAGES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS SPRING.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVERS IN SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE HAVE SEEN A
DECREASE IN ICE COVER OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO AS HIGHER FLOWS AND
MILDER TEMPERATURES HAVE WORKED TO THIN THE ICE OR WIPE IT OUT
ALTOGETHER. ICE COVER REMAINS IN PLACE IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF MAINE. HERE ICE COVER IS STILL 1 TO 2
FEET THICK. THE COAST GUARD CUT ICE ON THE LOWER KENNEBEC LAST WEEK
TO HELP MITIGATE ANY POTENTIAL ICE JAM ISSUES.

RIVER FLOWS ARE ABOVE NORMAL IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL
MAINE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT AND MELTING SNOW THAT OCCURRED
JUST A FEW DAYS AGO.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
DUE TO SNOWMELT IS ABOVE NORMAL. THE FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO ICE JAMS
IS ABOVE NORMAL IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF MAINE. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH WE WILL
PROCEED INTO THE MIDDLE OF APRIL WITH A DEEP AND WATER LADEN
SNOWPACK IN PLACE. THE HEADWATERS OF MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL
LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AS WE PROCEED
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. THE SNOWPACK IN THESE AREAS IN NOT YET
RIPE AND CAN STILL ABSORB MORE WATER. IN SOUTHERN MAINE AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE THE SNOWPACK IS RIPE... SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT
WILL LIKELY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. THE FARTHER WE PROCEED
INTO THE SPRING SEASON WITH A DEEP SNOWPACK THE GREATER THE RISK OF
A RAPID WARMING ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN A QUICK SNOWMELT
AND MAJOR FLOODING.

MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM SNOW MELT ALONE. RAINFALL...HOW
MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF TIME...IS THE MOST IMPORTANT
FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING.

ANOTHER WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM
FRIDAY APRIL 18.

$$

TFH























































































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