Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FGUS71 KOKX 051718

FGUS71 KOKX 051714

1214 PM EST Fri Jan 5 2018

...Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook...

This is the first winter/spring flood potential outlook in a
series of routine winter/spring flood potential statements
intended to provide insight into the likelihood of river flooding
(not flash flooding) over the Lower Hudson River Valley, Northeast
New Jersey, Southern Connecticut, New York City and Long Island
over the next two weeks.

This outlook is based on current assessment of Hydro-
Meteorological factors which contribute to river flooding. These
factors include recent precipitation, soil moisture, snow cover
and snow water equivalent, river ice, stream flow and future
weather conditions. This outlook does not address the severity of
any future river flooding.

The latest climate prediction center 6 to 10 day outlook valid
from January 10th through January 14th suggests above normal
temperatures and above normal precipitation across the Hydrologic
Service Area. The 8 to 14 day outlook valid from January 12th
through January 18th suggests a continuation of above normal
temperatures and precipitation across the Hydrologic Service

Heavy rainfall is the primary factor which leads to river
flooding. It is important to note that heavy rainfall can rapidly
cause river flooding any time of the year, even when overall river
flooding potential is considered low or below normal.

Current flooding - None.

Precipitation - Precipitation departures across the Hydrologic
Service Area during the last 30 days ending on January 4th have
been between 2 to 4 inches below normal.

Snow depth and Water equivalent - There is currently 2 to 9
inches of snow across northeast New Jersey, 3 to 10 inches of snow
across Lower Hudson Valley, 8 to 13 inches of snow across
southern Connecticut and 8 to 16 inches of snow across New York
City and Long Island. Water equivalent ranged anywhere between
half an inch to two inches across the Hydrologic Service Area.

River flows - Across the local Hydrologic Service Area, rivers
and streams are running below normal. Real-Time Water data can be
found by visiting the USGS at www. usgs.gov/water.

Soil moisture - Below normal. Soil moisture and drought related
data and charts can be seen at: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and

Reservoir conditions - Reservoir levels across the New York City
water supply system are 12 percent below normal. Reservoir levels
across the combined 13 Northeast New Jersey reservoirs are 18
percent below normal.

Summary - Mainly dry conditions are expected during the next two
weeks of this outlook period. There is a potential for a rain
event towards the second week of this outlook period that could
result in minor flooding due to snow clogged drains.

For complete weather information, visit our web site at:

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You can follow us on Twitter at: @NWSNewYorkNY

The next Winter/Spring Flood Outlook will be issued by this
office in two weeks, on January 18th, 2018.


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