Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1228 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

KYC019-043-089-127-OHC009-053-079-087-105-115-127-163-167-VAC027-
051-WVC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-019-021-033-035-039-041-043-
045-047-053-059-067-073-075-079-081-083-085-087-091-095-097-099-
101-105-107-109-240530-
1228 PM EST MON FEB 23 2015

...THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WILL BE CONSIDERED NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE STREAMS IN THE CHARLESTON HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA (HSA). A
NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL GENERALLY MEANS MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
THIS AREA INCLUDES EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...BUCHANAN
AND DICKENSON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND MUCH OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

FOR THE LONG RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING
FLOOD STAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT
SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...REFER TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90 DAY RIVER OUTLOOK IN THE
LEFT HAND COLUMN. CLICK ON FLOOD CHANCE VS NORMAL TO SEE THE RISK OF
FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BIWEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN THE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN HYDRO
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPRING
FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED
CONDITIONS...REALIZING THAT ACTUAL CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE DURING
THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.


PRECIPITATION...
PRECIPITATION HAS AVERAGED NEAR NORMAL.


SOIL CONDITIONS...
SOIL MOISTURE IS NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH ARE GENERALLY
MOIST THIS TIME OF YEAR.


SNOW COVER AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...
GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WATER
EQUIVALENT WAS NOTED ACROSS SE OHIO, NE KENTUCKY, SW VIRGINIA AND
THE LOWLANDS OF WV. 7 TO 27 INCHES OF SNOW WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
WATER EQUIVALENT WAS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OF WV.

RESERVOIR CAPACITY...
RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE AT OR NEAR NORMAL POOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.


RIVER ICE CONDITIONS...
ICE WAS NOTED ON THE HEADWATER STREAMS AND MOST OF THE MAINSTEM
RIVERS.


STREAM FLOWS...
STREAM FLOWS ARE NORMAL ACROSS THE HSA.


THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...
THE OUTLOOK CALLS FOR A EL NINO PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WINTER
FOR THE CHARLESTON HSA. THE STORM TRACKS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...THEN CURVE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD OR OUT
INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. WITHOUT PHASING OF THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS...SIGNIFICANT STORM EVENTS WILL NOT
DEVELOP OR AFFECT THE HSA. AS A RESULT...STREAMFLOWS WILL AVERAGE
NEAR NORMAL WITH OCCASIONAL MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG STREAMS
AND RIVERS IN THE CHARLESTON HSA.

RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LEADING TO FLOODING. HEAVY OR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAN CAUSE FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN
WHERE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS BELOW NORMAL.

$$






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