Extended Streamflow Guidance
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FGUS65 KSTR 171805
ESGAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

FEBRUARY 17, 2015

                        FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
                                ARIZONA

The flood potential for Arizona Rivers and streams is not high at this
time.

Because the nature of flooding in Arizona is associated with rainfall
events versus snow melt it`s difficult to determine with much certainty
the flood threat over a season. Existing streamflow, soil, and snowpack
conditions are analyzed for their potential contribution to streamflow
levels during future rainfall events.

Seasonal October-January precipitation was 90 percent of average in
the Salt-Verde River Basin, 90 percent of average for the Gila Basin and
105 percent for the Little Colorado Basin. January precipitation was
120 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 150 percent in the
Gila River Basin, and 170 percent of average in the Little Colorado Basin.

February 1st snow water equivalent was near 40 percent of average in the
Salt-Verde River Basin, 75 percent of average in the upper Gila,
and 40 percent of average in the Little Colorado River Basin.

Modeled soil moisture states vary with most areas below to near average
at this time. However, the January through May runoff volumes are primarily
influenced by the frequency and magnitude of winter rain events.

Given the forecast of weak ENSO El Nino climate conditions, there is a
chance for above average rainfall over the next few months. The latest
CPC climate forecasts suggest wetter than average precipitation
conditions.


CBRFC

NNNN

$$




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