Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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FGUS65 KSTR 061656
ESGWY
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH


                     SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
          FOR THE GREEN AND BEAR RIVER BASINS IN WYOMING

                       April 5, 2016

The 2016 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is
is not high this at time for the Upper Green and Bear River
basins. However, it should be emphasized that snow typically
accumulates through April, therefore conditions may change before
the runoff begins.

Currently, the following locations forecast to peak above
bankfull or flood flow (for example, there is a 10% chance the Green River
near LaBarge will exceed bankfull):

Bankfull:
Green River near LaBarge               10%

Below average peak flows are expected for southwest
Wyoming based on the current snow conditions. However, it is
important to note that specific forecast procedures and flood
flow levels do not exist for every stream.

March precipitation was above or much above average in all basins across
southwest Wyoming. As of April 1st, water year precipitation is near
average in both the Upper Green above Flaming Gorge
and Bear River basins.

April 1st snow water equivalent for the Upper Green above Flaming Gorge
is 105% of median and 100% of median in the headwaters of the Bear River.

Although spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff and
consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also roughly correspond
to volumetric flows. The current volume forecasts for the April through
July runoff period are below average in all basins located in southwest
Wyoming.

It is also important to keep in mind that an extended period of
much above normal temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt
period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any
year, regardless of snowpack conditions.

The spring runoff flood potential will be re-evaluated in mid April and an updated
product will be issued at that time

A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak

CBRFC/A.Nielson,P.Miller

$$








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